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John Kari U District in the Regional Context

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1 John Kari U District in the Regional Context
Hazel Reinhardt The New Demographic & Economic Realities Mary Bujold Market and Economic Factors

2 University District in the Regional Context
John Kari

3 “Big Picture” trends and influences:
25% more residents projected for the District by 2030 31% more households 15% more jobs U student enrollment expected to remain stable (50,000)

4 Origin of workers per acre
Metropolitan Design Center University/ Midway Employment 64,000 Density 14 jobs/acre Origin of workers per acre

5 University/ Midway Employment: 64,000 One dot = 25 workers
Commuter Characteristics 26% within 5 miles 29% 5-10 miles 23% miles 12% miles 3% miles 5% 25+ miles

6 More people, greater diversity
Trend 1: More people, greater diversity

7 More people, greater diversity
Trend 1: More people, greater diversity 70,000 60,000 Twin Cities residents new to the US 50,000 Racial minority 40,000 30,000 20,000 White 10,000 * *

8 More people, greater diversity
Trend 1: More people, greater diversity 250 Metro minority population 560,000 in 2006 Minority share of region: 9% in 1990 17% in 2000 20% in 2006 Black 200 Asian or Pacific 150 Hispanic 100 In migration is a major source of our regions growth. We gain residents from the surrounding states and increasingly from elsewhere in the US and internationally. Our population is changing as can be seen by the chart. Today nearly 20 percent, 1 in 5 Twin City Area residents are people of color. We are becoming more like the rest of the country. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900 and 2000 Census and American Community Survey No data was available for Carver County for 2006. Multi-Racial 50 American Indian 1990 2000 2006

9 A baby boomer enters their 60s every 7 seconds in America.
Trend 1: More people, greater diversity A baby boomer enters their 60s every 7 seconds in America. More than nine-in-ten 65 and older live in their own home or apartment (Pew 2009)

10 More people, greater diversity
Trend 1: More people, greater diversity More kids More Working Age More Elderly

11 The economy is shifting
Trend 2: The economy is shifting

12 Population grows and job stagnant
Trend 2: The economy is shifting Population grows and job stagnant 400,000 Employment 350,000 Population 300,000 349,000 353,000 339,000 250,000 303,000 290,000 200,000 261,000 233,000 Source: QCEW employment for 7-county region, online 2/12/08, 2Q. 150,000 185,000 207,000 100,000 121,000 111,000 50,000 24,000 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

13 The Metro Area is Downtown Minneapolis centered
Trend 3:

14 Transportation shapes development
Trend 4: Transitways replace the “Freeway” as dominate shaper of metro land use patterns

15 More green, more open space
Trend 5: More green, more open space Natural environment Parks and trails Region’s most attractive feature

16 More green, more open space
Trend 5: More green, more open space “Sorry, Dick but I’m reducing our carbon footprint.”

17 THE NEW DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC REALITIES
Hazel Reinhardt

18 POPULATION PROJECTIONS
More people and more diversity in the region But an aging population not like

19 WHY THE AGING POPULATION MATTERS
Population aging is unprecedented Population has been young historically Population aging is pervasive A global phenomenon affecting every man, woman and child Population aging is enduring We will not return to the young populations that our ancestors knew Population aging has profound implications for many facets of human life

20 POPULATION AGING Population and household projections for the region differ State Demographic Center Metropolitan Council Only the State Demographic Center’s projections are by age

21 POPULATION PROJECTIONS
2000 2010 2020 2030 State Demographic Center 2,642,056 2,906,470 3,134,270 3,286,970 Met Council 3,005,000 3,334,000 3,608,000

22 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS
2000 2010 2020 2030 State Demographic Center 1,021,456 1,141,070 1,253,360 1,335,970 Met Council 1,198,000 1,362,000 1,492,000

23 POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Trend in the same direction, i.e., slower growth But by 2030, difference of 10% in projected population and 12% in projected households Migration assumptions are different State Demographic Center Based on a U.S. pool of migrants U.S. population will continue to shift to the West and Sunbelt In-migration rates are reduced for Minnesota over time Out-migration rates are increased for Minnesota over time

24 POPULATION PROJECTIONS
The 2008 population estimates track well with the State Demographic Center projections for 2010 Region 2,870,250—2008 estimate 2,906,470—2010 projection Births down in 2008 and most likely will be down in 2009 The recession has slowed immigration from abroad and domestic movement

25 POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Change United States 10.2% 10.0% 9.4% White, not Hispanic 3.2% 2.2% 1.0% Minnesota 10.7% 9.1% Metro Area (11-County) 13.2% 10.3% 6.8% Region State 7.8% 4.9% Met Council 13.7% 10.9% 8.2%

26 GROWTH BASED ON IMMIGRANTS
New immigrants quite heterogeneous in educational attainment and English-speaking skills Varies by region of origin 62% from Mexico and Central America lack a high school diploma 56% from Asia hold a bachelor’s or higher degree Source: Educational Testing Service, America’s Perfect Storm, Three Forces Changing our Nation’s Future, 2007

27 POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY AGE
2000 2010 2020 2030 < 20 yrs 768,028 778,740 818,740 838,980 20-24 yrs 173,732 200,940 188,300 203,910 25-44 yrs 880,479 831,910 870,930 863,960 45-64 yrs 564,572 787,320 809,920 760,880 65+ yrs 255,245 307,560 446,380 619,240 Total 2,642,056 2,906,470 3,134,270 3,286,970 Source: State Demographic Center

28 POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY AGE
Change by Age Group Age Group Number Percentage 20-24 yrs +2,970 1.5 25-44 yrs +32,050 3.9 45-64 yrs -26,440 -3.4 65+ yrs +311,680 101.3 Total 320,260 15.1 Source: State Demographic Center

29 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
2000 2010 2020 2030 15-24 yrs 56,489 62,880 57,070 61,660 25-44 yrs 467,580 430,200 449,690 446,980 45-64 yrs 333,955 461,910 481,790 453,880 65+ yrs 163,430 186,100 264,830 373,490 Sum 1,021,454 1,141,090 1,253,380 1,336,010 Note: sum is slightly different than the total household projections Source: State Demographic Center

30 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
Change by Age of Householder Age Number Percentage 15-24 yrs -1,220 -1.9 25-44 yrs 16,780 3.9 45-64 yrs -8,030 -1.7 65+ yrs 187,390 100.7 Total 194,920 17.1 Source: State Demographic Center

31 BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS

32 THE UPSHOT 96% of the increase is in households with householders 65+ years of age More sellers than buyers??? 41% of the increase in households is in persons living alone

33 LOOKING TO THE FUTURE The immediate past is not much guidance
Greater risk of “misjudging” the market

34 U.S. INCOME BY RACE/ETHNICITY 2007
Median Household Median Married Couples Per Capita All races $50,233 $72,785 $26,412 White, not-Hispanic $54,920 $77,472 $30,369 Black $33,916 $62,204 $17,895 Asian $66,103 $84,538 $29,896 Hispanic $38,679 $48,572 $15,205 Source: Census Bureau

35 U.S. INCOME BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE 2007
Median Household Income Married-couple families $72,785 Female-headed families $33,370 Nonfamily households $30,170 Female householder $24,294 Male householder $36,767 Source: Census Bureau

36 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Today, Minnesota’s employment and unemployment trends primarily due to the Twin Cities region Historically, Minnesota had a lower unemployment rate than the U.S. Two rates began converging in late 2006 Minnesota has higher labor force participation rates

37 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES June 2009 (Seasonally Adjusted) 8.4% Minnesota

38 LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES 2007
Total 72.9% Minnesota (ranked #3) 66.0% U.S. Female 67.6% Minnesota 59.3% U.S.

39 LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES 2007
Blacks 73.7% Minnesota 63.7% U.S. Hispanics 83.8% Minnesota 68.8% U.S.

40 EMPLOYMENT Number of employed (jobs) is down Recession is severe
Job vacancies fell 38.6% during the fourth quarter 2008 58% of vacant positions in the region

41 MN JOB GROWTH SLUGGISH 2005-07 What we know: Reasons:
While U.S. employment grew in 8 of 11 sectors, Minnesota had increases in only 5 sectors with losses in the other six sectors Reasons: Signs of housing slowdown in construction and banking Structural changes in information and air transportation Little benefit from national oil/gas or defense spending

42 FUTURE Economy shifting? Minnesota
Economists believe that post recession, some sectors will be smaller, i.e., the economy will have a different structure Minnesota Unclear, but can’t take a robust job market for granted A robust job market is closely linked with rapid population growth

43 FUTURE University District Population, housing and employment
Vision and leadership critical

44 MARKET and ECONOMIC FACTORS
Mary Bujold

45 General Housing Trends
Continued Over-Supply in the For-Sale Market Moderate increase in Vacancies in the Rental Market Stability in the Senior Housing Market Stability in the Student Housing Market 45

46 Factors Affecting Demand
Job Growth Minnesota The Nation In-migration/Outmigration Relocations Student Enrollment Undergraduate Graduate 46

47 For-Sale Housing Market
Lender-Mediated Sales Traditional Sales 7/08=23.8% 7/09=25.2% 7/08-7/09=-20.0% Median Price = $120,000 New listings up 7/08-7/09=-7.1% Median Price = $209,000 New listings down 47

48 For-Sale Housing Market
48

49 Apartment Market Trends
Flight to Quality for New Upscale Rentals Older rentals feeling the pinch as employment grows and some renters double up or move in with relatives Delaying purchasing a home to wait out the downturn in the market despite the tax incentive (job mobility concerns) 49

50 Apartment Rents and Vacancies
50

51 Senior Housing Trends 51

52 Metro Senior Vacancy Rates
52

53 Distribution of Senior Housing
53

54 Commercial Office/Retail Trends
Most opportunities expected in high-density areas where infrastructure is in place Density feeds retail demand Tenants looking as tenants lock in discounts New development in the outlying areas expected to remain down substantially for the foreseeable future 54

55 Industrial Market Trends
Manufacturing jobs have been the hardest hit; Bulk warehouse has been a bright spot in the market Minnesota exports set a record in 2007 Vacancy in the Mpls. Market fell to 7.4% 55

56 General Lifestyle Trends
Convenience still reigns supreme but at a lower price Simplify lifestyles More concern about the environment Leave the car at home more More technology, but is it simplifying our lives or just complicating them more (better integration) 56

57 Boomer Lifestyle Trends
Desire among baby boomers to lead healthy, active lives. Redefining life “Beyond 60” “Balance” will deepen as a dominant health and wellness ideology. Seeking symbolic expressions of “simplicity.” “Vitality” as an overall measure of health and well-being. 57

58 Boomer Lifestyle Trends
Two major housing trends within the boomer group: Downsizing (rightsizing) Upsizing (affluent) Most boomers plan to continue working in retirement Turning hobbies into new careers. Caring for children and aging parents. 58

59 Minnesota’s Competition
Top 10 Knowledge Worker Metros Mpls./St. Paul Not on the List Top 10 Metros for Business and Careers Mpls./St. Paul not on the list 87th on the list of projected population change for 250 top Metro Areas 23rd on the list of hottest job markets as of 2005, but this has declined since then 59


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