1. John Kari U District in the Regional Context
Hazel Reinhardt The New Demographic & Economic Realities
Mary Bujold Market and Economic Factors

2. University District in the Regional Context
John Kari

3. “Big Picture” trends and influences:
25% more residents projected for the District by 2030
31% more households
15% more jobs
U student enrollment expected to remain stable (50,000)

4. Origin of workers per acre
Metropolitan Design Center
University/ Midway
Employment
64,000
Density
14 jobs/acre
Origin of workers per acre

5. University/ Midway Employment: 64,000 One dot = 25 workers
Commuter Characteristics
26% within 5 miles
29% 5-10 miles
23% miles
12% miles
3% miles
5% 25+ miles

6. More people, greater diversity
Trend 1:
More people, greater diversity

7. More people, greater diversity
Trend 1:
More people, greater diversity
70,000
60,000
Twin Cities residents new to the US
50,000
Racial
minority
40,000
30,000
20,000
White
10,000 * *

8. More people, greater diversity
Trend 1:
More people, greater diversity
250
Metro minority population
560,000 in 2006
Minority share of region:
9% in 1990
17% in 2000
20% in 2006
Black
200
Asian or
Pacific
150
Hispanic
100
In migration is a major source of our regions growth.
We gain residents from the surrounding states and increasingly from elsewhere in the US and internationally.
Our population is changing as can be seen by the chart. Today nearly 20 percent, 1 in 5 Twin City Area residents are people of color. We are becoming more like the rest of the country.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900 and 2000 Census and American Community Survey No data was available for Carver County for 2006.
Multi-Racial 50
American
Indian
1990
2000
2006

9. A baby boomer enters their 60s every 7 seconds in America.
Trend 1:
More people, greater diversity
A baby boomer enters their 60s every 7 seconds in America.
More than nine-in-ten 65 and older live in their own home or apartment (Pew 2009)

10. More people, greater diversity
Trend 1:
More people, greater diversity
More kids
More Working Age
More Elderly

11. The economy is shifting
Trend 2:
The economy is shifting

12. Population grows and job stagnant
Trend 2:
The economy is shifting
Population grows and job stagnant
400,000
Employment
350,000
Population
300,000
349,000
353,000
339,000
250,000
303,000
290,000
200,000
261,000
233,000
Source: QCEW employment for 7-county region, online 2/12/08, 2Q.
150,000
185,000
207,000
100,000
121,000
111,000
50,000
24,000
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s

13. The Metro Area is Downtown Minneapolis centered
Trend 3:

14. Transportation shapes development
Trend 4:
Transitways replace the “Freeway” as dominate shaper of metro land use patterns

15. More green, more open space
Trend 5:
More green, more open space
Natural environment
Parks and trails
Region’s most attractive feature

16. More green, more open space
Trend 5:
More green, more open space
“Sorry, Dick but I’m reducing our carbon footprint.”

17. THE NEW DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC REALITIES
Hazel Reinhardt

18. POPULATION PROJECTIONS
More people and more diversity in the region
But an aging population
not like

19. WHY THE AGING POPULATION MATTERS
Population aging is unprecedented
Population has been young historically
Population aging is pervasive
A global phenomenon affecting every man, woman and child
Population aging is enduring
We will not return to the young populations that our ancestors knew
Population aging has profound implications for many facets of human life

20. POPULATION AGING
Population and household projections for the region differ
State Demographic Center
Metropolitan Council
Only the State Demographic Center’s projections are by age

21. POPULATION PROJECTIONS
2000
2010
2020
2030
State Demographic Center
2,642,056
2,906,470
3,134,270
3,286,970
Met Council
3,005,000
3,334,000
3,608,000

22. HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS
2000
2010
2020
2030
State Demographic Center
1,021,456
1,141,070
1,253,360
1,335,970
Met Council
1,198,000
1,362,000
1,492,000

23. POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Trend in the same direction, i.e., slower growth
But by 2030, difference of 10% in projected population and 12% in projected households
Migration assumptions are different
State Demographic Center
Based on a U.S. pool of migrants
U.S. population will continue to shift to the West and Sunbelt
In-migration rates are reduced for Minnesota over time
Out-migration rates are increased for Minnesota over time

24. POPULATION PROJECTIONS
The 2008 population estimates track well with the State Demographic Center projections for 2010
Region
2,870,250—2008 estimate
2,906,470—2010 projection
Births down in 2008 and most likely will be down in 2009
The recession has slowed immigration from abroad and domestic movement

25. POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Change
United States
10.2%
10.0%
9.4%
White, not Hispanic
3.2%
2.2%
1.0%
Minnesota
10.7%
9.1%
Metro Area (11-County)
13.2%
10.3%
6.8%
Region
State
7.8%
4.9%
Met Council
13.7%
10.9%
8.2%

26. GROWTH BASED ON IMMIGRANTS
New immigrants quite heterogeneous in educational attainment and English-speaking skills
Varies by region of origin
62% from Mexico and Central America lack a high school diploma
56% from Asia hold a bachelor’s or higher degree
Source: Educational Testing Service, America’s Perfect Storm, Three Forces Changing our Nation’s Future, 2007

27. POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY AGE
2000
2010
2020
2030
< 20 yrs
768,028
778,740
818,740
838,980
20-24 yrs
173,732
200,940
188,300
203,910
25-44 yrs
880,479
831,910
870,930
863,960
45-64 yrs
564,572
787,320
809,920
760,880
65+ yrs
255,245
307,560
446,380
619,240
Total
2,642,056
2,906,470
3,134,270
3,286,970
Source: State Demographic Center

28. POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY AGE
Change by Age Group
Age Group
Number
Percentage
20-24 yrs
+2,970
1.5
25-44 yrs
+32,050
3.9
45-64 yrs
-26,440
-3.4
65+ yrs
+311,680
101.3
Total
320,260
15.1
Source: State Demographic Center

29. HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
2000
2010
2020
2030
15-24 yrs
56,489
62,880
57,070
61,660
25-44 yrs
467,580
430,200
449,690
446,980
45-64 yrs
333,955
461,910
481,790
453,880
65+ yrs
163,430
186,100
264,830
373,490
Sum
1,021,454
1,141,090
1,253,380
1,336,010
Note: sum is slightly different than the total household projections
Source: State Demographic Center

30. HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
Change by Age of Householder
Age
Number
Percentage
15-24 yrs
-1,220
-1.9
25-44 yrs
16,780
3.9
45-64 yrs
-8,030
-1.7
65+ yrs
187,390
100.7
Total
194,920
17.1
Source: State Demographic Center

31. BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS

32. THE UPSHOT
96% of the increase is in households with householders 65+ years of age
More sellers than buyers???
41% of the increase in households is in persons living alone

33. LOOKING TO THE FUTURE The immediate past is not much guidance
Greater risk of “misjudging” the market

34. U.S. INCOME BY RACE/ETHNICITY 2007
Median Household
Median
Married Couples
Per
Capita
All races
$50,233
$72,785
$26,412
White, not-Hispanic
$54,920
$77,472
$30,369
Black
$33,916
$62,204
$17,895
Asian
$66,103
$84,538
$29,896
Hispanic
$38,679
$48,572
$15,205
Source: Census Bureau

35. U.S. INCOME BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE 2007
Median Household Income
Married-couple families
$72,785
Female-headed families
$33,370
Nonfamily households
$30,170
Female householder
$24,294
Male householder
$36,767
Source: Census Bureau

36. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
Today, Minnesota’s employment and unemployment trends primarily due to the Twin Cities region
Historically, Minnesota had a lower unemployment rate than the U.S. Two rates began converging in late 2006
Minnesota has higher labor force participation rates

37. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES June 2009 (Seasonally Adjusted) 8.4% Minnesota

38. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES 2007
Total
72.9% Minnesota (ranked #3)
66.0% U.S.
Female
67.6% Minnesota
59.3% U.S.

39. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES 2007
Blacks
73.7% Minnesota
63.7% U.S.
Hispanics
83.8% Minnesota
68.8% U.S.

40. EMPLOYMENT Number of employed (jobs) is down Recession is severe
Job vacancies fell 38.6% during the fourth quarter 2008
58% of vacant positions in the region

41. MN JOB GROWTH SLUGGISH 2005-07 What we know: Reasons:
While U.S. employment grew in 8 of 11 sectors, Minnesota had increases in only 5 sectors with losses in the other six sectors
Reasons:
Signs of housing slowdown in construction and banking
Structural changes in information and air transportation
Little benefit from national oil/gas or defense spending

42. FUTURE Economy shifting? Minnesota
Economists believe that post recession, some sectors will be smaller, i.e., the economy will have a different structure
Minnesota
Unclear, but can’t take a robust job market for granted
A robust job market is closely linked with rapid population growth

43. FUTURE University District Population, housing and employment
Vision and leadership critical

44. MARKET and ECONOMIC FACTORS
Mary Bujold

45. General Housing Trends
Continued Over-Supply in the For-Sale Market
Moderate increase in Vacancies in the Rental Market
Stability in the Senior Housing Market
Stability in the Student Housing Market 45

46. Factors Affecting Demand
Job Growth
Minnesota
The Nation
In-migration/Outmigration
Relocations
Student Enrollment
Undergraduate
Graduate 46

47. For-Sale Housing Market
Lender-Mediated Sales
Traditional Sales
7/08=23.8% 7/09=25.2%
7/08-7/09=-20.0%
Median Price = $120,000
New listings up
7/08-7/09=-7.1%
Median Price = $209,000
New listings down 47

48. For-Sale Housing Market48

49. Apartment Market Trends
Flight to Quality for New Upscale Rentals
Older rentals feeling the pinch as employment grows and some renters double up or move in with relatives
Delaying purchasing a home to wait out the downturn in the market despite the tax incentive (job mobility concerns) 49

50. Apartment Rents and Vacancies50

51. Senior Housing Trends 51

52. Metro Senior Vacancy Rates52

53. Distribution of Senior Housing53

54. Commercial Office/Retail Trends
Most opportunities expected in high-density areas where infrastructure is in place
Density feeds retail demand
Tenants looking as tenants lock in discounts
New development in the outlying areas expected to remain down substantially for the foreseeable future 54

55. Industrial Market Trends
Manufacturing jobs have been the hardest hit;
Bulk warehouse has been a bright spot in the market
Minnesota exports set a record in 2007
Vacancy in the Mpls. Market fell to 7.4% 55

56. General Lifestyle Trends
Convenience still reigns supreme but at a lower price
Simplify lifestyles
More concern about the environment
Leave the car at home more
More technology, but is it simplifying our lives or just complicating them more (better integration) 56

57. Boomer Lifestyle Trends
Desire among baby boomers to lead healthy, active lives.
Redefining life “Beyond 60”
“Balance” will deepen as a dominant health and wellness ideology.
Seeking symbolic expressions of “simplicity.”
“Vitality” as an overall measure of health and well-being. 57

58. Boomer Lifestyle Trends
Two major housing trends within the boomer group:
Downsizing (rightsizing)
Upsizing (affluent)
Most boomers plan to continue working in retirement
Turning hobbies into new careers.
Caring for children and aging parents. 58

59. Minnesota’s Competition
Top 10 Knowledge Worker Metros
Mpls./St. Paul Not on the List
Top 10 Metros for Business and Careers
Mpls./St. Paul not on the list
87th on the list of projected population change for 250 top Metro Areas
23rd on the list of hottest job markets as of 2005, but this has declined since then 59