1. Wood Raw Materials Timber Committee forecasts by Mr. Volker Sasse
Expert presentation
by Bengt Hillring, Associate Professor,
Swedish University of Agriculture Science, Uppsala, Sweden
No time for presentation of all developments in detail (all sub-products, all countries);
Focus on major shifts in production, trade and consumption of roundwood in the four sub-regions
Discuss with you about the possible reasons for these developments, reviewing the policy and market framework for roundwood production in ECE.

2. Highlights of Forest Products Annual Market Review 2001-2002 (1 of 5)
Wood Raw Materials
Highlights of Forest Products Annual Market Review (1 of 5)
EU/EFTA sub-region:
Roundwood prices weakened in 2001, in particular due to the storm-generated oversupply.
Forest owners reduced their supply.
14% drop in exports.

3. Highlights of Forest Products Annual Market Review 2001-2002 (2 of 5)
Wood Raw Materials
Highlights of Forest Products Annual Market Review (2 of 5)
Other Europe sub-region:
Steady significant growth.
Approaching saturation during last few years.
Decreasing net-exports after strong growth during the 90s.

4. Highlights of Forest Products Annual Market Review 2001-2002 (3 of 5)
Wood Raw Materials
Highlights of Forest Products Annual Market Review (3 of 5)
CIS sub-region:
Increasing removals in 2001.
CIS increased exports by 20%.
Russian export prices increased by 5% in 2001.
Consumption of roundwood decreased by over 2% in Russia.

5. Highlights of Forest Products Annual Market Review 2001-2002 (4 of 5)
Wood Raw Materials
Highlights of Forest Products Annual Market Review (4 of 5)
North America:
United States roundwood production decreased by 40 million m3 between 1999 and 2001, Canada by 15 million m3.
Slight growth of removals forecasted for 2003.

6. Highlights of Forest Products Annual Market Review 2001-2002 (5 of 5)
Wood Raw Materials
Highlights of Forest Products Annual Market Review (5 of 5)
Significant changes in trade flows
The biofuel trade has increased rapidly in Europe

7. Industrial Roundwood Removals
Wood Raw Materials
Industrial Roundwood Removals
The biggest sub-region north America
Interesting - significant developments in the US; rather steep decrease from 1999 to 2001, while the forecast starts from a return back to a very tiny growth forecasted for 2002 and 2003
For EU-EFTA nothing exiting beside the storms, Europe is on the way back to former trends of removals
CIS deep depression after the collapse of planned economies, remarkable growth since 1998, when the Rubel went down, moderate growth in 2001 the same is forecasted for 2002 – 2003 (too pessimistic)
CEEC steep growth of removals, steady with the exception in 1996 slight decrease in 2001, moderated growth forecasted. Is this the end of transition dynamics? Have we reached a certain saturation in the Eastern Europe ?? (too pessimistic)

8. EU/EFTA Wood Raw Materials
Typical development after storms, mainly affected France, Germany, Switzerland and Denmark.
Weak prices caused decrease in supply. in particular by the state in order to support consolidation of the markets
Processing industry used stocks. The forecast reflect that.
The biofuel trade, including wood pellets, briquettes, sawdust and chips, has increased rapidly in particular Europe over the past ten years, in large part spurred by favourable energy policies and technological developments. This segment is still rather minor and the share in the supply market of materials for energy generation negligible.
Export prices the first rise since 1996
Tendency: slight increase of net-imports,
Strong increase of imports, slight tendency of decreasing exports
34.2 millionen m3 net-import beside the fact that some countries like France, Germany and Switzerland are net-exporter

9. Theory Wood Raw Materials
After the collapse and crises transition countries develop first resources roundwood (easy accessible, no high-tech)
Exports because of weak domestic demand, with possible consequences for surrounding markets; western Europe, China, Japan
Length and deepness depends on investments/domestic consumption.
After a certain period the system reaches a quasi saturation under market conditions and is developing like other comparable countries.
The theory is applicable as for an regional analysis (CEEC is more advanced as CIS) as well as for a analysis over various forest products resources goes first and processed products follow later on.
This is a scheme, real developments have probably a significant volatility.

10. Other Europe Wood Raw Materials
Dynamic steady nearly steady growth, but approaching (see forecast) saturation
Strong growth of exports up to 2000 Forecasts show a slight decrease of net-exports (closing the bubble)

11. Wood Raw Materials
CIS
Collapse, crisis, recovery: strong increase of production since 1997/98
Stagnation by statistics in The same is forecasted.
Strong growth of exports. Forecasted slow down.

12. Export of forest products in Russia (share of global trade, percent)
Wood Raw Materials
Export of forest products in Russia (share of global trade, percent)
Roundwood
sawnwood
Illustrate the “theory”, when analysing different products in the chain between resources and further processed products: significant share of roundwood trade, while pulp and paper as well sawnwod is still on a rather low level.
Paper and paperboard

13. North America Wood Raw Materials
Rapid decrease shown in statistics up to 2001, the main reason seems to be protection measures in state forest
But Canada too???
The forecast looks shows a radical turn back f this development to slight increase of removals in 2003

14. share of global average trade
Wood Raw Materials
122.7 million m3
84.5 million m3
Significant changes in trade flows, mainly due to a further progress towards a market approach in Eastern European economies:
Remarkable: CIS to EU/EFTA 12%: increase nearly 80 % between 1996 and 1999 slowing down in 2000.
CIS to non-ECE 11.5 %: (from Russia to Japan and China): doubling between 1998 and 2000
CEEC to EU/EFTA 13%: also doubled, but over longer time
Possibly consequences for the forest owners (-) and the wood processing industry in EU/EFTA (+) :
Intra trade in EU/EFTA (some times the roundwood is not even arriving in the destination country but further traded to other EU/EFTa countries.
share of global average trade

15. European Wood Energy Markets
Next presentation
Bengt Hillring, Associate Professor,
Swedish University of Agriculture Science,
Uppsala, Sweden
European Wood Energy Markets