1. Population
Terms and Concepts

2. Population growth has placed stress on environment
Farms and erodes soils
Fishes and depletes oceans
Mines and consumes minerals/fuels
Builds and cuts/destroys forests
All of this made more problematic by 4-fold pop. increases in 20th century
And for context…only 30% of earth is land. Only fraction (1/3) of that is habitable/arable

3. How 7 Billion Occurs
grows-to-7-billion

4. FOOD SUPPLY
Green Revolution helped stem hunger from pop. growth in 1960s
High meat consumption may lead to global food crisis

5. HEALTH Rapid pop. growth can cause disease “reservoirs”
Epidemics/pandemics happen or possible
Infant/child mortality

6. STATUS OF WOMEN
Pop. reduction responsibilities have fallen largely on women
WHY? – Because low status = fewer rights
Female infanticide/abandonment
Education of women
FACT – there is an inverse proportion of education level of women and population pop. growth

7. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE
reports the average number of children born to a woman of childbearing age

8. Why are women having fewer children:
Later marriage
Delaying childbirth (these two are different)
Higher cost of raising children
Urbanization
Status of women
Higher education levels
Higher economic status
Germany Statistic – In 2008, 39% of German women had reached the age of 40 without having had a child

9. 3rd and 4th full paragraph on Page 35 – DISCUSSION
Immigrants and paying taxes

10. Distribution
describes population locations on the Earth’s surface (where people live)
MAP – Pages 40-41

11. Density measures number of people per unit area (per Mile/km)
MAP – Pages 42-43

12. Arithmetic Population Density
pop. as an avg. per unit area. Dividing pop. by the AREAL unit (#sq mi/km)

13. Physiologic Population Density
number of people per unit area of ARABLE land
?Which is more accurate?

14. How about Egypt as an example – pg. 40-41
A.P.D. – 190 / mile
P.P.D. – 6,319 / mile (in 2004)
Egypt is said to be the most densely populated country in the world in terms of “useable land”

16. Major Population Concentrations
MAPS – study
Let’s play “Where’s Waldo” – Look at Australia, Saudi Arabia, Java, China, Canada - others
East Asia
South Asia
Europe
North America

17. MEGALOPOLIS Or CONURBATION
“Tokaido” in Japan

18. “Bosnywash” in US

19. INFORMATION NOT IN YOUR TEXT
Megacities
Top Ten Cities –
Name
Population 1
New York, USA
12,463,000 2
London, United Kingdom
8,860,000 3
Tokyo, Japan
7,000,000 4
Paris, France
5,900,000 5
Shanghai, China
5,406,000 6
Moscow, Russia
5,100,000 7
Buenos Aires, Argentina
5,000,000 8
Chicago, USA
4,906,000 9
Ruhr, Germany
4,900,000 10
Kolkata, India
4,800,000

20. Top Twenty Cities – 2010
1. Tokyo-Yokohama, Japan - 33,200, New York, United States - 17,800, Sao Paulo, Brazil - 17,700, Seoul-Incheon, South Korea - 17,500, Mexico City, Mexico - 17,400, Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto, Japan - 16,425, Manila, Philippines - 14,750, Mumbai, India (formerly Bombay) - 14,350, Jakarta, Indonesia - 14,250, Lagos, Nigeria - 13,400, Kolkata, India - 12,700, Delhi, India - 12,300, Cairo, Egypt - 12,200, Los Angeles, United States - 11,789, Buenos Aires, Argentina - 11,200, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - 10,800, Moscow, Russia - 10,500, Shanghai, China - 10,000, Karachi, Pakistan - 9,800, Paris, France - 9,645,000
Population is not distributed evenly, however – Again, Study maps on pages 40-43

21. ‘J’ and ‘S’ Curves in demography

24. Geographic Models – always remember models are just models – not reality

25. GEOGRAPHIC MODELS First, Models are JUST models
Discuss the purpose of the model. What does the model do?
Basic assumptions of the model
Description and analysis of the model (zones)
Usefulness and/or applications of the model

26. Demographic Transition Model – page 54 http://www. geographyalltheway

27. Demographic Transition http://envirosci

28. Now, let’s apply the model

29. Now, let’s apply the model some more
ulation/population_change_rev1.shtml

30. Population Dynamics Let’s let Hans help explain - 15 min.
Natural Increase – difference between number of births and the number of deaths in specific period
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) - # live births per year per 1000 population
Crude Death Rate (CDR) - # deaths per year per 1000 pop.
Infant Mortality - # deaths per 1000 before 1st birthday – map   periphery 10-core
Child Mortality - # deaths per 1000 before 5th birthday
What do these two numbers tell us? Compare and Contrast these two. What gender issues are there with IM and CM?
Let’s let Hans help explain - 15 min.
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31. Population Dynamics
Look at the map on page Examine it and tell me about Mexico and the US. Why is Mexico’s mortality rate lower than the US?
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) - # of children born to women of child-bearing age 
Total Fertility Rate – remember, the births/woman/lifetime 6-7 periphery 1-2 core
China:

32. Population Dynamics 57 - Life Expectancy – map 60-61
Natural Increase or Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) – annual growth rate as a percentage
Simply - number of births minus the number of deaths 
IMPORTANT – Gains and losses through migration are not counted in RNI

33. Figuring Rate of Natural Increase
r = b-d
"r" is variously referred to as the "rate of natural increase" or the "per capita rate of increase" of the population, or as the "rate of net reproduction per individual." It is essentially the probability that any individual in the population will give birth during the time interval (usually year), discounted for their probability of dying.

34. OR…
Crude Death Rate – gross # of deaths
Crude Birth Rate – gross # of births
CBR – CDR = RNI
These are expressed per 1,000 population
Current global CBR is 21/1,000
Current global CDR Is 9/1,000
So, that equals a natural growth rate of ___ 12/1,000
Or, expressed in a percentage = a global growth of 1.2% per year
The word “percent” means per So, move the decimal over one place on each number and you get 1.2 per 100 or 1.2%!
Replacement Rate = 2.1% - LEARN IT, KNOW IT, LIVE IT, LOVE IT!
Aside from artificial birth control, what are some factors which could reduce TFRs?
Late marriage, education of women, suffrage, women’s rights, political access/power, social access

35. Figuring Demographic Change
Births + In Migration
- Deaths + Out Migration
Total Population
*Births, Deaths, and Migrations act as variables
TP = OP + B – D + I – E
TP – Total Pop.
OP – Original Pop.
B – Births
D – Deaths
I – Immigration (In)
E – Emigration (Out)

36. THOMAS MALTHUS Who cares about a British economist from 1798?
Apparently, the APHG exam writers do…

37. 2011 AP® HUMAN GEOGRAPHY FREE-RESPONSE QUESTIONS
2. In 1798 Thomas Robert Malthus published An Essay on the Principle of Population in which he argued that population growth will inevitably outpace food production, resulting in widespread famine.
A. Identify and explain TWO reasons why some geographers today believe Malthus’ theory can be used to predict future population issues.
B. Identify and explain TWO reasons why some geographers today believe Malthus’ theory cannot be used to predict future population issues.
British economist
1798 essay
Geometric vs. Arithmetic Rates

38. Malthus continued
Pretend you are Thomas Malthus in What did he see as he looked out his London window in 1798?
LINEAR (arithmetic) GROWTH – agriculture increases in a uniform amount during equal time periods (money example)
EXPONENTIAL (geometric) GROWTH – population increases are compounded on top of one another
Population and Subsistence - Population would eventually overtake means to produce food
Why was Malthus wrong? He probably wasn’t until…
Green Revolution – Mechanization and Hybridization
Technology – Genetic engineering

39. Population Growth in “Boxes of Billions” by Hans
owth.html

40. POPULATION CALCULATIONS & CARRYOVER
DEMOGRAPHIC MOMENTUM
Global Numbers
RNI Population Increase/year
growth B people M increase
growth B people M increase
growth B people M increase
TFRs
s s
INDIA ……………….1.8 AFRICA ……………… S. AMERICA ………………..1.7
BRAZIL ………………..1.5
CHINA ………...……..1.7
IRAN ………..………2.5
KENYA ………………..5.0
What is the KEY NUMBER??!!!

41. Stage 5?????? Negative Pop. Growth: Sweden – pg. 36
Russia Italy TFR – 0.8% in Bologna, Italy
Germany
Spain
What about the United States?
Utah’s fertility
Emigration and Immigration are also factors in population growth/decline.

42. The arithmetic of doubling time and demographic momentum
The most important video you will ever see (according to YouTube)
– the mathematics of population, doubling time, percentages and growth

43. Demographic Momentum and Doubling Time
DOUBLING TIME – time required for a population to double in size –
RNI – Rate Nat. Increase
1% = 70 years
2% = 35 years
3% = 23 years
4% = 18 years
Factors of Growth – Steady Growth for 70 Years
Growth Rate/Year Factor
1% 2=2
2% 2x2 = 4
3% 2x2x2 = 8
4% 2x2x2x2 = 16
5% 2x2x2x2x2 = 32
6% 2x2x2x2x2x2 = 64
7% 2x2x2x2x2x2x2 = 128
So, is 4, 5, 6 or 7% a high growth rate? What did Dr. Bartlett say?
DEMOGRAPHIC MOMENTUM – so what is it?

44. Demographic Momentum Hans Rosling
Demographic Momentum – 5 min.

45. Global Population History and Dynamics
POPULATION EXPLOSION
TIME GLOBAL POP. DOUBLING TIME
2000 years ago 250 million NA
million years
billion years
billion years
billion 45years
Mid-1980s billion 39 years
2000s 6 billion 51 years
Examples:
Growth DT = 70/ RNI
10% years
2% years
1.8% years
0.7% years
Maps 66-67

46. OTHER INFO Approx. 90 M people added to the Earth each year
-Will this continue or stabilize?
How could it – either scenario?
Chart
British Influence on India
National population statistics may not reveal regional variations within individual countries

47. Limits on Population Growth
Disease
Famine (political, climate, food source disease)
Technology
Some researchers have indicated the world could support as many as 100 billion people
What and who would have to change for Earth to support such numbers?

48. POPULATION POLICY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tALpoXIkCKk
Other Population Terms
pronatal
antinatal
DEPENDENCY RATIO
15 and under
Over 65 (60)
What happens when there are few people in the middle of these two cohorts?
Sex or Gender Ratio
125:100
117:100
What are the ramifications of these numbers?
China and gender ratios video – 2 minutes
On your smartphones, look up some sex/gender ratios

49. ANTINATAL METHODS - CONTROLLING POPULATION
Contraceptive film
Pills
Condom (male and female)
IUD
Injections (e.g., Depo Provera)
Norplants
Diaphragm
Morning-after pill
Sponges
Patch
Tubal Ligation
Vasectomy
Abortion
State-sponsored population policies

50. CHINA See photo on page 65 of your text

51. By the late 1970s, China was facing starvation

52. CHINA’S DECISION-MAKING ON THE ONE CHILD POLICY
2 Billion Starvation- Fight for Food Children/Family
1.5 Billion Severe Hardship Children/Family
1.5 Billion Poverty Children/Family
1 Billion All Fed and Housed Children/Family
500 Million Doubled Living Standard Child/Family

53. Ways China reduced the number of births
BIRTH CONTROL – mainly via the “coil” or intrauterine device (IUD), abortions also widely used
Why would the Chinese rely primarily on IUDs to control population?
ONE-CHILD FAMILIES
LATE MARRIAGE
What benefits can the one-child family expect of this policy?
Lower taxes and money from government for each child
Education, child care, health care for the child for life
Many privileges other citizens did not receive
When are 2nd births acceptable?
Physical/Mental defect in child
Death of child
Death of spouse
Divorce
How might the One Child Policy change/alter the SOCIAL FABRIC of China?
“Little Emperors”

54. Why has having a son in China been so important. How has (or has it
Why has having a son in China been so important? How has (or has it?) this changed now?

55. INDIA
Photo – page 49
Son preference – Why is this so important in India?
Use of ultrasound technology
Female Infanticide

56. Implications of TFRs Role of culture in population increases
India – British

57. India http://faculty.lasierra.edu/~sswamina/

58. China’s and India’s populations
2 minutes

61. The world’s growth in about 3-4 minutes of video
Popuation Explosion
The world’s growth in about 3-4 minutes of video

62. CENSUS Counting of populations
Counting is statistical and approximate – not exact
Used for congressional seats and apportionments
Undercounting of disadvantaged populations
Data on population, growth rates, food availability, health conditions and incomes are often informed estimates – not actual counts