1. Driving Economic Growth
Melbourne Institute/The Australian
2015 Economic & Social Outlook Conference
“Rebuilding Foundations For Reform”
Grand Hyatt, Melbourne
5 November 2015
Driving Economic Growth
Phil Ruthven, Founder
WHERE KNOWLEDGE IS POWER 1

2. Topics Addressing the Impediments The New Age Industries and Jobs
The New and Lost Jobs

3. 1. Addressing The impediments

4. Our Federal Government: a to-do list? (Are they being addresses Yes/No)
1. Balanced budgets, the first rule of good government No
2. Tax reform that includes GST and shifts taxes to spending Yes/No
3. IR reform that understands work and workers in the New Age No
4. Innovation, IP and productivity; and how to get them. Yes/No
5. Fully embrace the digital era for international competitiveness No
6. Long range vision, especially our role in the Asia Pacific region Yes/No
7. Reduce subsidies going to yesterday’s industries that won’t survive Yes/No
8. Privatization of low-productivity government activities Yes/No
9. Rational energy policy that includes carbon, nuclear power No
10. Developing the top part of our continent (especially top ⅓) Yes/No

5. 2. Creating & Growing Industries

6. Australia’s Ages Of Economic Progress GDP @ Constant F2011 Prices 1788-2015 and onwards
Hunting
Age
Agrarian
Age
Industrial
Age
Infotronics
Age
Enlightenment
Age ?
Industrial
Age
Hunting,
trapping,
fishing,
crafts,
religion
Agriculture,
Mining,
Banking,
Commerce
An Industrial Age is when
Manufacturing and Construction
dominate the economy
(c %+ of GDP)
Quaternary
service
industries
Quinary
service industries
Imbedded
intelligence,
neural network
programs.
More electronic
“guardian angels”
and other new
technologies
GDP $ billion
Transport the
major utility
Power the major utility
(electricity) and telephony
IC&T
Year, ended June
IBISWorld 08/07/15

7. 1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2050
Changing Importance of Industry Divisions Shares of GDP by Industry Division,
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
Utilities
Construction
W’Sale Trade
Retail Trade
Transport, Postal
Media & Telecom
Finance & Insurance
Rental, Hiring. R Estate
Dwelling O’Ship
Prof & Tech Services
Admin Services
Public Admin/Safety
Ind taxes less subsidies
Education
Hospitality
Health & Social Assist
Arts & Recreation
Personal & Other Serv
Primary
Sector
Secondary
Tertiary
Quaternary
Quinary

8. New Utilities and Outsourcing Create Most Industries
We outsourced the growing of things to create the agriculture industry, aided by new technologies and utility (transport).
We outsourced the making and building of things to create the industrial age industries of manufacturing and construction, aided by new technologies and utility (electricity).
We are outsourcing services (household services and business functions) to create the current infotronics age from s, aided by new systems & technologies and a new utility (IC&T).
$1.5 trillion in extra revenue by F2016

9. New Age Industries 1965 – 2040s+ Household Outsourcing
Hospitality (meals, accommodation)
Entertainment (clubs, casinos)
Household services (everything!)
Personal services (beauty, fitness)
Health (everything!)
Tourism (transport, agencies)
Education (pre-school, tertiary) services)
Child minding (pre-school, nanny services)
Finances (advice, management)
Other services (inc. unmentionables)
Overseas Outsourcing (To Us)
Mining (energy minerals)
Tourism (inbound)
New era in agriculture?
Education (mainly tertiary)
Health
Aquaculture (& crustaceans)
Manufacturing (smelted ores)
IP (royalty arrangements)
Business Outsourcing
Trucking
Facilities management
Business services (A/C. legal, computing)
Knowledge services (data, consulting)
Cleaning.
Catering
HR services (recruitment, staffing).
Security
Call Centres/CRM services
Operations (via franchising)
New Enabling Utilities (& technologies)
ICT
Nanotechnology
Biotechnology
Just-in-time systems
Self-service systems
IBISWorld

10. The IC&T Utility Australia F2016 (F)
Manufacturing
Telecommunications 1.5%
Computer Eqpt %
Electronic Comp %
ISPs
4.0%
2.7%
Telco Eqpt
Wholesaling
Resellers 7.1%
Mobile Telecom 14.8%
(incl. satellite)
11.3 %
Computer Eqpt Wholesaling
18.2%
Wired telecom %
Comp./Software Retail
28.1%
8.1% Facilities Mgt.
Cloud computing 2.2%
4.1%
Computer Consulting
Hardware
Software
Systems Analysis
Systems Design
Revenue
$ 138 billion
IBISWorld 23/10/15

11. Household Outsourcing In The New Age1 F2016 (F)
Note: 1 Spending on services,
new since Includes
new government-provided
services with our taxes
Hair/beauty %
Maintenance/Cleaning %
Entertainment, Recreation
Gambling, Clubs
Child Care %
Other 2
2.5%
Entertainment
& Recreation
20.8%
Health Services 17.0%
10.0% Meals
Education 5.4%
21.6%
Financial Services
12.8% Tourism
Pre-school
University
Adult Educn.
Transport
Accommodation
Miscellaneous
Financial planning/advisory,
funds management,
new insurance product.
new banking services. etcetera
Legal
Services
1.0%
$410 billion $42,700 per Household ($818 per week)
Note: 2 Baby sitting, Foxtel,
Netflix, M/V hire, gardening
and many others
Source: IBISWorld 22/10/15

12. Business Outsourcing in the New Age F2016 (F)
Services to
Agriculture
0,8%
Services
to Mining
2.4%
Telecom
Services
2.8%
Other Services
1.0%
Franchising
26.8%
Transport
Services
12.6.%
12.0% Financial Services
Admin & Support Services
14.0.%
17.6%
Professional, Technical and Scientific Services to businesses
8.0%
Rental, Leasing & Property Services
Security
Services
1,0%
Personnei & staff hiring
Debt collection, cleaning,,
events promotion,
gardening etc
$ 650 billion expenditure
(13.5% of national revenue)
IBISWorld 23/010/15

13. Overseas Outsourcing Of Goods & Services F2015 (E)
Agriculture
1.8%
Other
Services
6.0%
Tourism %
Other Merchandise %
44.9% Minerals
Manufactures %
$268 billion
(Australia’s new age exports)
IBISWorld: 22/10/15

14. Australia’s International Tourism Inbound Numbers (‘000) to 2015
Revenue
2015 $ 41 billion
2030 $ billion (2015 prices)?
Potential
Inbound

15. 3. The New and Lost Jobs

16. Source: ABS 6203-D IBISWorld 14/10/15
Employment By Industry Sectors Australia September Share of Total Employment
Primary
Sector (4%)
Secondary
Sector (18%)
Quinary
Sector (26%)
Personal
& Other
Services
Cult. & Recn.
Services
Agriculture
Mining
Utilities
1.2%
2.0%
4.1%
2.6%
2.0%
Health &
Comm. Services
7.8% Manufacturing
8.8% Construction
Hospitality %
12.4%
3.3% Wholesaling
Education 7.9%
10.3% Retailing
Govt. Admin 6.3%
Adm & Support Serv
5.2% Transport
Professional
& Tech. Services
Finance & Ins.
3.5%
8.7%
3.3%
Tertiary
Sector(19%)
Quaternary
Sector (33%)
Media &
Communications
11.8 million employed
Source: ABS 6203-D IBISWorld 14/10/15

17. 4.8% Admin & Support Services
Australia’s New & Lost Jobs By Industry 5 years to September Share of total basis
The nation created
over 5 times more
new jobs than it lost
Personal/
Other Services
3.2%
Utilities
0.3%
Mining
5.0%
0.8% Finance &Insur
1.7% Rental/Real Estate
Finance & Ins 1.0%
Arts & Recreation 3.4%
Rental/Real Estate %
4.7% Construction
4.2% Retail
2.3% Transport/Postal
Media/Telcos %
Health
26.9%
W’Saling %
Agriculture
32.8%
19.2%
Prof. & Tech
Services
Utilities %
Housing
(investment)
Manufacturing
38.8%
Hospitality 8.1%
4.8% Admin & Support Services
Education 10.5%
4.9% Govt./Safety
Lost jobs 178,100
Net new jobs
755,100
New jobs 933,200
Sources: ABS. IBISWorld, 12/07/15

18. Sources: ABS. IBISWorld, 15/10/15
Australia’s New & Lost Jobs By Industry Year to September Share of total basis
>4 times more
jobs have been
created than lost
Personal & Other 0.7%
W’Saling
0.9%
Arts &
recrn
5.5%
2.6% Construction
3.5% Rental & Real Estate
1.9%
5.3% Transport
& Postal
Health
24.2%
Agriculture
23.1%
Prof. & Tech
Services
27.8%
Media/Telcos %
Mining
17.6%
Housing
(investment)
Hospitality 10.8%
Retailing 26.3%
Education 5.7%
6.8% Admin/Support
Pub. Admin 2.8%
2.4%
2.2%
1.2% Manufg.
2.2% Utilities
New jobs 362,500
Net new jobs
281,700
Lost jobs 80,800
Sources: ABS. IBISWorld, 15/10/15

19. To download this presentation go to: www.ibisworld.com.au
ruthven
outlook
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