1. Bratislava International School of Liberal Arts
UK Election 2017 EU at the Crossroads: How will 2017 National Elections Change the Face of Europe Institute of European Democrats Conference, Bratislava, 5 May 2017
Karen Henderson
Bratislava International School of Liberal Arts

2. Summary
Two reasons why Brexit not relevant to populist politics in EU as a whole
2017 General Election:
Why is it happening?
Who will win?
What does this mean for Brexit?
One reason why Brexit and UK are relevant to study of populism in EU

3. Brexit is a one off event
Stronger than most EU states, plus different political culture
Brexit was a horrible mistake, and happened in only EU member state without a written constitution

4. The Hitchcock twist (Tusk)
Unethical to call election 3 weeks AFTER triggering Article 50?
Exploits window between ‘no going back’ …
…and real onset of economic problems

5. Reasons for election May has no popular mandate… …but is very popular
Parliamentary majority small (between 8 and 17) and Labour opposition exceptionally weak
‘The country is coming together but parliament is not’…
…but real problem still Conservative Party disunity - May isolated between SEM faction (business) and hard Brexiteer faction
Avoid May 2020 election – Brexit spring 2019, could be delayed, economy?

6. Party stances on Brexit
Conservative Party: whatever May decides
Labour Party: soft Brexit, protect EU citizens unilaterally
SNP: no Brexit, independence instead
Liberal Democrats: second referendum, no Brexit or soft Brexit
Greens: no Brexit, second referendum
UKIP: Brexit, Brexit, defenders of Brexit!

7. UK voting system
Percentage of votes and percentage of seats do not correspond
‘Ashcroft seats’ matter, so…
…where will the UKIP vote go…
…and where will the LibDem vote come from
If result not clear by CET, probably not clear for 24 hours or longer

8. UK voting system: % vote vs. % seat
Election year
Winning party
% vote
% seat
2015
Conservatives
36.9
50.9
2010
Conservatives – had to form coalition
36.1
47.2
2005
Labour
35.2
55.0
2001
40.7
62.5
1997
43.2
63.4
1992
41.9
51.6
1987
42.2
57.7
1983
42.4
61.1
1979
43.9
53.4
1974 Oct
39.3
50.2
1974 Feb
Labour minority government
37.2
47.4

9. UK 2015 Election Result Party % vote No. seats 2010
For/vs. Brexit (est)
Conservative
36.9
331
307
135/186
Labour
30.4
232
258
10/218
SNP (Scotland)
4.7 56 8
0/56
Liberal Democrat
7.9 57
0/8
DUP (N. Ireland)
0.6 6
8/0
Sinn Fein (N. Ireland) 4 5
0/4
Plain Cymru (Wales) 3
UKIP
12.6 1
1/0
SDLP (N. Ireland)
0.3
0/3
Greens
3.8
0/1
UUP (N. Ireland)
0.4 2
0/2
Other

10. Unlikely scenario May does not increase her majority
Brexit no longer probable
9/1 against Conservatives getting less than 40% of the vote
BUT this election will have a lot of tactical voting

11. Likely scenario May increases majority to at least 100 6/4 odds 45-50%
Labour becomes a stronger opposition as election disaster ousts Corbyn

12. Polls http://britainelects.com/ (majority 118)

13. Implications for Brexit negotiations
May will be easier for EU to negotiate with
Will not waver due to pressure on economist or Brexiteer side
More likely to compromise than hard Brexiteers
But does EU side really want to negotiate…?
The 27 do not regard leaving the EU as a legitimate choice

14. And what does Brexit tell us about populism in the EU?
Forget the small extremist parties, look at the governing parties
Do not take the battle on to the extremists’ turf
Solve some of the problems that worry their supporters? Nationalism can be a symptom and not a cause