1. NATIONAL REPORT IRELAND Dr. Stephen Quinlan
Standard Eurobarometer 86   PUBLIC OPINION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION AUTUMN 2016
NATIONAL REPORT
IRELAND
Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen, I’m Stephen Quinlan from GESIS in Mannheim Germany and I have authored this report on behalf of the European Commission Representation in Ireland using data from Eurobarometer 86.
Before getting into the summary of the report, I want to thank Ruth Deasy and her staff for facilitating the talk this morning and for offering some feedback. We’ve been working together for a number of years now and it’s been avery good working relationship and I want to offer thanks for that.
Dr. Stephen Quinlan
GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, Mannheim
27 February 2017
Representation of the European Commission in Ireland
Standard Eurobarometer 86 – Autumn 2016 – TNS opinion & social

2. 2016: a seminal year I 2016 was a seminal year:
We had Trump’s election in the United States
We had the populist wave across many countries – Austria being the example with Norbert Hoffer of Freedom Party
We had the Apple Ruling from the European Commission on Ireland’s relationship with multinational Apple
We have seen the European Migrant Crisis rumble on
We have seen a new government here in Ireland take office, a minority government, supprted by many non-party candidates, and the lowest share of the vote for the traditional parties ever.

3. 2016: a seminal year II
And of course perhaps the most seminal moment of the year of 2016 of all was Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.
So Eurobarometer comes at a pivotal time and focuses on two themes:
Attitudes to the EU in Ireland
Attitudes among Irish people to various global events.

4. National report – Ireland
Eurobarometer 86
Since 1973, part of bi-annual exploration of attitudes to the EU and political/social matters.
Survey conducted across 28 member states.
IRELAND
Study conducted by Behaviour and Attitudes.
Face-to-face interviews.
Multi-stage random probability sample.
Fieldwork: 5-14 November 2016.
1,006 respondents interviewed aged (MoE +/- 3pts).
But before we go into the results, a little bit about Eurobarometer and the specific study on which the data is based, Eurobarometer 86.
National report – Ireland

5. National report – Ireland
1: Attitudes to the EU
So Irish attitudes to the EU have been traditionally positive. But we did not note a dampening of this enthusiasm during the Global Financial Crisis. However, over the past couple of years, especially since the end of the EU/IMF bailout, there has been increasing enthusiasm. The question is where are we now?
There are multiple ways of exploring enthusiasm to the EU. The report looks at three, namely trust in the EU, attitudes towards EU policies, and people’s image of the EU.
National report – Ireland

6. National report – Ireland
Trust in the EU (%)
So to trust first – a barometer of citizen’s confidence in an institution. Higher levels of trust are thought to provide institutions with legitimacy.
So this graph shows trust levels going back to As of November 2016, more people trust the EU than distrust it – 49 versus 42. Distrust has been declining since the end of the bailout and correspondingly there has been an increase in trust. Trust in November 2011 was 24 per cent – now 49.
Still a large proportion are distrustful. Distrust can represent two things: judicious approach versus general malaise.
Source of data: EB62-EB86.
See Figure 1 in report.
National report – Ireland

7. National report – Ireland
Proportion of Irish and EU citizens “for” certain policies and priorities of the European Union
EU policy/priority IE
EU28
The free movement of EU citizens who can live, work, study and do business anywhere in the EU
90%
81%
A European economic and monetary union with one single currency, the euro
85%
70%
A free trade and investment agreement between the EU and the USA
75%
53%
Further enlargement of the EU to include other countries in future years
44%
39%
A second way of looking at EU enthusiasm is the support Irish people profess to have for certain EU policies or priorities. We examine four in particular and contrast this with the EU average position.
Irish people are strongly in favour of freedom of movement – interesting that this was a particular problem in the UK during their Brexit referendum.
Very strong support for EMU – 85% - has been rising once again in recent years having dipped as low as 68% in the midst of the GFC.
Free Trade Agreement – strong support in Ireland and much more so than EU. Caveat to this – a) question not great and b) Irish people’s understanding of this is unclear.
Public split on enlargement – 44 for, 45 against. Like EU. A pattern that has existed for some time in Ireland.
Broad support for EU policies.
Source of data: EB86.
See Table 1 in report.
National report – Ireland

8. National report – Ireland
Image of the the EU (%)
The third means of looking how people feel towards the EU is to see what image they have of it. And here we are able to look back over time.
As of November 2016, 55% have a positive image of the EU, 20pts above the EU average, meaning Irish people have the most positive image of the EU across all member states. Only 13% have a negative image, down from a high of 31% in autumn Gains in image over past two years have been consolidated.
Sizeable neutral proportion – 31% as of Nov 2016 – pre GFC this average 19%.As we can see we have not yet gone back to the halcyon days pre GFC.
Source of data: EB53-EB86.
See Figure 2 in report.
National report – Ireland

9. Understanding image of the EU in Ireland
Multivariate analysis.
N=846.
Dependent variable: Positive versus non-positive image of EU
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
Tend to distrust the European Union
***
(0.1702)
Evaluations of the Irish economy
0.5429***
(0.1332)
Finished education at age (ref: 15<)
Aged 16-19 **
(0.2576)
Aged 20 +
1.0158***
(0.2850)
Still studying
0.7776
(0.4840)
Class (ref: Upper/middle class)
Working class
(0.1919)
Lower middle class *
(0.2578)
Age (ref: age 60+)
15-29
(0.3424)
30-44
0.0868
(0.2354)
45-59
(0.2265)
Political knowledge
0.2807**
(0.0920)
Female
0.2321
(0.1678)
Constant **
(0.5183)
What determines Irish people’s perceptions of the EU? And for this we turn to multivariate regression analysis. Here is the model and we look at the impact of a number of things…
I am not going to dwell on this – what we want to know is what this all means in practice. And the three variables highlighted in green here form the part of an interesting story.
Source of data: EB86.
See Appendix.
National report – Ireland

10. National report – Ireland
Average predicted effect of having a positive image of EU in Ireland depending on age you finished education
Average predicted effects based on logit model – see Appendix.
First of all there is a clear education difference – people who are more educated are more likely to have a positive image of the EU – to the tune of 18pts.
Source of data: EB86.
See Figure 3 in report.
National report – Ireland

11. National report – Ireland
Average predicted effect of having a positive image of EU in Ireland depending on perception of how Irish economy is performing
Average predicted effects based on logit model – see Appendix.
Attitudes to the economy also matter: the more positive somebody is about the Irish economy, the more likely they are to have a positive image of the EU. 30pt difference – so builds on the distinction we have observed in previous Eurobarometers – improvement in economy has contributed to improving gains in enthusiasm for the EU.
Source of data: EB86.
See Figure 4 in report.
National report – Ireland

12. National report – Ireland
Average predicted effect of having a positive image of EU in Ireland depending on depending on trust in the European Union
Average predicted effects based on logit model – see Appendix.
Having trust in the EU is also key to determining whether you have a positive image of it. Among people who have trust in the EU, there is a 76% chance they will have a positive image of it compared with a 35% chance among those who do trust it – a whopping 41pt difference.
In sum, attitudes to the EU are influenced by a number of variables. Economics matter but there are clear gaps depending on education and trust – these need to be focused on.
Source of data: EB86.
See Figure 5 in report.
National report – Ireland

13. National report – Ireland
Index of support for the statement “(OUR COUNTRY) could better face the future outside the EU” by member state – autumn 2016 (%)
25% ‘Agree’
67% ‘Disagree’
Brexit has raised fundamental questions about Ireland’s relationship with the EU going forward. Some have begun to question whether there should be consideration of an ‘Irexit’.
While Eurobarometer does not contain any specific questions on Brexit, we can look at how people feel to the question ‘Our country could better face the future outside the EU’. We calculate an index on the following basis – Agree minus disagree responses.
Most EU citizens do not see their country’s future outside the EU as indicated by the negative scores.
Ireland – a -42 score, well above the -26 EU average. No sign of mushrooming Euroscepticism in Ireland in light of Brexit.
Source of data: EB86.
See Figure 6 in report.
National report – Ireland

14. 2: Attitudes to global developments
We now turn our heads to Irish attitudes to global developments. We look at three developments, namely:
Immigration in light of the European migrant crisis
The direction of the US in light of Trump’s rise and
Economic expectations in light of Brexit.
National report – Ireland

15. National report – Ireland
Agreement with the proposition that “immigrants contribute a lot to (OUR COUNTRY)" by member state – autumn 2016 (%)
Looking first at attitudes towards immigration, Irish people are favourable towards the idea of immigration from both within the EU and outside of the EU.
81% have a positive view of immigration from within the EU while 57% have a positive image of immigration from outside the Union, well above the EU averages of both metrics and ranking Ireland among the most positive towards immigration in the EU.
Another way of looking at people’s feelings towards immigration is how they feel about immigrants contribution to the country. Again, Irish people are very positive here, ranking second highest behind Sweden.
Why? Is it the Irish emigrant tradition? Or is it something to do that Ireland has not been at the forefront of the immigration crisis.
Source of data: EB86.
See Figure 7 in report.
National report – Ireland

16. Irish attitudes to the direction of the United States 2009-2016 (%)
We next turn our attention to Irish people’s feelings about the United States. Eurobarometer asks whether the US is going in the right direction or the wrong direction.
As of November 2016, 61% say America is going in the wrong direction, with only 16% saying it is going in the right direction.
Big sea change in Irish opinion over time. Clear evidence of a Europe wide feeling of unease about the US and where it is going under a President Trump.
Source of data: EB86.
See Figure 8 in report.
National report – Ireland

17. National report – Ireland
Economic expectations for the next twelve months in Ireland & the EU: (%)
No specific questions on Brexit.
64% think the economy is doing ‘good’ right now.
45% believe it will ‘remain the same’ while only 13% believe the economy will ‘worsen’
Little sign of pessimistic view of economy in light of Brexit.
Source of data: EB77-EB86.
See Figure 9 in report.
National report – Ireland

18. National report – Ireland
Takeaways
Support for the EU remains steady:
Most people have a positive image of EU (55%).
Strong support for EU policies.
However, significant proportion are distrustful of EU. Certain groups of citizens are less likely to have positive image of EU (Less educated, distrustful).
Concern over direction of the US Europe-wide.
Most Irish people positive about immigration & believe immigrants make positive contribution.
Brexit:
No mushrooming Euroscepticism.
No great decline in economic confidence.
No specific questions on Brexit.
64% think the economy is doing ‘good’ right now.
45% believe it will ‘remain the same’ while only 13% believe the economy will ‘worsen’
Little sign of pessimistic view of economy in light of Brexit.
National report – Ireland

19. NATIONAL REPORT IRELAND Dr. Stephen Quinlan
Standard Eurobarometer 86   PUBLIC OPINION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION AUTUMN 2016
NATIONAL REPORT
IRELAND
Ok I think we’ll leave it there. Thanks for your attention and I am happy to take any questions you may have.
Dr. Stephen Quinlan
GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, Mannheim
27 February 2017
Representation of the European Commission in Ireland
Standard Eurobarometer 86 – Autumn 2016 – TNS opinion & social