2. Patterns and Trends in UK higher education
AARON PORTER
Director of Insights
@AaronPorter @HotcoursesGroup

3. Policy Environment - Headlines
Higher education is barely out of the news. But most of it isn’t great: Vice Chancellor pay, is university worth it, student and graduate debt.
Increased focus on tuition fees (Corybn pledge to scrap, May to freeze at £9250 & increase in repayment threshold to £25k)
Introduction of the Teaching Excellence Framework. Sector are still lukewarm, still waiting to see if it will impact on student demand. The early intelligence from Hotcourses is no shift from domestic students (as per UCAS summer data), but some shifts in international behaviour.
Global events are having an impact on pattern of international student distribution (notably Trump, Brexit and Trudeau).

4. http://www. universitiesuk. ac

19. Prospective student trends & insight

23. TEF, Brexit, Trump & Tredeau

24. TEF – early signs

25. Searches from UK and India for TEF ranked institutions (% change)
TEF impact – who cares?
Searches from UK and India for TEF ranked institutions (% change)
July – Oct 2016 vs July – Oct 2017 UK
India UK
India UK
India
Very little impact on UK students. Lots of ways we can slice and dice the data of course.

26. UCAS EU applications dropped by 5%
Brexit impact - EU demand
One year on from the EU Referendum, how can we quantify the impact of the leave vote?
UK lost 6.5% European market share.
US lost 4%
Aus lost 1.4%
Canada up 1.4%
Ireland up 1.1%  
Other up 8.9% almost 9%
UCAS EU applications dropped by 5%

27. EU funding, offsets UK decline
Impact of UK gov EU funding announcement on study European student searches.
Real-time data shows positive policy helping UK offset decline in EU demand
UK has a spike of 2.3%. Weak £. Getting in while we’re still part of EU. US 0.6%. Don’t want to pay intl fees

28. Trump effect on Middle East
How has the US Presidential vote impacted Middle Eastern study choices?
IDP seeing record numbers of IELTS tests for Canada

29. Trump’s travel ban - Iran
How did Trump’s travel ban impact Iranian study choices?
Executive Order 13769
These things change fast, their perceptions change fast, you need to react quickly

30. India – the Canada story
Canada success story is prominent in Indian searches. The UK also fares well.
Interesting shifts in India towards Canada and the UK. U of Toronto reported a 57% jump in applications from students from India, BBC News. A lot of North India interest has gone to Canada for historical reasons (prev generation migration)

31. India – the Canada story
Canada has jumped from 5th most popular to the most popular study destination.
Demand from India for destinations (market share)
12 months prior to and after 1 Nov 2017
Rank
1 Nov Oct 2016
1 Nov Oct 2017 1
USA
27.8%
Canada
23.0% 2
Australia
17.7%
19.8% 3 UK
13.2%
15.6% 4
Singapore
10.9%
13.5% 5
10.3%
8.1% 6
New Zealand
9.1%
7.8% 7
Malaysia
5.0%
3.3% 8
Ireland
2.0%
2.7% 9
Netherlands
1.4%
1.7% 10
Other
2.6%
4.5%

32. India – regional diversification
Regional shifts in India are occurring. Delhi in particular has seen big drops.
Our Insights partners are using this to target Tier 2 and 3 cities

33. Any questions?