1. The 10-Year Remote Sensing Industry Forecast
Presented at ASPRS/MAPPS Conference
October, 2001
Ron Rabin, Lockheed Martin, Stennis Space Center
(Support to Earth Science Applications Division)

2. Topics Review Phase I - Industry Baseline
Background
Results
Phase II - User Needs/Requirements
Status
Interview Results
Preliminary Survey Results
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3. Background
In August 1999, ASPRS and NASA's Earth Science Applications Division (ESAD) (nee CRSP) Commercial Remote Sensing Program (CRSP) entered into a 5-year Space Act Agreement (SAA), combining resources and expertise to:
Baseline the Remote Sensing Industry (RSI)
Develop a 10-Year RSI market forecast
Provide improved information for decision makers
Develop attendant processes
Leave behind capability for ASPRS
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4. Forecast Plan
Phase I Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000)
Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users and Determination of Their Needs/Requirements (Jan 2002)
Phase III Validate I and II (Dec 2003) Technology Assessment
Phase IV Market Forecast (Dec 2004)
Project Plan
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5. Remote Sensing Industry Definition
Platforms & Sensors
Data
Collection
Phase I
Data Processing
Support
Elements
Industry
Intermediaries
Hardware
Software
Etc.
Business Segments
VARs
Consultants
Etc.
End-User
Phase II
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6. Forecast Framework Customer Segments Business Segments Market Segments
Data Collection
Data Processing
Support
Elements
Intermediaries
Environmental
Global Security
National/
Transportation
Agriculture
Civil Gov’t
Exploration/
Resources
Forestry
Insurance
Mapping
Real Estate
Telecomms
Utilities
Entertainment/
Media
Commercial
Government
Customer
Segments
Academia
Business Segments
Market Segments
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7. Forecast Participants
NASA
NOAA
USGS
Space Imaging
Kodak
SPOT
EarthData
PAR
Autometrics
Spencer-Gross
American Forests
RAND
Pictometry
Leading Edge
Lockheed Martin
Geomatics
Eaglescan
Landcare Avn.
University of Arizona
University of Utah
University of Missouri
RIT
ASPRS
NSGIC
MAPPS
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8. Forecast Process $ Focus Group Survey Interview Literature Search
Findings
Conclusions $
Time
Forecast $
20%
21%
17%
Focus
Group
Survey
Interview
Literature
Search
ANALYSIS
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9. Data Collection to Date
Phase I
Interviews: (Commercial)
Surveys: (Commercial - 227, Government - 149, Academia - 62)
“Closed Envelope”: (Commercial, Senior level)
Phase II
Interviews (Managers, Users, SLT Government)
Focus Groups (NSGIC, Local GIS, ASPRS/MAPPS, URISA, Western Foresters)
Surveys > 530+ and counting
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10. Respondent Profile
* Respondents could answer more than once.
Respondents are predominantly middle/upper management level with a representative mix of technical and non-technical
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11. Estimated CRSI Sales 1998 to 2010
The major objective of Phase I of the Market Forecast was to Baseline the Remote Sensing Industry Market. One important dimension of this baseline is Annual Sales.
There are, of course, many Remote Sensing Industry sales estimates available. We opted to collect our own data and based on the Team’s collective experience do our own analysis. However, we did use other estimates found in our Literature Search as a “sanity check”.
By survey, we asked the sample group to estimate the sales of their companies in the two years past (1998, 1999), the current year (2000), the next year (2001) and two out-years (2005 and 2010). This translated into a solid base of two years of recent history; a current year that was about one-half over at the time of the survey and,therefore, also fairly solid; and, finally, a near-term (5-year) and a far-term (10-year) estimate.
The results are shown in this chart. Our “sanity check” (including a separate closed envelope survey of Industry Presidents and CEOs) revealed that these estimates compared favorably with those made by other market experts.
We used these results to complete our next task of developing a 10-year Industry Forecast.
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12. Estimated CRSI Sales 1998 to 2010
Forecast Baseline
Based on calculating the average annual growth rate from (respondent estimates) and applying that rate to the out-years
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13. Market Segment as % of Sales CY 2000
National/Global Security
41%
Mapping
17%
Civil Government
15%
Transportation 9%
Environmental 4%
Utilities 4%
Agriculture 2%
Exploration/Resources 2%
Forestry 2%
Telecommunications 2%
Entertainment/Media
<1%
Insurance
<1%
Real Estate
<1%
Other
<1%
% of Sales
Slide 23
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14. Commercial Company Size
While we don’t know how many Respondents were from the same Company, we do know that ...
This is a fragmented Industry
Smaller Companies are in the Majority
About 20% of Respondents estimated at 10 or less employees
About 55% of Respondents estimated at under 100 employees
(% < 50 ?)
Over 80% of Respondents estimated at under 500 employees
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15. Most Important Mission by Level of Government
Federal level generally has across the board interest
States appear to be focused more on Natural Resource Management and Utilities
Only the Federal Government sees Technology Development as an Important Mission
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16. Most Active RS Markets/Applications/Activities
This table depicts what the data reveals to be the most important Remote Sensing Markets/Applications/Activities within the major Market Sectors (Commercial, Academic, Government) and provides,through analysis, insight into what aspects seem to be important across the Sectors.
Each of the three Sectors investigated has its own culture and language. In order to summarize results across Sectors, this chart assumes that Sector-specific terms describe/identify concepts or ideas that are closely related to similar concepts or ideas in other Sector cultures, but which are described/identified by other terms. We have termed these cross-Sector concepts or ideas “generic similarities”.
The Columns of the chart list the most active Market Segments, Mission Areas, Degrees granted, etc. by Market Sector. For example:
“Mapping” is one of the group of “Market Segments” investigated in the Commercial Sector. It was, as can be seen in columns 1, 5 and 6 of the chart, considered an important factor in various aspects of the Market Segments of the Commercial Sector.
“Mapping” is also seen as the most important Mission (column 2), by Federal Government respondents.
“Geography” is at the top of the list in degrees granted in the Academic Sector (column 3) and most difficult skills to hire in the Commercial Sector (column 4).
Based on the “generic similarity” assumption made above, “Mapping” and “Geography” are similar enough in concept and idea to make a cross-Sector comparison.. Therefore, we are able to place them in the same row. As can be seen, this creates a cross-Sector row indicating that “Mapping” and “Geography” -similar concepts and idea - are of key importance across all the Sectors in the Remote Sensing Industry.
Similarly, Row 2 indicates that another cross-Sector activity of high importance to the industry is the Environment and the generically similar Natural Resource Management.
Other rows (3-9), while not showing concepts or ideas of across-the-board importance, do show clusters of varying sizes of important Remote Sensing Markets/Applications/Activities within the major Market Sectors.
Blank areas occur when there are no generically similar activities in any particular column.
It should be noted that the columns were set up to facilitate comparisons across the columns and, therefore the list in the Columns are not rank ordered.
(Generically grouped)(NOT rank ordered)
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17. Forecast Plan
Phase I Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000)
Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users and Determination of Their Needs/Requirements (Jan 2002)
Phase III Validate I and II (Dec 2003) Technology Assessment
Phase IV Market Forecast (Dec 2004)
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18. Topics Review Phase I - Industry Baseline
Background
Results
Phase II - User Needs/Requirements
Status
Interview Results
Preliminary Survey Results
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19. Phase II Collection and Analysis Objectives
1. Identify and Characterize the MANAGER and END-USER
Academic
Commercial
Government
2. Identify and Baseline the MANAGER and END-USER Job NEEDS
3. Determine Needs-driven APPLICATIONS REQUIREMENTS as Derived from Needs Baseline
4. Determine If Current APPLICATIONS Provide Cost Effective Solutions to NEEDS and REQUIREMENTS
5. Assess Current, Emergent and Future Technology Capabilities to Meet NEEDS, REQUIREMENTS
Data COLLECTION
(Survey, Interview, Focus Group, Lit. Search)
Analysis
During Phase I of our process, we established a solid Commercial Remote Sensing Industry baseline. During that Phase we looked closely at Market Sectors, Market Segments and Business Segments. The focus for Phase II is the Line Manager and End-User. For this Phase we set the following objectives:
1. Identify and profile the Managers (Purchasers) and End-Users who use/need remote sensing data, information and software products to do their job;
2. Identify and baseline the on-the-job needs (in non-technical terms) of these same Managers and End-Users;
3. Determine needs-driven applications requirements as they derive from the managers and end-user needs baseline;
4. Determine if current applications provide cost effective solutions to needs-driven applications requirements
5. Assess current, emergent and future technology capabilities to meet needs-driven applications requirements
The Team determined that the most efficient way to meet these objectives would be to collect and analyze data to meet goals 1 and 2 and then, through analysis, use that data to meet goals 3-5.
This led to the development of a coordinated and integrated data collection plan using a Survey, Interviews, Focus Group and Literature Search techniques. Data collection and analysis is ongoing at this time
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20. Comparison of Market Segment vs. Applications/Areas of Focus
Most
Least
Are the areas of least focus those of biggest opportunity?
In General, The Applications/Areas of Focus most frequently selected by Interviewees parallel the most Active Market Segments in our Phase I Survey
The major exceptions (Utilities, Agriculture and National /Security) are probably due to a shift in interest toward toward State and Local government interests and civil applications.
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21. Use of Imagery Types and Format
Imagery collected from Aerial Platforms is used 65% of the time.
Mutispectral imagery collected from space is the most used type of imagery collected by space platforms and second only to panchromatic imagery collected by aerial platforms.
Digital Format is used 70% of the time; film is used 30%. (Preference? Trend? Cost? Ease of Use?)
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22. Spatial Resolution Use
About 40% use > 1 meter resolution
Nearly 60%use 2 meters or less
The Government sample (NACo and The Association of State Floodplain Mappers) considers higher Spatial Resolution (at least 1 meter) important.
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23. Importance of RS Data/Information Characteristics
Users of data/information collected from both Aerial and Space Platforms agree that Spatial Resolution and Geolocation Accuracy are the most important characteristics
Cost is an important characteristic but not most important to this interview sample. … HOWEVER, survey sample indicates that cost is a major driver for Manager-Users who purchase the data/information
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24. The County* GIS/RS “Environment”
NACo Interviewees were predominantly elected officials (who control budgets) generally unfamiliar with GIS, although most of the knew it was related to mapping
1998 NACo GIS committee established to educate the NACo membership
Current users of GIS are strong advocates
Generally, county governments are just starting to build GIS databases
County capabilities vary from computerless to hi-tech
Usually combine aerial photography with existing GIS
At the county level, the GIS Coordinator where the GIS knowledge lies.
Resides in various departments, e.g., Planning, Information Technology, County Assessors, County Surveyors, etc.
* Per 51 NAC0 Interviews
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25. Conclusions
The CRSI market is growing at about 13% per year (Effects of 9/11/01???)
About $2B in 2001, growing to about $6B in 2010 (Constant CY 2000 $)
Aerial and Satellite markets do not seem to be in competition
The CRSI is fragmented and populated with lots of small companies
Does not necessarily mean low entry barriers.
Imagery collected from Aerial Platforms is used 2 times more frequently than imagery collected from Space Platforms
High Resolution, Geo-location Accuracy and Cost are market drivers
Digital is the preferred format
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26. Conclusions Companies operate in more than one business segment
Government agencies are the largest potential Customer group(about 67% of revenues thru 2006 per F/S)
Federal and SLT interests are not the same
Decisions re: the use of remote sensing products are made by elected officials
The problem lies in funding, education, training, and awareness, not in available technology.
Currently, Across All Sectors, the most Active Markets/Apps/Activities/ Market Segments are:
Mapping/Geography
Environment
Civil Government
National/Global Security
Transportation
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27. Topics Review Phase I - Industry Baseline
Background
Results
Phase II - User Needs/Requirements
Status
Interview Results
Preliminary Survey Results
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28. Phase II Forecast Framework
Requirements Areas
Sectors
Community Growth &
Infrastructure
Business Demographics
Government
Private
Environmental Assessment
Application Areas
Academia
Disaster Management
Resource Management
Exploration/
Resources
Forestry
Utilities
Insurance
Agriculture
Civil Gov’t
Entertainment/
Media
Real Estate
Telecomms
Environmental
Security/Defense
National/Global
Transportation
National/Global Security & Defense
General Mapping*
Business Demographics
* Includes: Engineering, GIS, Land Surveying
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29. Preliminary User Survey Data
25 October 2001
Lots of Analyses yet to do
Commercial v. Government v. Academia
User v. Manager
Use v. Need
etc., etc.
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30. Job Description of Respondents
DRAFT
Number of Responses
Sector
Users (End Users & Manager/Users) are in the majority
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31. Government Sub-Sector of Employment
DRAFT
Number of Responses
SLT
Sub-Sector
About 60% of the Government respondents are at SLT level
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32. Average Amount of time spent on Research
DRAFT
Average Weighted Percentage
Sector
Government and Academic sectors spend most the time on R&D (Invest most?)
During Phase I we found that the commercial sector does not invest heavily in R&D.
Function of company size.
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33. DRAFT Educational Levels A well educated sample Number of Responses
Level of Education
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34. DRAFT Degrees by Discipline
Responses
Disciplines
60% have had course work related to remote sensing
Similar to Phase I Academic data re; Geography & GIS, Geology and Environment topping list
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35. Employer-Sponsored Remote Sensing Training
Responses
DRAFT
Frequency
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36. DRAFT Use of Remote Sensing Data / Information / Software
Which dominates?
Which is (are) most cross-cutting
Commercial, Government, Academic
DRAFT
Percentage of Total Responses
539 Respondents
1108 Responses
The majority of Respondents use at least two categories
Data and Information are used more than Software
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37. Application Area Needs
DRAFT
Number of Responses
Application Areas
It appears that user needs are not being very well met across all market segments. (Opportunities in application upgrades?)
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38. DRAFT Elevation Accuracy Number of Responses
Level of Elevation Accuracy
There is probably a need for some better elevation accuracy at the “finer” levels.
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39. Elevation Accuracy: Government (Commercial and Academic to go.)
There appears to be a decided need for increased elevation accuracy in the Government Sector (Fed v. SLT)
DRAFT
Number of Responses
Level of Elevation Accuracy
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40. DRAFT Spatial Resolution
Number of Responses
Level of Spatial Resolution
Pending further analysis, it appears that there is a need for higher spatial resolution (3 feet or less).
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41. Geo-location Accuracy
DRAFT
Number of Responses
Level of Geo-location Accuracy
Pending further analysis, it appears that there is a need for better geo-location accuracy (18” and less)
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42. DRAFT Preferences for Timeliness Timeliness seems to be needs driven.
1-3 Weeks =20%-25%
> 1 Week = ~40%
~20%
Number of Respondents
DRAFT
Timeframe
Timeliness seems to be needs driven.
Not all users need/prefer to have data sooner .
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43. DRAFT Use of Imagery Number of Responses Image Types
Expectation of Technology Breakthrough?
Number of Responses
Image Types
Largest increases in use:
Hyperspectral
LIDAR
Digital Color
Digital B/W
Color IR Film
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44. Survey Conclusions We have lots of work to do
What we have looked at is generally consistent with Interviews and Phase I results
When completed, Phase II will accomplish its Objectives.
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45. Phase II Collection and Analysis Objectives
1. Identify and Characterize the MANAGER and END-USER
Academic
Commercial
Government
2. Identify and Baseline the MANAGER and END-USER Job NEEDS
3. Determine Needs-driven APPLICATIONS REQUIREMENTS as Derived from Needs Baseline
4. Determine If Current APPLICATIONS Provide Cost Effective Solutions to NEEDS and REQUIREMENTS
5. Assess Current, Emergent and Future Technology Capabilities to Meet NEEDS, REQUIREMENTS
Data COLLECTION
(Survey, Interview, Focus Group, Lit. Search)
Analysis
During Phase I of our process, we established a solid Commercial Remote Sensing Industry baseline. During that Phase we looked closely at Market Sectors, Market Segments and Business Segments. The focus for Phase II is the Line Manager and End-User. For this Phase we set the following objectives:
1. Identify and profile the Managers (Purchasers) and End-Users who use/need remote sensing data, information and software products to do their job;
2. Identify and baseline the on-the-job needs (in non-technical terms) of these same Managers and End-Users;
3. Determine needs-driven applications requirements as they derive from the managers and end-user needs baseline;
4. Determine if current applications provide cost effective solutions to needs-driven applications requirements
5. Assess current, emergent and future technology capabilities to meet needs-driven applications requirements
The Team determined that the most efficient way to meet these objectives would be to collect and analyze data to meet goals 1 and 2 and then, through analysis, use that data to meet goals 3-5.
This led to the development of a coordinated and integrated data collection plan using a Survey, Interviews, Focus Group and Literature Search techniques. Data collection and analysis is ongoing at this time
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46. Back-Up
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47. Phase I Survey Sample Size
* = Excluded Students & Retired
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48. Use of Imagery Types and Format
Imagery collected from Aerial Platforms is used 65% of the time. This preference is also reflected in the NACo sample.
Mutispectral imagery collected from space is the most used type of imagery collected by space platforms and second only to panchromatic imagery collected by aerial platforms.
Digital Format is used 70% of the time; film is used 30%. (Preference? Trend? Cost? Ease of Use?)
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49. Proportional Use of Remote Sensing Data / Information / Software is about the same in each sector.
DRAFT
Number of Responses
Sector
Proportional Use of Remote Sensing Data / Information / Software is about the same in each sector.
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