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Ocean Circulation Changes
Heartland NY 3-09 Climate Change is Primarily Driven by Salinity Induced Deep Ocean Circulation Changes by Bill Gray
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“TOO MUCH RADIATION – NOT ENOUGH OCEAN”
THEME OF TALK “TOO MUCH RADIATION – NOT ENOUGH OCEAN” “TOO MUCH RADIATION – NOT ENOUGH OCEAN”
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Better to be RIGHT in HELL
CARDINAL PRINCIPLE Better to be RIGHT in HELL than WRONG in HEAVEN
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TALK SUMMARY Why GCMs give way-too-much global warming (none of them should be taken seriously) Deep ocean circulation changes are the primary driver of climate change
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POLITICS A great AGW hoax is being played on the people of the world.
Global environmental problems are a result of population growth, industrialization, land use, etc. – not elevated CO2 levels. Science objectivity on this topic has long ago been suspended. IPCC has been politicized – it’s predictions are not believable.
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MAJOR GREENHOUSE GASES
GCMs 36o 1 x CO2 – 0.5oC 2 x CO2 2 x CO2 3o 2o 1 x CO2 CO2 H2O
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BEING A PRISONER OF THE CLAUSIUS-CLAPEYRON MYTH
i.e. – constant RH, increase q CC UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR (q) Obs. THEORY ΔΤ
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ (W/m2) q+ OLR Evap. + 238 234 230 226 Emission
Level q+ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Evap. +
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Reanalysis Data ISCCP Data
NEW GLOBAL DATA SETS 1950 Reanalysis Data 2007 Albedo OLR 1984 2004 ISCCP Data Schwartz
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400 mb Specific Humidity Yearly Average Standardized Anomalies for 90oN-90oS, 0-360
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004
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1984-88 P.W. (440-550 mb) Mid-level vapor SCHWARTZ 2008
P.W. ( mb) SCHWARTZ 2008 - 1 Mid-level vapor - 2 ∆ Ave. 16 Years - 3 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
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HANSEN – early model + 50% + 6% Δq ΔRH Changes for a doubling of CO2
Pressure (hPa) Pressure (hPa) Δq ΔRH Change in specific humidity (%) Change in relative humidity (%)
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Heartland NY 3-09 JAMES HANSEN
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Jun-Jul-Aug Dec-Jan-Feb UK Met. Service Pressure (mb) Height
100 16 km 300 10 km 4 Pressure (mb) 500 5 km Height 4.1 3 700 3 km 3 900 1 km Dec-Jan-Feb 100 16 km 300 10 km 4 5 Pressure (mb) 500 3 5 km Height 700 3 km 900 1 km UK Met. Service
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Jun-Jul-Aug Dec-Jan-Feb
-1 1 2 Height 3 Pressure (mb) 3 4 4 3 5 3 Latitude Jun-Jul-Aug -1 1 1 2 Pressure (mb) 2 Height 3 4 3 3 5 NCAR Dec-Jan-Feb Latitude
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2 Pressure (mb) 3 Height (km) 4 4 3 GFDL – ANNUAL AVERAGE
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Upper vs. Lower level water vapor correlations
100 GCM 200 300 400 Upper vs. Lower level water vapor correlations 500 Pressure (mb) 600 700 800 900 Observation 1000 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Correlation Coefficient SUN & HELD 1996
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W/m2 SOLAR LONGWAVE ∆CO2 W/m2 DAILY 342 235 107 0.6 1.3 3.7 ALBEDO
Since 1850 Late 21st Century
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ENERGY INVOLVED (Watts/m2) ATMOSPHERIC CONDENSATION
148 70 78 1.3 3.7 ENERGY INVOLVED (Watts/m2) Daily water vapor replacement rate is over a million times faster than the rate of CO2 buildup ATMOSPHERIC CONDENSATION SFC EVAPORATION 2008 SFC RAINFALL ATM. EVAP CO2 (double) CO2 150 yrs 250 yrs
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∆ E ≈ 0.6o W/m2 ∆ T ≈ 0.14o (CO2) ∆ T ≈ 0.5o (Obs.) CO2 -ppm – 400
2008 382 .60 W/m2 1975 332 – 300 BACKGROUND (290) – 200 CO2 -ppm ∆ E ≈ 0.6o W/m2 ∆ T ≈ 0.14o (CO2) – 100 ∆ T ≈ 0.5o (Obs.) – 0 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028
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What is the major cause of Global Temperature Change?
Heartland NY 3-09 What is the major cause of Global Temperature Change?
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Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)
3 1 2 X X Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)
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As primary causes of the last century global climate changes.
I DISCOUNT: Solar and/or sunspot changes Volcanic activity Cosmic rays Aerosols Other factors As primary causes of the last century global climate changes.
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DEEP OCEAN DRIVEN CLIMATE CHANGE
SOLAR COOLING STRONG MOC Globe Cooling Pole Eq. N. Pole SOLAR Less COOLING WEAK MOC Globe Warming Pole Eq. N. Pole
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~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~ UPWELLING SINKING
NORTH ATLANTIC and OFF-SHORE ANTARCTICA UPWELLING SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OCEAN WATER ~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~ Sfc. 1 km SINKING (0-3oC) 2 km 3 km 10oC 10oC 20oC 30oC
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Global Oceans MOC THC SAS + = Meridional Overturning Circulation Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Surrounding Antarctic Subsidence
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ MOC 10 25 Sv 15 a AVG.
AABW NADW ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 15 35 Sv 20 b STRONG AABW NADW ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 5 15 Sv 10 c WEAK AABW NADW SP NP
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THC SAS SAS
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THC Strong THC Weak
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N. Atlantic SSTA THC Fast Slow Slow
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COASTAL POLYNYAS
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FCST.
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MORE UPWELLING COOLING LESS UPWELLING COOLING
Strong MOC MORE UPWELLING COOLING More Rain MOC Weak LESS UPWELLING COOLING Less Rain
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ RAIN − RAIN + T- T+ T+ T-
Albedo Global Scale Anomalies net OLR T− RAIN − T- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ T+ Less Evap. OLR > Albedo Anomalies OLR net Albedo T+ T+ RAIN + ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Schwartz 2009 T- More Evap.
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Enfield and Mastas Nunez (1998)
THC - Strong ? COOLING ? WARMING COOLING WARMING COOLING Enfield and Mastas Nunez (1998)
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Mixed Layer Thermocline
Solar +25 MEAN ~~~~~~~~~~ MOC -25 Mixed Layer Thermocline MOC = -25 Steady State ∆E = 0 SP NP Solar +25 THC STRONG ~~~~~~~~~~ -35 Mixed Layer COOLING More Rain MOC = -35 ∆E = - 10 SP NP Solar +25 THC WEAK ~~~~~~~~~~ - 15 Mixed Layer WARMING Less Rain MOC = -15 ∆E = + 10 SP NP
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Multi-century + decadal
? Multi-Decadal TEMPERATURE THC Multi-century + decadal mean THC neg. Multi-Century Multi-Decadal 1880 1910 1940 1975 2008 2030
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Globe Cooler Globe Warmer 19TH Century 20TH Century
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Heartland NY 3-09 A Possible 20th-Century Slowdown of Southern Ocean Deep Water Formation (Wallace S. Broecker, 1 Stewart Sutherland, 1 Tsung-Hung Peng 2) Chlorofluorocarbon-11 inventories for the deep Southern Ocean appear to confirm physical oceanographic and geochemical studies in the Southern Ocean, which suggest that no more than 5 Sv of ventilated deep water is currently being produced... …A major reduction in Southern Ocean deep water production during the 20th century (from high rates during the Little Ice Age) is occurring. Science 5 November 1999: Vol no. 5442, pp
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CONCLUSION Natural climate change dominates over anything humans can do. We should not institute efforts for large reductions of CO2 at this time.
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