1. Impact Evaluation of Social and Productive Interventions By
Social Protection
From Protection to Production
Impact Evaluation of Social and Productive Interventions By
Moses Chibole and Luca Pellerano
Social Protection Week
30th Nov 2017

2. Study has been undertaken by
Introduction
Study has been undertaken by
Justin Kagin, Kagin’s Consulting
J. Edward Taylor and Irvin Rojas, University of California, Davis
In collaboration with FAO and ILO.
Background
Limited financial resources demand that public expenditure is oriented towards higher-impact and more cost effective interventions in Ag and SP
Limited evidence of the cost effectiveness of alternative agricultural and social protection programmes,
no evidence on likely impacts of combinations of interventions.
LEWIE seeks to address these gaps

3. no evidence on likely impacts of combinations of interventions.
Background
Limited financial resources demand that public expenditure is oriented towards higher-impact and more cost effective interventions in Ag and SP
Limited evidence of the cost effectiveness of alternative agricultural and social protection programmes,
no evidence on likely impacts of combinations of interventions.
LEWIE seeks to address these gaps

4. What Is LEWIE?*
Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation

5. LEWIE considers spillover effects
The LEWIE model
LEWIE considers spillover effects
LEWIE considers the the full impact and not just impact on the treated
LEWIE provides an Ex ante(forecast) to look for impacts including in the non treated economy
LEWIE provides a laboratory for exploring alternative designs, complementary interventions/scale up programmes

6. To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to inform policy decisions
The LEWIE model……
This piece of work is about simulating the impacts of agricultural and social protection policy options on production, food security and poverty
Objectives -inform the design of coherent agricultural and social protection interventions and budget allocations to these programmes.
Project has 2 arms:
Construct a local economy-wide impact evaluation (LEWIE) model useful for simulating the impacts of social protection and agricultural policy reforms
To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to inform policy decisions

7. Where Do Spillovers Come From?
Intervention affects income and/or production in beneficiary households
… thus demand in the local economy
… supply must rise to meet this demand (otherwise, inflation)
Productive interventions can increase supply directly
Economic impacts depend critically on the supply response
If local supplies expand to meet demand, SCTs can have a multiplier effect on local income
Otherwise the program could be inflationary
Impacts of productive interventions depend on the demand response
If local demand expands to absorb supply, productive interventions can have a multiplier effect on local income
Otherwise the program could be deflationary
Different kinds of interventions  different spillovers

8. How To Make a LEWIE Model Step 1: Build Models of Beneficiary and Non-beneficiary Households (We have 18 household groups)
Rich tradition of household-farm modeling in development economics
Models of Beneficiary Households
Models of Non-Beneficiary households
Data from LCMS & RALS surveys

9. Household Groups in the Zambia Rural LEWIE Model

10. Step 2: Combine the Household Models into a Model of the Local Economy
Rest of World
Model of Whole Rural Economy
Models of Beneficiary Households
Models of Non-Beneficiary households
Data from LCMS & RALS surveys

11. Model of Whole Rural Economy
Step 3: Use the Model to Simulate Impacts of Individual or Combined Programs
Rest of World
Model of Whole Rural Economy
Policy Changes
Models of Beneficiary Households
Models of Non-Beneficiary households

12. Key Findings from LEWIE Simulations

13. 1. SCTs Have Social and Productive Impacts

14. …and Create Income Spillovers for Other Households

15. No Evidence of Diminishing Returns in SCT Program

16. 2. FSP Creates Larger Real Income Multipliers by Targeting Households with More Land

17. 3. FISP Income Multipliers Increase with Landholdings

18. eFISP Has Big Productive. but Not Big Poverty Impacts
eFISP Has Big Productive* but Not Big Poverty Impacts * Especially on non-maize crops

19. 4. Higher Maize Prices Stimulate Production but Reduce Food Consumption and Agricultural Diversification (The also increase dietary diversification, but for the wrong reason.)

20. 5. Irrigation and Extension Can Increase Production and Have Real Income Benefits for All Households

21. 6. Higher Productivity from R&D Increases Food Security

22. And There Are Large Income Multipliers from R&D for Non-maize Crops

23. 7. No Single Intervention Achieves All of Zambia’s Goals

24. Combined Interventions* Do Better
* Not necessarily to the same households

25. 8. Multiple Interventions
8. Multiple Interventions* Are the Least-cost Way to Achieve Multiple Policy Goals
* Carefully targeting different household groups

26. Thank you