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Project Title: Global Precipitation Variations and Extremes

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1 Project Title: Global Precipitation Variations and Extremes
PI: R. Adler (UMD) Co-I’s: G. Huffman (SSAI/GSFC), G. Gu (UMD/GSFC), S.Curtis (ECU) Science issue: Determine how the characteristics of global precipitation are changing in terms of means, variations and extremes and integrate this info. into energy/water cycle studies Approach:Analyze the GPCP record along with other shorter, high quality data sets such as TRMM Satellite-based data: GPCP, TRMM radar and passive estimates, SSM/I, AMSR, TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3-hr data Other data and models:Other water cycle/ reanalysis data sets Study Period:1979-present for long-term studies; present (TRMM period) for focused comparisons and extremes Progress toward Implementation Plan: • Determination of climatological rain and bias error using multiple products for water cycle closure. Estimate of bias error for global precipitation is  =.25 mm/d; /= 9.5%. • New GPCP V2.1 released: Main changes over land due to new gauge analysis. Global mean now 2.68 mm/d (+2% globally; +6% over land from V2). Trend pattern similar, tropical ocean positive trend reduced. Should improve land water balances. • Rainfall comparison with MERRA initiated. Means, inter-annual New GPCP V2.1 Means and Trends GPCP ‘98-’07 Mean () Std.Dev. () of products # of input products / mm/d variations, daily distributions, extremes, temp./rain relations. Early results indicate recent ocean means a little high over tropics, a little low in mid-latitudes, generally better than other re-analyses. ENSO pattern and magnitudes good, but trends problematic. GPCP V2.1 Mean ( ) mm/day Adler, R.F., G. Gu, J.-J. Wang, G.J. Huffman, S. Curtis and D. Bolvin, 2008: Relationships between Global Precipitation and Surface Temperature on Inter-annual and Longer Time Scales ( ). J. Geophys. Res., 113, D22104, doi: /2008JD Huffman, G. J., R. F. Adler, D. T. Bolvin, and G. Gu (2009), Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP Version 2.1, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L17808, doi: /2009GL GPCP V2.1 Trend ( ) mm/day/decade 1

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