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Janet Larsen, Director of Research May 2008

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Presentation on theme: "Janet Larsen, Director of Research May 2008"— Presentation transcript:

1 Janet Larsen, Director of Research May 2008
Growing Food Insecurity Food-to-Fuel and Other Challenges Janet Larsen, Director of Research May 2008

2 Corn Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April 2008
Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com

3 Wheat Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April 2008
Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com

4 Soybean Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April 2008
Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com

5 Rice Prices, 1985 – 2008 (Monthly 100% Grade B)
Dollars per Ton Source: USDA ERS

6 Food Price Unrest Around the World
September 2007 – May 2008 Compiled by Earth Policy Institute

7 Source: EPI, USDA, FT Top Grain Exporters Quantity (million tons)
United States 106.1 Argentina 28.1 Canada 18.6 E.U. 14.3 Russia 13.1 Australia 10.6 Thailand 9.3 Kazakhstan 9.0 Brazil 8.7 Vietnam 5.0 Top Corn Exporters Quantity (million tons) United States 62.0 Argentina 15.0 Brazil 9.0 Paraguay 1.6 Ukraine 1.2 China 1.0 South Africa 0.8 India 0.5 Canada 0.4 E.U. 0.3 Top Wheat Exporters Quantity (million tons) United States 32.5 Canada 14.5 Russia 12.0 Argentina 11.0 E.U. 9.0 Australia 8.0 Kazakhstan Ukraine 5.2 China 2.5 Turkey 1.5 Top Rice Exporters Quantity (million tons) Thailand 9.0 Vietnam 5.0 United States 3.5 India 3.4 Pakistan 2.9 China 1.3 Egypt 1.1 Uruguay 0.8 Argentina 0.5 Cambodia Source: EPI, USDA, FT Red circles indicate export restrictions in place as of May 2008

8 Top Ten Grain Importers: Share of Consumption from Imports
Source: USDA

9 World Grainland Area Million Hectares Source: USDA

10 World Grainland Area Per Person
Hectares Source: USDA, UN

11 Source: FAO, Worldwatch
World Irrigated Area Million Hectares Source: FAO, Worldwatch

12 World Irrigated Area Per Person
Square Meters Source: FAO, Worldwatch, UN

13 World Grain Yield Annual Increase by Decade
Average Annual Increase (percent) Source: USDA, Worldwatch

14 World Grain Balance Million Tons Production Consumption Source: USDA

15 World Grain Carryover Stocks
Million Tons Source: USDA

16 World Grain Carryover Stocks as Days of Consumption
Source: USDA

17 U.S. Grain Use for Fuel Ethanol
Million Tons Source: EPI, USDA, RFA 2008 ethanol use is a projection by Earth Policy Institute

18 U.S. Grain Production and Use for Ethanol
Grain for Ethanol Million Tons * Source: EPI, USDA, RFA * 2008 ethanol use is a projection by Earth Policy Institute

19 Gasoline and Ethanol in the United States
Ethanol supplied less than 4% of gasoline consumption in 2007… … but used 20% of the U.S. grain harvest. Source: EPI, USDA, EIA

20 For more information: Lester R. Brown, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2008), C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer, “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2007. Financial Times, The Global Food Crisis, interactive map, The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, “The Failed States Index 2007,” Foreign Policy, July/August 2007. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, no. 2, April 2008. Robert B. Zoellick, President of the World Bank Group, “A Challenge of Economic Statecraft,” Speech at the Center for Global Development (Washington, DC: 2 April 2008).

21 References Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Market Recap Reports, at Lester R. Brown, “World Facing Huge New Challenge on Food Front,” Plan B Update, 16 April 2008, with additional information at Financial Times (FT), “The Rising Cost of Food,” updated 5 May 2008. Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), “Ethanol Biorefinery Locations,” at U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), FAOSTAT, electronic database at faostat.fao.org. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production Supply and Distribution, electronic database at USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), Rice Yearbook 2007 (Washington, DC: November 2007). USDA, Feedgrains Database, electronic database at U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA), Biofuels in the U.S. Transportation Sector, at

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