1. Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998
Population
Sources:
The World Food Problem
Leathers and Foster, 2004
World Hunger 12 Myths
Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998
Hesketh et al.,
New England J. Med 353:
Wikipedia
ttp://

2. Thomas Malthus
1798: Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society
Population growth tends to outstrip the means of subsistence
Food increases arithmetically while population increases geometrically
The poor can be kept alive by charity, but since they would then propagate, this is cruelty in disguise.

3. Paul Ehrlich 1968: The Population Bomb
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over.
In the 1970s the world will undergo famines—
Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death”

4. World Population through History

5. Demographic Transition
First, high birth rates and high death rates
Then, improved living standards, health cause death rates to drop
Finally, low birth rates match low death rates

6. Global Death Rates Demographic Transition:
First, death rates must drop
Then birth rates drop

7. Demographic Transition
: Occurred in developed countries
1950: Began to see death rates drop in developing countries
2050: Projected completion of transition

8. Demographic Transition
Example: U.S. History
When agrarian society, people had many kids
Source of security, labor

9. Demographic Transition
Example: U.S. History
When became industrial, fewer kids/family
Lowered infant mortality
No need to rely on children’s labor
More opportunities for women
Happened without birth control
Ford Motor assembly line

12. Global Fertility 1950’s: 5 children/woman 1970’s: 4 children/woman
Replacement: 2.1 children/woman

13. Global Population
Population growth rate is slowing down and will eventually stop
Dip in 1960 due to 30 million deaths in China
Great Leap Forward Famine

14. World Population Projection
Estimated to peak at 9 billion in 2070

15. World Population Growth

16. World Population Demographics
Asia: 6.4 Billion
China:: 1.3 Billion
India: : 1.1 Billion
Africa: 885 Million
Americas: 875 Million
Europe:: 727 Million
Oceana: 32 Million

17. World Population

18. AIDS 40 million people infected with HIV
2/3 in sub Sahara Africa
Many will die of AIDS
Will not greatly impact global population growth
Will Impact some countries
Losses by 2020:
Uganda 45%
Rwanda 35%
Malawi 30%
Malawi AIDS orphans

19. Global HIV 2008

20. Food Production per Capita
Food Production per capita is rising worldwide
But falling in Africa
Food production is generally keeping up with population
Otherwise food prices would have risen more

21. Food Production in Sub-Saharan Africa
Food Production in Sub Saharan Africa not keeping up with population

22. Progressivist View Things are good and getting better:
Worldwide standard of living
Education
Health
Trade
People are an asset.
Population causes shortages which raise prices,
stimulating entrepreneurs to satisfy the shortages.
We end up better off as a result.
Julian Simon

23. Progressivist View
Two important indicators of progress and improvement in life are
Decreased Infant Mortality
Increased Life Expectancy

24. Progressivist View Poor Poor Progress
Elite
Progress
Elite
Poor
Population stimulates economy: progress. We are all better off
Poor

25. Revisionist View Civilization is based on Agriculture
Adoption and spread of agriculture
have trapped humanity in a spiral of
Population growth
Ecological destruction
Social tyranny.
The problem stems from the
anti-ecological culture (religion)
of agricultural societies
humans believe they are above and not part of nature (global ecosystem)
and therefore can destroy it at will.
Civilization is based on Agriculture

26. Daniel Quinn
1992: Ishmael
Although population is 5.5 billion, we produce enough food for 6.0 billion even though millions are starving
Because we produce enough food for 6 billion, in 3 or 4 years there will be 6 billion people.
Then, even though millions are starving, we will produce enough for 6.5 billion.
Thus in another 3-4 years there will be 6.5 billion
To halt this process, must face the fact that increasing food production doesn’t feed the hungry, it only fuels the population explosion.

27. Agricultural Revolution
Hunters & Gatherers
Agriculture
Food production
Expanding population & environmental destruction
Conquest for land
Population Growth
Technology
Culture

28. Revisionist View Poor Social Tyranny
Elite
Over-Population, Ecological Destruction
Agriculture, Anti-Ecological Religion
Wealth
Resources
Poor
Root Causes
Social Tyranny

29. Social Equity View Problems of Are due to poverty overpopulation
ecological destruction
Are due to
inequity of wealth
unfairness of economic and social systems
Frances Moore Lappe, Food First

30. Social Equity View Inequity causes overpopulation
Poor have no other source of wealth
Overpopulation causes ecological destruction
Must make economic and social systems fairer
Share control of global resources more fairly
Economic democracy

31. Social Equity View Inequity Over-Population Ecological Destruction
Elite
Wealth
Over-Population
Ecological Destruction
Poor
Inequity
= Root Cause

33. Both hunger and high fertility occur when:
Poverty is extreme and widespread
Society denies security and opportunity to people
Infant mortality is high
Most people can’t get land, jobs, education, health care, old age security
Few opportunities for women outside of home
Bangladesh mother

34. Children Labor force Chance for a job in city Security
major investment
rational choice
168 million children work – half in hazardous work

35. Women’s Education Powerful predictor of lower fertility
Reflects opportunity in society
Girls in school, India

36. Male Poverty Low self-esteem Dominate women and children
Thus more children

37. Examples Sri Lanka: Cuba: Kerala, India: lower price rice, kerosene
led to population decline
Cuba:
low prices for food and health care
reduced population rate from 4.7 to 1.6
Kerala, India:
lower price rice, kerosene
1/3 birth rate of average in India
Literacy for women is 2.5 times average in India
Kerala, India

38. Family Planning
Birth Control is responsible for only 15-20% total fertility decline
Thus population growth cannot be brought down simply by family planning or contraception
but it can speed the decline
Contraceptive use in Developing World has increased
9% in 1960
60% in late 1990s
Demographic Transition requires improved
Health
Social Security
Education
IUD: Intra Uterine Device

39. Global Fertility

40. Sterilization Encouraged by Western donors for developing countries
Quotas are set
Incentives are used
Cash, roads, transportation, latrines
For hungry, choices are limited
1/3 of married women in India and China are sterilized
Indian woman

41. Puerto Rico: La Operacion
U. S. seized in 1898
Spanish American war
Sugar companies set up vast plantations
Small farmers evicted
By 1925
2% of population owned 80% of land
70% of population landless’
Unemployment
termed “overpopulation” by U.S.
By 1940’s
light manufacturing moved in
attracted to cheap labor, low taxes

42. Puerto Rico: La Operacion
Young women were key to labor force
Problem was pregnancy
Result: massive sterilization program
Women coerced into sterilization
without being told it was irreversible
By 1968
1/3 of women childbearing age were sterilized
Emigration and sterilization
resulted in population drop
with no increase in standard of living.

43. Bangladesh Intensive Family Planning Contraceptive use doubled
in Matlab region
Contraceptive use doubled
Resulted in reduced birth rate
Cost was very high:
$120/birth averted
This is 120% of per capita gross domestic product
Not replicable on a national scale

44. China
1950s, 60s Under Mao
children encouraged
Fertility rate: 5.9 children/woman
new policy to cope with overpopulation
“one is good, 2 is ok, 3 is too many”
“late, long, few”
Have fewer children later
greater spacing between
Fertility dropped steeply to 2.9

45. Fertility decline in China

46. China One Child Policy 1979 “one child” policy enacted
For urban areas
Material benefits
if have 1 child
Social & official pressure
If have more than 1 child
71% Chinese are rural
Multiple children are common
Fertility rate has declined
But also declined in other Asian countries without coercion
Human rights violation?

47. Birth Control Methods in China

48. Skewed sex ratio Sex ratio at birth (2000) Boys preferred
117:100 male:female
Maternal Hepatitis B may account for much of the skewing
Boys preferred
Men care for parents in old age
Women join husband’s family
Care for husband’s parents
Selective abortion of girls
Use ultrasound to determine sex
If first child is a girl, want second to be a boy
Illegal but suspected
Female infanticide suspected
before ultrasound

49. Gendercide in India 400,000 missing girls a year