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GERMAN BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC MEETING 2012
XXX Entrepreneurial Meeting and XXXIX Meeting of the Joint Commission on Economic Cooperation Frankfurt, Germany - July1st to July 3th, 2012 ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DA INFRAESTRUTURA E INDÚSTRIAS DE BASE Ralph Lima Terra Executive Vice President
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INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
ACTUAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT 2011 Prices US$ Billion 2011 Prices: Figures updated by inflation over the period Exchange rate 2011 : 1 US$ = 1.67 R$ “ “ : 1 US$ = 1.76 R$
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INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE 2011-2015 (US$ billion )
ELECTRIC POWER US$ OIL AND GAS (*) US$ 241.2 TRANSPORT/ LOGISTICS US$ TELECOMMUNICATIONS US$ WATER AND SANITATION US$ 48.3 TOTAL US$ (*) E&P, downstream, gas and energy. Exchange rate: 1 US$ = 1.76 R$
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OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
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10-YEARS EXPANSION PLAN (2011/2020)
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR ELECTRIC POWER 10-YEARS EXPANSION PLAN (2011/2020) This expansion plan has an integrated vision of the demand expansion and different available sources. GENERATION Expansion plan will increase the installed capacity (109,578 MW) with additional 61,560 MW (23% renewable). TRANSMISSION Physical expansion of the transmission system (99,649 Km in Dec. 2010) is expected to happen with additional 42,553 Km Global Substation System (222,119 MVA in Dec.2010) will add new 69,251 MVA
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OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
OIL & GAS E & P After-Salt areas 11th Bid Round – 174 blocks (planned) 87 off-shore 87 on-shore Pre-Salt area – New frontiers Basins in Santos, Campos and Espirito Santo state Shipyard and Systems Modernization and Expansion of Transpetro (Petrobrás subsidiary company) fleet Demand for building and/or leasing of: Drilling equipments, production platforms, special and support ships
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NATIONAL PLAN FOR LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORT
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR TRANSPORT Goal: to recover investment level in infrastructure, addressing 1% of GDP at least, over NATIONAL PLAN FOR LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORT Roadways: conservation and expansion of network Railways: restructuring and expansion from 28,830 Km to 44,720 Km (load) Passengers: High Speed Train (São Paulo / Campinas / Rio e Janeiro): 511 km - Expected investment : US$ 23 B Public hearings planned for 2012
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Ports OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR TRANSPORT
NEW PROJECTS PLANNED: A new plan addressed by the regulatory agency indicates 19 areas along the Brazilian coast where to develop and build new ports. Private sector is also expected to invest and operate. The first project will be set in Manaus (Amazonas State, North Region) involving US$ 795 million.
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Ports OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR TRANSPORT
A technical study by Government to evaluate both the institutional organization and management efficiency of the global Port sector is ready and under analysis at the Civil Cabinet. Study structure: Sector characteristics under several aspects: institutional, physical, economic, management, and legal; Proposals for directions such as: Model on how to explore the port infrastructure Management of a public port Port operations efficiency Institutional organization Suggestions on how to elaborate a law bill for the institutional organization
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OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
TRANSPORT Airports Investment plan (2010 to 2014) Infraero, federal state-owned company, has released an investment plan for 16 airports with an amount of US$ 5.6 billion. Bidding processes under way or about to happen. Private sector new opportunities (2011) The federal government started the concession model adoption in the Brazilian airport system. Private utilities will be responsible for investment and operation in a partnership with Infraero.
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OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
TRANSPORT Private sector new opportunities First airport concession: São Gonçalo do Amarante Airport (city of Natal) in the State of Rio Grande do Norte (Northeast). Auction done in Aug 22th. 2011 Three of major airports went under a bid last February (Brasilia, Viracopos, and Guarulhos ). Management will be done by private concessionaires who are investing 9.6 US$ billion over the concession period (25, 30 and 20 years respectively) and 1.7 US$ billion just until the World Cup 2014. Next airports to be under bid expected to be Rio International and Belo Horizonte.
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OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
WATER AND SANITATION National Plan for Water and Sanitation: Federal Government has built a plan (now under final hearings) that aims at universalizing the access to services of water and sanitation in 20 years (2030). Investment requirements: Goal is to provide water and sanitation infrastructure for 100% of the population. US$ 9.6 billion/year until 2030 or US$ 11.4 billion/year until 2025.
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OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR
TELECOMMUNICATIONS UNIVERSALIZATION OF TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES New contracts were signed between regulatory agency and private companies to extent infrastructure and services even to small communities in the country. Challenge to merge internet, broad band, TV and telephony Last June, a bid promoted by ANATEL (59 lots) awarded 6 telecom companies for very high speed wideband (4G) and rural wideband as well.
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Overall Projected Investment (US$ Billion)
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR PAC II (2011 – 2014) Overall Projected Investment (US$ Billion) Segment 2011 – 2014 Beyond 2014 Total For a better city (water & sanitation + urban mobility ) 32.4 -- For the community (healthcare + education) 13.1 My home, my life (housing) 158.1 Water and Light for all 17.4 Transport / Logistics 59.4 2.6 62.0 Energy 264.5 356.3 620,8 TOTAL 544.9 358.9 903.8 Exchange rate: 1 US$ = 1.76 R$ Source: Federal Government.
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Projected investment (US$ billion)
OPPORTUNITIES AND PLANS BY SECTOR PAC II (2011 – 2014) INFRASTRUCTURE AREAS Projected investment (US$ billion) Segment 2011 – 2014 Beyond 2014 Total Urban infrastructure (water & sanitation + urban mobility) 32.4 -- Water and Light for all 17.4 Transport and logistics 59.4 2.6 62.0 Energy 264.5 356.3 620.8 TOTAL 373.7 358.9 732.6 Exchange rate: 1 US$ = 1.76 R$ Source: Federal Government.
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WORLD CUP 2014 16 16
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WORLD CUP 2014 May 13, 2008 – Ministry of Sports and CBF (Brazilian Soccer Confederation) sign a Technical Cooperation Agreement with ABDIB March 2009 – ABDIB Study concluded : Infrastructure Demand to handle World Cup 2014 in 18 candidate host cities. Emphasis on structuring projects (multiplying factor) LEGACY 17 17
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WORLD CUP 2014 City Requirements Required Actions in 9 areas
Infrastructure for airports and ports Allowing transfers of delegations, tourists and supporters in a fast and efficient way Infrastructure for roads Enabling connections among airport / hotel / stadium Water & Sanitation Power Telecommunications Hotel network Able to meet demand Touristic and economic potential in the region Hospital network (public and private) Public Security 18
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WORLD CUP 2014 GAP ANALYSIS Explanation A
B Actual status Estimated status in 2014 with existing projects Gap still open to be closed with recommended additional projects Urban Mobility Hotel network Power Telecomm. Hospital Water/ Sanitation Security Airports Ports Key Indicators- Minimum level 18 Candidate cities Key Indicators - Ideal level Explanation Minimum Level Ideal level Minimum level of requirements to be a host city for 2014 World Cup Ideal level to enable a city to host any game in 2014 World Cup, independently of the phase
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Estimated Investment Volume (US$ Million)
WORLD CUP 2014 Estimated Investment Volume (US$ Million) Dimension Projects Amount URBAN MOBILITY 287 39,791.51 16 AIRPORTS 38 4,165.00 PORTS 7 463.71 ELECTRICAL POWER 128 1,566.65 WATER & SANITATION 186 7,313.82 HOTEL NETWORK 132 7,558.41 HOSPITAL NETWORK 25 690.47 SECURITY 63 2,478.79 STADIAS / ARENAS 12 3,836.12 TELECOMMUNICATIONS 30 2,049.53 Total 908 69,914.01
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WORLD CUP 2014 Total Brazil 120,730.12 Investment Potential
by Host-Cities Host City R$ Million MANAUS 6,036.95 SALVADOR 8,999.44 FORTALEZA 6,727.20 BRASÍLIA 6,169.50 BELO HORIZONTE 11,681.40 CUIABÁ 2,117.20 RECIFE 5,813.01 CURITIBA 6,830.21 RIO DE JANEIRO 18,675.90 NATAL 5,756.31 PORTO ALEGRE 7,352.20 SÃO PAULO 34,570.80 Total Brazil 120,730.12 Manaus Fortaleza Salvador Belo Horizonte Brasília Cuiabá São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Curitiba Porto Alegre Natal Recife
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WORLD CUP 2014: Arenas by Host City
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WORLD CUP 2014: Arenas by Host City
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Airports WORLD CUP 2014 INVESTMENT PLAN (2010 - 2014) Investment
Amount (US$ Million) São Paulo (Viracopos, Guarulhos) 1,217 Rio de Janeiro (Galeão, Santos Dumont) 491 Belo Horizonte (Confins) 289 Porto Alegre 687 Curitiba 228 Brasília Cuiabá 51 Manaus 186 Fortaleza 161 Salvador 25 Natal 328 Recife 11 TOTAL AIRPORTS 4,165
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WORLD CUP 2014 WATER AND SANITATION
INVESTMENT PLAN ( ) = 7.3 US$ b Some examples: City Project Objectives Belo Horizonte Investment on the Sewage System for BH Metropolitan network Expansion and improvement of the current Sewage System Cuiabá Increase in the Sewage Collection Expansion of sewage tunnels Curitiba Reduction, Disposal and recovery of solid waste Actions aiming at reducing waste generation and implement adequate disposal Fortaleza Implementation of the Cocó Macro System (Sewage) Cover 80% population Natal Implementation of collection network and ocean outfalls in Nothern region Cover 100% population via sewage network Porto Alegre New water collection Reduce cost of chemical products for water treatment Recife/Olinda Capibaribe Basin Re-urbanization, creation of new public areas and streets 36 boroughs in the western area improvement of environmental conditions in the Capibaribe basin Rio de Janeiro Sewage Expansion of the sewage collection and treatment for Rio Marangá basin, improving coverage. Salvador Expansion of the Sewage system - collection, pumping stations, home connections - Bacias do Comércio, Aratu-Macaco, Jaguaribi, Calafate 1 e 2, Alto do Camurujipe 1 e 2, Tripas, Saboeiro, Mangabeira e Península
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Ports WORLD CUP 2014 INVESTMENT PLAN (2010 - 2014) Investment
Amount (US$ Million) Project Description São Paulo (Santos) 86.4 Pier improvement and internal access Rio de Janeiro 178.4 Implementation of 3 Piers Manaus 50.8 Adaptation of 3 Storage Depots to Passenger Terminals, restauration of luggage storage, pier expansion, front-area urbanization with parking lots and passangers crossways. Natal 30.5 Adaptation of old installations to Passenger Terrminals, Pier expansion, area urbanization with parkings and better accesses Fortaleza (Mucuripe) 84.7 Construction of Passenger Terminal, new pier pavement, area urbanization with parkings and better accesses Salvador 20.5 Recife 12.4 Adaptation of a storage Depot and construction of a new passenger Terminal, pavement, and area urbanization with parkings and better accesses TOTAL PORTS 463.7
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WEBSITE FOR THE WORLD CUP 2014
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OLYMPIC GAMES 2016
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Investment (US$ million) Investment COJO * (US$ million)
OLYMPIC GAMES 2016 POTENTIAL INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE Area Investment (US$ million) Investment COJO * (US$ million) Total (US$ million) % Olympic Villages 1,270.25 0.0 20.69 Sport Installations 476.65 282.54 759.19 12.13 Security 235.95 0.00 3.77 Technology 202.93 35.82 238.75 3.81 Transport 3,730.00 59.59 Total 5,915.78 318.36 6,234.14 100.0 94.91 5.09 *COJO = Organization Committee for the Games
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OLYMPIC GAMES 2016 AGENDA Actions planned for the Olympic Games 2016 are perfectly connected with those for the Word Cup in Major projects in Rio include: Implementation of street works, special works, micro and partial drainage and / or adjustments in existing streets, to facilitate access to huge sports events; Reurbanization in areas sorrounding Maracanã and the harbour, with a great and significant social impact in installations, housing and transport; Corredor T5 - Barra da Tijuca – Penha (Bus Rapid Transit);
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OLYMPIC GAMES 2016 AGENDA Express corredor connecting Lagoa with Barra boroughs; Connection between Deodoro and Barra boroughs (BRT); Connection Barra and Penha (BRT); Rio Olympic Park; Olympic Centers; Media Village in Barra area; Olympic Village; Main Press Center and International Broadcasting Center Sponsors Village and Live Site.
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FUNDING (and Financing)
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BNDES FINANCING BY ECONOMIC SECTOR Original values, in US$ billion
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Agrobusiness 1.5 2.4 1.7 1.6 2.6 3.1 3.5 5.7 5.9 Industry 4.6 4.5 7.6 9.0 9.2 16.4 14.8 23.5 19.5 Basic industry 0.6 0.9 1.9 2.8 3.4 5.4 4.9 4.1 Services and Retail 1.2 6.3 10.6 17.4 19.6 Infrastructure 3.0 4.7 6.2 13.6 20.7 34.1 44.0 Total 10.9 19.3 23.6 33.3 49.7 68.2 95.7 83.2 Basic industry (%) in global outlays 5.7 6.5 10.0 12.1 10.2 6.3 7.8 5.2 4.9 Infrastructure (% ) in global outlays 27.5 34.8 32.2 32.3 41.0 41.7 50.0 46.0 41.1 Source: BNDES (Social and Economic Brazilian Development Bank)
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INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT FUNDS
Operating funds: AG Angra Infraestrutura: W&S + infrastructure sectors FIP Brasil Energia: energy and renewable energy Infra Brasil FIP: W&S + transport, energy BRZ Logística : transport FIP Caixa Ambiental: W&S FIP Energia PCH: Small Hydro and Thermal plants FI FGTS : all infrastructure sectors Note: Committed Capital: R$ 19.4 billion = US$ 11.6 billion
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RECENT RULES TO FOSTER INFRASTRUCTURE
Creation of a private market for investment project long-term financing, with focus on infrastructure development, as an additional source to BNDES. Law 12,431, in 2011, Jun. 24 Decree 7,603, in 2011, Nov. 9 Statement nº 18 (air transport ministry), in 2012, Jan. 23 Statement nº 9 (transport ministry), in 2012, Jan. 30 Statement nº 9 (ports ministry), in 2012, Feb.2 Statement nº 47 and 90 (electric power ministry), in 2012, Feb. 6 and Mar. 2 Statement nº 76 (national integration ministry), in 2012, Feb.15 Statement nº 181 (science & technology ministry), in 2012, Mar.7
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RECENT RULES TO FOSTER INFRASTRUCTURE
Law 12,431 and Decree 7,603 Objective: Regulate a private market for long-term financing with focus on infrastructure investment projects, as an additional source to public banks and BNDES. Issue process of infrastructure debentures Regulate how to approve investment projects in infrastructure (and research and development as well), to make them eligible to fiscal benefits Infrastructure projects will be approved for eligibility by the correspondent sector Ministry (by Statements)
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Without law With new law
RECENT RULES TO FOSTER INFRASTRUCTURE Debentures specifically issued to implement infrastructure investment projects in priority areas; Program to issue debentures will end 2015, December 31st; Fiscal Benefits on Income Tax Without law With new law Foreign investment 15% zero Individual (resident) 15 to 22.5% Company (resident) 25%
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RECENT RULES TO FOSTER INFRASTRUCTURE
Priority Areas to be covered in infrastructure Sectors (i) Logistics and transport; (ii) Urban Mobility; (iii) Energy; (iv) Telecommunications; (v) Radio -transmission; (vi) Water and Sanitation; Irrigation Objective implementation; (ii) expansion; (iii) maintenance; (iv) recovery; (v) adjustments; modernization
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VERY RECENT RULES TO FOSTER INFRASTRUCTURE
Released on June 27 Reduction of Long-Term Interest Rate from 6% to 5.5% per year Governmental procurement of R$ 8.43 billion (US$ 4.2 b) on equipments and vehicles to be done in 2nd. half of 2012 Preference to over 80 items manufactured in Brazil for governmental procurement (with a price margin from 8 to 25% depending on the technology content) until June 2017
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MARKET VALUE OF INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANIES
Source: Bovespa (São Paulo Stock Exchange) Elaboration: Abdib
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EXTERNAL INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE
Brazil has improved its ranking among the countries on direct foreign investment 2010 ranking 2012 ranking China 1st India 3rd 2nd Brazil 4th United States Germany 5th Australia 7th 6th Singapore 24th UK 10th 8th Indonesia 20th 9th Malaysia 21th Source: AT Kearney Elaboration: Abdib
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FINAL MESSAGE Investors in Brazil are twice welcome:
They can cooperate to Brazil’s very important development from both social and economic point of view Projects legacy will equally benefit society and those who accomplished them or helped in their accomplishment 42 42
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ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DA INFRAESTRUTURA E INDÚSTRIAS DE BASE
VIELEN DANKE! THANK YOU! Thank you!
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