1. IIASA and Russia Highlights (2008-2016)
January 2017

2. CONTENTS Summary National Member Organization
Some Leading Russian Personalities Associated with IIASA
Research Partners
Research Collaborations: Selected Highlights
Capacity Building
Further Information

3. SUMMARY (2008-2016) National Member Organization
Russian Academy of Sciences
Membership start date
1972 (from 1972 to 1991 as the Academy of Sciences, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics)
Research partners
45 institutes in Russia
Areas of research collaborations
Advancing the methods of systems analysis
Eurasian economic integration
Managing and monitoring Russia’s forest
Projecting Russia’s future population
Tackling air pollution and greenhouse gases in Russia
The Arctic and Russia
Global Energy Assessment and Russia
Capacity Building
21 young Russian scientists took part in IIASA’s capacity building programs; 32 students visited IIASA in 2016
11 training workshops and 3 conferences for Russian researchers and policymakers
Publication output
793 publications
Staff
Over 20 Russian scientists employed by IIASA every year

4. NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATION
Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)
Academician Alexei Gvishiani, Director, Geophysical Center, RAS, is IIASA’s Council Member
National IIASA Committee for Russia is chaired by Academician Vladimir Kotlyakov, Director, Institute of Geography, RAS
Left to right: Academician Alexei Gvishiani, IIASA Council Member representing the Russian Federation; Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat, IIASA Director General and Chief Executive Officer; Academician Vladimir Fortov, President of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS); and Academician Sergey Glazyev, Adviser to the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, and Director of the Institute of New Economy of the State University of Management.

5. SOME LEADING RUSSIAN PERSONALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH IIASA
Top left: Academician Jermen Gvishiani, first Chair of IIASA’s governing Council (1972–1987), was Deputy Chairman of the Soviet Council of Ministers for Science and Technology
Top middle left: Professor Leonid Kantorovich, who jointly won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1975 for his contributions to the theory of optimum allocation of resources, joined IIASA in the 1970s to work with fellow Nobel Prize winner Professor Tjalling Koopmans to expand IIASA’s study of advanced systems science and methodology.
Top middle right: Professor Yegor Gaidar, former Russian Prime Minister, consider by many to be the intellectual leader of Russia’s economic reforms in the early 1990s, made extended visits to IIASA during the early 1990s when the Institute was analyzing the problems of economic reform in the Soviet Union.
Top right: Professor Yevgeny Yasin, Russian Minister for the Economy from 1994 to 1997, led a Soviet delegation of experts to join economists from the West in an IIASA project to identify the steps to avert the collapse of the Soviet economy.
Bottom left: Academician Yuri Osipov, RAS President from 1991 to 2013, was a strong supporter of IIASA.
Bottom middle left: Andrey Illarionov, former senior economic adviser to President Vladimir Putin, participated in a 2012 IIASA conference into how our understanding of successful reforms in transition economies had changed since the early 1990s, and how it could help support economic transformation in the future.
Bottom middle right: Professor Petr Aven, Chairman of the Board of Directors at Alfa Banking Group and former Foreign Economic Relations Minister of the Russian Federation (1991–1992), was a participant in IIASA’s first Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) and an IIASA research scholar (1989–1991). Collaboration continues today with a Petr Aven Fellowship to fund YSSP participants and a 2012 conference at IIASA on economies in transition.
Bottom right: Academician Sergey Glazyev, Adviser to the President of the Russian Federation and Director of the Institute of New Economy at the State University of Management, is a long term collaborator with IIASA starting in 1988 when he participated in the YSSP. Professor Glazyev is currently coordinating the Eurasian Economic Integration research project with IIASA.

6. RESEARCH PARTNERS 53 institutions in Russia, including:
Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU)
Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federal Forestry Agency (Rosleskhoz)
Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR)
Russian Federal State Statistic Service (ROSSTAT)
Scientific Research Institute for Atmospheric Air Protection (SRI Atmosphere, JSC)
Steklov Mathematical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (SIF RAS)
Vladimir State University

7. RESEARCH COLLABORATIONS
Selected Highlights:
Advancing the methods of systems analysis
Managing and monitoring Russia’s forests
Eurasian Economic Integration
Projecting Russia’s future population
Tackling air pollution and greenhouse gases in Russia
Arctic Futures Initiative
Global Energy Assessment and Russia

8. MERGE SIMULATION RESULTS FOR RUSSIA
CO2 emissions in Gt C equivalent;
Upr, Opt, Con, and Ref are different model scenarios of Russia’s economic dynamics;
“Kyoto” is Russia’s emission level of 1990.
IIASA and the Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch, RAS, modified the MERGE model to explore future GHG emission reductions in Russia under different economic assumptions. Findings show that greenhouse gas emissions for Russia until 2030 are all below Russia’s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol.
Scenarios:
Conservative scenario (Con) is characterized by a moderate long-term economic growth rate on the base of active modernization of fuel-energy and raw materials sectors of Russian economy under preservation of relative backwardness in high-technology sectors. The average annual GDP growth rate is fixed at 2.5% for the time period 2013–2030. The Russian economy will increase 1.7 times till 2030, whereas Russia’s share in the world GDP will decrease from 4% in 2012 down to 3.4% in 2030.
Moderate optimistic scenario (Opt) development and by intensifications of investment orientation of the economic growth. The average annual GDP growth rate is estimated at 3.5% for the time period 2013–2030; this corresponds to the growth rate of the world economy.
Uprated scenario (Upr) is characterized by uprated growth rates, a large-scale industrial export sector, and a considerable international capital inflow. The scenario can be treated as an economic breakthrough; it provides the fulfillment of all the tasks set by the President of the Russian Federation in Decrees Nos. 596606 of May 7, 2012; these decrees contain economic development benchmarks for the time period till The average annual GDP growth rate is improved up to 5.3%; this will allow to increase Russia’s share in the world GDP up to 5.8% till 2030.
Reference MERGE scenario (Ref) testifies to a skeptical attitude to the short and medium-term perspectives of Russia’s innovation development on the hand of western experts. The average annual GDP growth rate is estimated in the range of 2.02.5% for the time period 2013–2030, the rate of energy efficiency improvement is stable but relatively low, the share of primary-energy export in GDP is almost constant. The prices at raw materials markets essentially depend on the fact which one from the world-wide scenarios, “shale gas breakthrough” or “shale gas failure”, will be finally put into effect.

9. INTEGRATED LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM OF RUSSIA (RESOLUTION 1 KM)
Hybrid Land Cover
Managing and monitoring Russia’s forests
IIASA’s forest experts and a variety of Russian research collaborators have been identifying the most effective ways to manage Russia’s forests in a changing world, as well as developing new methods to use satellite data to monitor changes to these forest resources.
The forests of Russia comprise almost one fourth of the world’s forest cover, making Russian forests a unique natural phenomenon both nationally and globally. They serve as extremely important refuges for terrestrial biodiversity, are a central component of stability of the biosphere at the continental scale, and a source of numerous ecosystem services essential for human well-being.
A ten-year project in close collaboration with the Russian Federal Forestry Agency resulted in an in-depth assessment of forest productivity and growth in Subsequently, the models and results were published as guidelines and standards for forest management across Russia in 2008 by the Russian Federal Forestry Agency and authored by IIASA’s forest experts.
IIASA’s databases on Russian forests along with detailed landcover mapping of Russia have underpinned multiple subsequent studies. These include: (1) calculating the first full verified greenhouse gas account for Russia as part of a Global Environment Fund project; (2) an assessment of the carbon absorbed by Russia’s and the World’s forests, which was published in Science; (3) an evaluation of the current state of the forest sector and its prospects to 2030 that was published by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation; (4) studies into how to minimize wild fires in Russia (see box: IIASA’s models, tools, and data, page 11); (5) the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for Russian forests for a World Bank project; and (6) research into environmental changes in Siberia, whose land provides one of the earliest indicators of the Earth’s response to climate change.
More info:

10. CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILD FIRES IN RUSSIA
Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance – sink ~600 Tg C yr-1
Further info:
Wildfire area and carbon emissions – ~9 M ha yr-1 & ~130 Tg C yr-1
More info:

11. EURASIAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
Analyze the challenges and benefits of greater economic integration between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan
Explore future collaboration between the EAEU and the EU
Study scenarios of Eurasian integration from Shanghai to Lisbon, its global integration, and future roles of key players including China, EU, Japan and Russia
Partners include:
Administration of the President of the Russian Federation,
Russian Academy of Sciences,
Eurasian Development Bank,
Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
In 2013, IIASA began coordinating an international and interdisciplinary initiative on the challenges and opportunities of economic integration within a wider European and Eurasian space. Since then a series of workshops have discussed and analyzed the critical issues of economic cooperation between an enlarged European Union, Customs Union (Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia), and their neighbors, including the key Asian players, such as China, Korea, and Japan. This could lay the foundations for a broader pan-European/Eurasian Economic Space "from Lisbon to Vladivostok" or even wider integration "from Lisbon to Shanghai."
The initiative has been supported by the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Eurasian Economic Commission, the Eurasian Development Bank, the European Commission, and some other European institutions. Topics analyzed so far include: trade policy, labor markets, non-tariff barriers, energy, and transport infrastructure.

12. PROJECTING RUSSIA’S FUTURE POPULATION
IIASA’s demographers study and project the changing composition of population
The Institute’s interdisciplinary setting has encouraged its demographers to research beyond the traditional boundaries of demography and to explore how changes in society, economy, and the natural environment influence the health and mortality, migratory patterns, and reproductive behavior of human society.
A recent innovative example of this broader approach has been the development of research methods to project population by level of education. This equips researchers with the tools to explore the implications of different education policies on a country’s future fertility, life expectancy, migration, and population level as well as economic growth, transition to democracy, and ability to adapt to climate change. In 2014 IIASA will publish the first projections of educational attainment by age and sex for 195 countries with Oxford University Press. Findings for Russia project the country’s current population of 143 million to become between 82 and 144 million by the end of the century.
Other studies focus on aging in Russia and include: (1) a planned collaboration with the Russian Federal State Statistic Service’s (ROSSTAT) Division on Population and Health Care on aging in Russia, which follows previous productive collaborations on population and household projections for Russia ; (2) a planned joint project with Lomonosov Moscow State University on pension reforms and aging; (3) the publication of an European Demographic Data Sheet 2012 which compared population projections, life expectancy and population aging across all European countries including Russia; and (4) an innovative study into measuring aging based not on people’s chronological age but on remaining life expectancy, people’s health and cognitive function among other measures.
In addition, IIASA’s demographers have trained students at Lomonosov Moscow State University in advanced demographic methods and computer applications in 2012 and 2013.

13. PROJECTING RUSSIA’S FUTURE POPULATION
SSP 1: Sustainability
This world is making relatively good progress toward sustainability, with ongoing efforts to achieve development goals while reducing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency. Elements that contribute to this progress are a rapid development of low-income countries, a reduction of inequality (globally and within economies), rapid technology development, and a high level of awareness regarding environmental degradation. Rapid economic growth in low-income countries reduces the number of people below the poverty line. The world is characterized by an open, globalized economy, with rapid technological change directed toward environmentally friendly processes, including clean energy technologies and innovations that enhance agricultural output. Consumption is oriented toward low material growth and energy intensity, with a relatively low level of consumption of animal products. Significant investments in education coincide with low population growth, and both government and private institutions are working together to promote public policy solutions and economic development. The Millennium Development Goals are achieved within the next decade or two, resulting in educated populations with access to safe water, improved sanitation and medical care. Other factors that reduce vulnerability to climate and other global changes include the implementation of stringent policies to control air pollutants and rapid shifts toward universal access to clean and modern energy in the developing world.
Population Component of SSP1: Rapid Development
This storyline assumes that educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition, leading to a relatively low world population. This implies assumptions of low mortality and high education for all three country groups. With respect to fertility assumptions the story is more complex. For rich OECD countries the emphasis on quality of life is assumed to make it easier for women to combine work and family, making further fertility declines unlikely. For this reason the medium fertility assumption was chosen for this group of countries. Low fertility assumptions were chosen for all other countries as implied by the assumed rapid continuation of demographic transition. Migration levels were assumed to be medium for all countries under this SSP.

14. PROJECTING RUSSIA’S FUTURE POPULATION
SSP 1: Sustainability
This world is making relatively good progress toward sustainability, with ongoing efforts to achieve development goals while reducing resource intensity and fossil fuel dependency. Elements that contribute to this progress are a rapid development of low-income countries, a reduction of inequality (globally and within economies), rapid technology development, and a high level of awareness regarding environmental degradation. Rapid economic growth in low-income countries reduces the number of people below the poverty line. The world is characterized by an open, globalized economy, with rapid technological change directed toward environmentally friendly processes, including clean energy technologies and innovations that enhance agricultural output. Consumption is oriented toward low material growth and energy intensity, with a relatively low level of consumption of animal products. Significant investments in education coincide with low population growth, and both government and private institutions are working together to promote public policy solutions and economic development. The Millennium Development Goals are achieved within the next decade or two, resulting in educated populations with access to safe water, improved sanitation and medical care. Other factors that reduce vulnerability to climate and other global changes include the implementation of stringent policies to control air pollutants and rapid shifts toward universal access to clean and modern energy in the developing world.
Population Component of SSP1: Rapid Development
This storyline assumes that educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition, leading to a relatively low world population. This implies assumptions of low mortality and high education for all three country groups. With respect to fertility assumptions the story is more complex. For rich OECD countries the emphasis on quality of life is assumed to make it easier for women to combine work and family, making further fertility declines unlikely. For this reason the medium fertility assumption was chosen for this group of countries. Low fertility assumptions were chosen for all other countries as implied by the assumed rapid continuation of demographic transition. Migration levels were assumed to be medium for all countries under this SSP.

15. AMBIENT PM2.5 CONCENTRATIONS (µG M-3) DUE TO ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES MODELED IN GAINS RUSSIA
2005

16. AMBIENT PM2.5 CONCENTRATIONS (µG M-3) DUE TO ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES MODELED IN GAINS RUSSIA
2030

17. ARCTIC FUTURES INITIATIVE
BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE GLOBAL DRIVERS ; IMPACT ON and FEEDBACKS WITH THE ARTIC
Holistic research approach by
Generating policy relevant questions
Collaboration with the Arctic Council, Arctic Economic Council, Arctic research community, governments, corporate decision makers and research funders
Using IIASA methodological frameworks
Holistic integrated assessment
As an Arctic country, Russia has a natural interest in Arctic affairs. The global significance of the region has also risen considerably in recent years as the economic potential of the Arctic’s natural resources and new transport routes emerge.
In 2014 IIASA began planning a new flagship project, known as the Arctic Futures Initiative, to conduct a holistic, integrative assessment of plausible futures of the Arctic. The project will use systems analysis to cut across different disciplines and integrate the perspectives of academia, policy, business and media. It will focus on developing future scenarios for the region and providing insights for decision makers that are independent of any particular country’s interest. Numerous Russian organizations are collaborating and helping to shape the initiative and include:
Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI), Ministry of Foreign Affairs,  Russian Academy of Sciences (Geophysical Center, Institute of Geography, Far East Geological Institute), Northern (Arctic) Federal University,
Nansen Center (Russia), and Russian Scientific Foundation.
Other collaborators on the project include researchers and diplomats from Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greenland, Norway, Sweden, United States, and international organizations such as the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) of the Arctic Council (of which Russia and the Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North (RAIPON) are permanent representatives).
Other recent studies about the Arctic in collaboration with partners in Russia include:
A study with the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology and the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, both at RAS, which found gas flaring from oil extraction in the Arctic accounts for 42% of black carbon concentrations in the Arctic;
A case study into the impact on Arctic warming of cutting black carbon emissions from wood burning stoves in Finland; and
Recommendations for Arctic Ministers to reduce black carbon and methane emissions to slow Arctic climate change.
BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE ARCTIC DRIVERS IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL SYSTEMS

18. GLOBAL ENERGY ASSESSMENT AND RUSSIA
Prof. Yuri Kononov, Russian Academy of Sciences, served as a member of the GEA Organizing Committee and Secretariat
UN Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All initiative adopted GEA’s key findings
Global Energy Assessment (GEA), published in 2012, defines a new global energy policy agenda—one that transforms the way society thinks about, uses, and delivers energy. Coordinated by IIASA and involving over 500 specialists from a range of disciplines, industry groups, and policy areas, GEA research aims to facilitate equitable and sustainable energy services for all, in particular for around three billion people who currently lack access to clean, modern energy. Russia contributed significantly to the GEA including Prof. Yuri Kononov, Russian Academy of Sciences, who served as a member of the GEA Organizing Committee and Secretariat.

19. CAPACITY BUILDING
21 Russians won places on IIASA’s Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) between 2008 and 2016 (198 Russians since the first YSSP in 1997)

20. POSTDOCTORAL FELLOWS
Artem Baklanov ( ) is analyzing iterated social dilemmas that will help reveal features of stability of interactions, thereby helping individuals learn, though interaction, how to cope with behavioral uncertainty, understand the interests of other individuals, and better adapt to changing social environments. (PhD from N.N. Krasovskii Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics of the Russian Academy of Sciences).
Postdoctoral researchers at IIASA work in a rich international scientific environment alongside scientists from many different countries and disciplines. The Institute’s research community helps its postdoctoral researchers to develop their research from fresh angles, to publish widely in journal articles, and to establish their own global network of collaborators. One postdoctoral fellow from Russia has participated in the program since 2008:
Artem Baklanov ( ) of the Advanced Systems Analysis Program is analyzing iterated social dilemmas that will help reveal features of stability of interactions, thereby helping individuals learn, though interaction, how to cope with behavioral uncertainty, understand the interests of other individuals, and better adapt to changing social environments. (PhD from N.N. Krasovskii Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics of the Russian Academy of Sciences).

21. ACADEMIC TRAINING WORKSHOPS
“Summer Academy on Economic Growth and Governance of Natural Resources” at Lomonosov Moscow State University in 2015.
“Population, Human Capital and Policy” at Lomonosov Moscow State University in 2013 & 2012
“Economic Growth: Mathematical Dimensions” at Lomonosov Moscow State University in 2009 & 2011
“Tutorial on IIASA’s GAINS model” for Russian national experts in 2009 at IIASA
“New Forest Management Products” at Irkutsk Forest Management Agency in 2008
“Forest Inventory” with the Russian Federal Forestry Agency, the Russian Institute of Continuous Education in Forestry, and partners in Austria in 2011
“Introduction to IIASA Research” for managers from Russian oil and gas companies in 2013
Apart from the three training workshops mentioned elsewhere in this Info Sheet, IIASA has also organized the following training activities:
Fifty-seven young scientists from 24 countries took part in the Summer Academy on Economic Growth and Governance of Natural Resources at Lomonosov Moscow State University in This was the third school (see below for the 2011 and 2009 schools) and participants studied contemporary concepts of the management of natural resources and economic growth and engaged in discussions of methodological and applied challenges in this field. It was co-organized by the University of Oslo, Moscow State University and IIASA with funding from the NordForsk-funded GreenMAR project.
Fifteen international students along with 29 students from across Russia attended the one-week, international, winter school on “Economic Growth: Mathematical Dimensions” in Moscow in January and February The winter school was jointly organized by Lomonosov Moscow State University, RAS and its Steklov Mathematical Institute along with IIASA. It included several IIASA researchers as its teachers who helped develop the skills of the students to study economic growth using formal mathematical analysis. The organizers had previously held a similar three-week course in July 2009 also at Lomonosov Moscow State University, which was equally well attended.
In 2011, IIASA along with the Russian Federal Forestry Agency, the Russian Institute of Continuous Education in Forestry, and partners in Austria, organized a seminar for top level regional managers and experts in forest inventory. It followed a similar workshop on new forest management products at Irkutsk Forest Management Agency in 2008.
Managers from Russian oil and gas companies, including Lukoil, Gazprom Neft, Rosneft, took part in a one day training session on IIASA interdisciplinary research in 2013.

22. Russian Academy of Sciences
FURTHER INFORMATION
IIASA and Russia
Russian Academy of Sciences