1. Droughts, Markets, Fuel, & Food
2nd Annual Farmers Coop Society Elite Crop Meeting
Sioux City, Iowa
Dec. 11, 2012
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
96.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
122.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
10,725
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
988
Imports 14 8 28 29
100
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,515
11,814
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,795
4,547
4,150
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,500
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,426
1,367
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,834
1,543
1,150
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,167
Ending Stocks
647
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
7.40
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,094
2,971
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
169
Imports 13 15 14 16 20
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,160
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,570
Seed & Residual
106
110
130 90
116
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,345
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,031
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.55
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Prices

5. Crop Conditions
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Projected Corn Yields

7. Projected Soybean Yields

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. World Weather
Source: USDC and USDA 10 10

11. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

12. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. U.S. Pork Projections
Source: FAPRI-MO

15. U.S. Beef Projections
Source: FAPRI-MO

16. U.S. Per-Capita Meat Consumption
Source: FAPRI-MO

17. Food Price Projections
Source: FAPRI-MO

18. Food Dollar
Source: USDA-ERS

19. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Population 2010 2020 2050 (billion) World 6.831 7.558 9.202 China
2020
2050
(billion)
World
6.831
7.558
9.202
China
1.330
1.385
India
1.657
1.173
1.326
1.304
U.S.
0.310
0.341
0.439
Indonesia
0.243
0.268
0.313
Brazil
0.201
0.223
Ethiopia
0.278
Pakistan
0.177
0.204
0.276
Bangladesh
0.158
Nigeria
0.182
0.264
0.152
0.181
0.260
Russia
0.139
0.132
0.234
Japan
0.127
Mexico
0.125
Congo
0.189
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

22. 10 Largest Economies (GDP Rank)
2020
2030
2040
2050 US
China
Japan
India
Germany
Brazil
France
Russia UK
Mexico
Italy
Indonesia
Canada
Source: PwC, The World in 2050, January 2011

23. Corn Grind for Ethanol

24. Ethanol Stocks
Source: DOE-EIA

25. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

26. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)26 26

27. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

28. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

29. Current Corn Futures
6.75
5.98
5.59
Source: CME Group, 12/10/2012

30. Current Soybean Futures
13.95
12.70
12.32
Source: CME Group, 12/10/2012

31. Total Acreage Shift
Source: USDA-NASS

32. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

33. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

35. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Soil moisture issues
Biofuel and export strength
Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing
2012/13
USDA
Futures
(12/10/12)
2013/14
Corn
$7.40
$6.75
$5.98
Soybeans
$14.55
$13.95
$12.70
Risk management
Crop insurance
Price protection

36. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: