September 2003 Managing on the Edge of Chaos: e-learning as a Catalyst for Organizational Development Professor J C Taylor Vice-President (Global Learning.

September 2003 Managing on the Edge of Chaos: e-learning as a Catalyst for Organizational Development Professor J C Taylor Vice-President (Global Learning Services) University of Southern Queensland Australia Napier University, Edinburgh

Managing on The Edge of Chaos
The Big Picture: A Global Perspective The Global Lifelong Learning Economy Institutional Leadership USQ’s e-University Project USQOnline Online Pedagogy: A Case Study Organizational Design and Development The Future

1982 ICDE Conference in Vancouver:
September 2003 1982 ICDE Conference in Vancouver: “Technology’s the answer, but what is the question?” Today, the technology has changed, but the question hasn’t! Napier University, Edinburgh

"gales of creative destruction”
September 2003 Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted that every 50 years or so, technological revolutions would cause "gales of creative destruction” in which old industries would be swept away and replaced by new ones. Napier University, Edinburgh

Technological Changes
Steam Power s to the 1840s The Railways s to the 1890s Electric Power s to the 1930s The Motor Car s to the 1980s Information Technology s to ?

Pace of Change 1. Radio: 50 million users in 38 years 2. Television:
3. The Internet: 50 million users in 5 years Common Prediction: One billion users by the year 2003

Internet Access Population (millions)
USA Japan 56.1 China UK Germany 32.1 South Korea 25.6 Brazil 13.9 Australia 10.6 Netherlands Sweden Total global population estimated at 580 million Source: A C Nielsen, June 2003

e-Readiness Rankings: Leaders
e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score 1 Sweden Denmark 3 (tie) Netherlands 8.43 3 (tie) US 3 (tie) UK 6 Finland 7 Norway 8 Switzerland 8.26 9 Australia 10 (tie) Canada 10 (tie) Hong Kong 8.20 12 Singapore 13 Germany Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, March 2003

The Knowledge Explosion
September 2003 The Knowledge Explosion Over 90% of the relevant literature in many technical fields, such as biotechnology, astronomy, computers and software, and environmental sciences, has been produced since 1985. J B Quinn (2001) Traditional programmatic approaches to education simply cannot keep up………... Napier University, Edinburgh

The Knowledge-based Economy
September 2003 The Knowledge-based Economy There are increasing signs that our current paradigms for higher education, the nature of our academic programs, the organization of our colleges and universities, and the way that we finance, conduct and distribute the services of higher education may not be able to adapt to the demands of our time. J J Duderstadt (2001) Napier University, Edinburgh

Cost-effective Access
In both developed and developing countries, the Internet will provide the only viable cost-effective conduit through which corporations and educational institutions will be able to provide access to ongoing opportunities for the continuing professional development of working individuals.

“E-Learning is the answer, but what is the question?”
September 2003 “E-Learning is the answer, but what is the question?” The question is : “How to change universities?” Napier University, Edinburgh

Why should universities change?
September 2003 Organisational Development Challenge Why should universities change? Increasing competition on a global scale. Napier University, Edinburgh

Driver for Change 'The death of distance as a determinant of the cost of communications will probably be the single most important economic force shaping society in the first half of the 21st century'. Cairncross (1997)

Fast, Flexible and Fluid
September 2003 Fast, Flexible and Fluid The transition from the Industrial to the Information Age was encapsulated by Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued that to survive organisations would need to change from rigid, formula driven entities to organisations that were “fast, flexible and fluid”. Napier University, Edinburgh

Increasing Competition
UCLA’s OnlineLearning.net has enrolled over 20,000 students in 1,700 online courses since 1996. Has offered student discounts, refer a friend gift certificates, frequent flyer points, opportunities to win free tuition.

The Cambridge e-MBA Cambridge University’s business school joined forces with FT Knowledge, part of the global communications group Pearson plc, to offer this new degree from September 2001.

Fast, Flexible and Fluid?
791 years ago Cambridge University passed a rule Requiring all students to reside in the town of Cambridge, England. In 2000 that rule was revoked. The 800 year-old rulebook had to be altered to make way for the university’s first Internet-enabled program, the global e-MBA.

reply received from University of Cambridge MBA Office on 13 March “Thank you for your enquiry concerning the Cambridge MBA course. We do not have on-line learning or distance learning, we have considered this but decided not to pursue this.”

AllLearn (an e-learning partnership between Oxford University, Stanford University and Yale University) is offering 75 short courses in a dozen disciplines in the Fall Semester, starting 7th October, 2002

September 2003 Increasing Competition In 2003, University of Phoenix Online has almost 50,000 students. It made a profit of $31.8 million in 2001, and a profit of $23.6 million in the first six months of 2002. Sources: The Economist (2002); Webzine (2003) Napier University, Edinburgh

UOPX The share price for Apollo Group, Inc. (NASDAQ NM: UOPX) recently reached a new 52-week high, trading at $58.250 One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $26.410 The price has climbed more than 120 percent since then. Source: Zacks.com (2003)

General Motors University General Motors University now offers an eMBA to provide online learning to as many as 86,000 GM salaried employees.

IBM’s Mindspan Solutions workplace and training systems employs 3,000 people to develop customised e-learning content for 900 clients in 57 countries. (Source: K Dearne (2002), The Australian IT)

Future Projections A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold (US$4.5 trillion) jump in global education expenditure during the next 13 years. (Source: Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal April 2000). The World Bank expects the number of higher education students will more than double from 70 million to 160 million by 2025.

Future Projections By 2005, e-learning will be the single most used application on the web. (Source: Harris, Logan & Lundy, Gartner Research, 2001). Corporate investment in e-learning will grow from US$2.1 billion in 2001 to US$33.4 billion in 2005.

Leadership? The fact that the present traditional approaches based on conventional classroom-based teaching and learning will not be capable of meeting the escalating demand for higher education in the knowledge society has apparently failed to register in the minds of many executive managers of universities.

Will universities become extinct ?
Within the next decade, the view that universities, like dinosaurs, may be unable to adapt to the increasing pressures of technological development and globalization is likely to gather empirical support.

What type of institutions will survive and thrive?
The Global Lifelong Learning Economy What type of institutions will survive and thrive? Will your institution survive?

Institutional Capacity for Change
While there is a great deal of business literature on companies that have “restructured” and re-engineered” to respond to new competitive threats and rapidly changing market conditions, universities are generally regarded as being stubbornly resistant to change as a result of the typically conservative and reactionary pressures both internal and external to the organization.

Source: D Stace & D Dunphy (2001)
Pressures for Change Increasingly pervasive technologies More sophisticated customers with rising levels of consumer service expectations Increasing levels of competition More emphasis on quality assurance, performance management, and strategic benchmarking Demands for continuous innovation Demands for higher quality of worklife. Source: D Stace & D Dunphy (2001)

Leadership Challenge Stepping onto many a university campus in as the information economy gains momentum – a visitor from 1950 would feel quite at home.

Leadership Challenge “The single greatest challenge facing managers in the developed countries of the world is to increase the productivity of knowledge and service workers.” Peter Drucker ( 1991).

Leadership Challenge “Technology is the key variable making possible, and imperative, the reinvention of the corporation”. Stace & Dunphy (2001)

Leadership? Many higher education institutions continue to think of information and communications technology (ICT) primarily as an escalating cost and a management headache, rather than seeking to understand the major cost-benefits available if the organization can reorganize its fundamental core processes to take advantage of the technology.

Random Acts of Innovation
September 2003 Random Acts of Innovation In many universities the development of web-based initiatives is not systemic, but is often the result of random acts of innovation initiated by risk-taking individual academics. Napier University, Edinburgh

Strategic Questions Does your executive management team acknowledge that the rapid evolution of ICT will demand a fundamental process of strategic transformation of your institution? Does your institution have a well-defined set of operational strategies aimed at technology- enhanced responsiveness and associated organizational development?

Organizational Development
The implementation of education technologies including web-based applications at USQ is strategically planned, systematically integrated and institutionally comprehensive.

USQ’s Strategic Direction
September 2003 USQ’s Strategic Direction To be a world leader in flexible learning and the use of information and communication technologies Napier University, Edinburgh

Management Structure of Online Initiatives
September 2003 Management Structure of Online Initiatives Academic Board Information Infrastructure and Services Committee VCC Online Teaching Management Committee Online Systems Management Committee Napier University, Edinburgh

USQOnline Course Enrolments (1999 – 2003)
S3 estimated

Enrolled Students USQ 2003 All students 22,908 On-campus 5,720
September 2003 Enrolled Students USQ 2003 All students 22,908 On-campus ,720 Off-campus (Australia) 12,606 Off-campus (Overseas) 4,582 Note: Students studying solely online Napier University, Edinburgh

USQ’s International Students 2003
Singapore ,598 Malaysia ,327 Hong Kong South Africa United Arab Emirates Japan Pacific Islands India Canada China Germany Total, incl. students from 67 other countries 6,976

Five Generations of Distance Education Technology
September 2003 Five Generations of Distance Education Technology The Correspondence Model The Multimedia Model The Telelearning Model The Flexible Learning Model The Intelligent Flexible Learning Model Napier University, Edinburgh

DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
First Generation MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO FLEXIBILITY HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY Time Place Pace THE CORRESPONDENCE MODEL Yes Yes Yes Yes No • Print No

Second Generation MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO FLEXIBILITY HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY Time Place Pace THE MULTIMEDIA MODEL Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No • Print Audiotape • Videotape Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL) Interactive video Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Variable costs tend to increase or decrease directly (often linearly) with fluctuations in the volume of activity. In traditional distance education delivery, the distribution of packages of self-instructional materials (printed study guides, audiotapes, videotapes, etc) is a variable cost, which varies in direct proportion to the number of students enrolled.

Third Generation September 2003 MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO FLEXIBILITY HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY Time Place Pace THE TELELEARNING MODEL No No No No Yes • Audio-teleconferencing Videoconferencing • Audiographic communication Broadcast TV/Radio and Audio-teleconferencing No No No No Yes Yes Napier University, Edinburgh

Fourth Generation MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO FLEXIBILITY HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY Time Place Pace THE FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes • Interactive multimedia (IMM) • Internet-based access to WWW resources • Computer mediated communication (CMC). Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Fifth Generation MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO FLEXIBILITY HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY Time Place Pace THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes • Interactive multimedia Internet-based access to WWW resources • CMC, using automated response systems Campus portal access to institutional processes & resources Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

5th Generation Application
September 2003 Ask a question/ send an NO Incoming “new” admin question from student USQAssist: Self-service Knowledge Base Search / Match Previous Questions Previous Answers USQ staff member – “New Answer” “Immediate” admin feedback to student YES Trigger 5th Generation Application Napier University, Edinburgh

September 2003 Metadata Schema Model NO Duty Tutor Incoming “new” academic question from student Reusable Learning Objects Database Search / Match Previous Questions <meta tags> Previous Answers <meta tags> New Answer “Immediate” academic feedback to student YES 5th Generation Application Trigger Napier University, Edinburgh

The GOOD System provides a simple way to Create, Manage & Re-purpose content

XML (eXtensible Markup Language) DTD (Document Type Definition)
Print Web CD DVD RENDITIONS: STYLE SHEET: XSL XSL XSL XSL XML CONTENT REPOSITORY: DTD (Document Type Definition) INPUT: XML Editor

September 2003 Ask a question/ send an NO Incoming “new” admin question from student USQAssist: Self-service Knowledge Base Search / Match Previous Questions Previous Answers USQ staff member – “New Answer” “Immediate” admin feedback to student YES Trigger 5th Generation Application Napier University, Edinburgh

USQAssist Self-Service Knowledge Base
During the first half of 2003 the system received: an average 9,075 hits per week; 95, 322 student contacts; 61,579 answers viewed; 23,079 searches performed; 3,566 questions using the “Ask a Question” facility. During S1, the e-CRM also managed a further 37,755 queries.

Self-Service Knowledge Base
USQAssist Self-Service Knowledge Base Student support staff also save 25% of their time through the use of the knowledge-base for the automatic generation of suggested answers to , phone and face-to-face enquiries

September 2003 Napier University, Edinburgh

The PC-ePhone

http://www.usqonline.com.au September 2003
Napier University, Edinburgh

Communication Areas Content Areas Student Areas
Group Areas Student Areas

The Big Picture: A Global Perspective The Global Lifelong Learning Economy Institutional Leadership Models of Distance Education USQ’s e-University Project USQOnline Online Pedagogy: A Case Study Organizational Design and Development The Future

The Potential of e-Learning
September 2003 The Potential of e-Learning From transmission to transaction From the independent learner to the inter-dependent learner Napier University, Edinburgh

Relevant Instructional Design Theories
ZPD: Zone of proximal development (Vygotsky, 1978; 1981) Reflective practitioner (Schon, 1987) Communities of practice (Brown, Collins & Duguid, 1989) Situated cognition (Lave & Wenger, 1991)

Brown & Duguid (2000) emphasised the importance of regarding learning as a social act:
“Practice is an effective teacher, and community of practice an ideal learning environment.”

Lave & Wenger (1991) emphasised the importance of the social context in which the learner is immersed, and learning as legitimate peripheral participation in a community of practice.

In the online context, legitimate peripheral participation has become associated with the term “Lurker”. “One of the “silent majority” in an electronic forum; one who posts occasionally or not at all but is known to read the group's postings regularly.” (The Jargon dictionary, 2002)

Student Participation Profiles
Proactive Peripheral Parsimonious Workers Lurkers Shirkers

Overview of Participation and Performance
Average Number: Discussion Board Hits 193 129 36 Student Sub-Groups The Workers The Lurkers The Shirkers Average Number: Messages Posted 38 13 4 Average: GPA 5.43 5.41 4.30

September 2003 Outcome The academic performance of the lurkers was on average not much less than that of the workers, thereby supporting the notion of learning as legitimate peripheral participation. Napier University, Edinburgh

virtual cohorts of students.
September 2003 The Future The success of the lurkers augurs well for the use of e-learning facilitated by intelligent databases and the flexibility inherent in interacting with virtual cohorts of students. Napier University, Edinburgh

September 2003 Metadata Schema Model NO Duty Tutor Incoming “new” academic question from student Reusable Learning Objects Database Search / Match Previous Questions <meta tags> Previous Answers <meta tags> New Answer “Immediate” academic feedback to student YES 5th Generation Application Trigger Napier University, Edinburgh

5th Generation As the intelligent databases become more comprehensive, the institutional variable costs for the provision of effective student support will tend towards zero.

5th Generation In effect, fifth generation distance provides students with better quality tuition and more effective pedagogical and administrative support services at lower cost.

Leadership Challenge: From Elite to Mass Higher Education
In 1946: 8 Australian universities teaching about 26,000 students. In 2003: 38 Australian universities teaching about 890,000 students.

The problems faced by mass higher education today come from a system which has become mass in its size but remains elite in its values. The recent external changes of numbers, structures, finance, and governance have not been matched by appropriate internal changes of values, purpose and activities. Source: Wagner (1995) p.21

Effective Organizational Structures?
“ The functional hierarchy and the divisional structure became, in time, career structures rather than effective organizational structures. People became more concerned about their career progression than about getting the job done” Source: Stace & Dunphy (2001)

Leadership Challenge To be effective: institutional strategy and organisational structure need to be constantly scrutinised and regularly realigned.

Alternative Structure?
Is there a plausible alternative organizational structure to the traditional hierarchies of universities that tend to promote departmental insularity?

New Academic Structure and Culture?
Proposed by Ostroff (1999) the horizontal organization has the potential to generate an academic culture which is more attuned to the rapidly emerging competitive, consumer driven, technologically sophisticated, complex work environment of higher education today.

Implementing the Horizontal Organization
Set a direction Design the appropriate organizational structure Take steps to institutionalize the change

USQ’s Strategic Direction
September 2003 USQ’s Strategic Direction To be a world leader in flexible learning and the use of information and communication technologies Napier University, Edinburgh

The Transformation Triangle Source: Steven F. Dichter et al (1993)
September 2003 The Transformation Triangle Source: Steven F. Dichter et al (1993) Napier University, Edinburgh

University Core Processes
Customer Acquisition & Administration Teaching, Learning & Assessment Customer Contact & Student Support Research Community Service Infrastructure Services

From Hierarchical to Horizontal
Organize self-managed teams around cross- functional core processes Create teams that can confidently assume responsibility for the entire process Allow team members to make decisions essential to team performance Promote multiskilling through appropriate training Source: Ostroff (1999)

From Hierarchical to Horizontal
Use ICT to help teams reach performance objectives Measure end-of-process performance objectives Build a corporate culture of openness, cooperation and collaboration that focuses on continuous performance improvement and values employee empowerment, accountability and wellbeing Source: Ostroff (1999)

Design Principles Organize self-managing teams around cross- functional core processes Appoint process owners to manage the core process in its entirety Make teams not individuals accountable for setting and achieving performance objectives Allow teams to make decisions essential to team performance Engage directly with stakeholders and customers Source: Ostroff (1999)

Professional Engagement
It is essential to give people a stake in organizational restructuring by providing them with an opportunity to design the team processes and to set performance objectives.

How to guarantee failure?
“It is, after all, a cardinal principle of human nature that excluding people is one of the surest ways to build their distrust and resistance” Source: Ostroff (1999)

Internal Turf Wars ? During the organizational design phase, executive managers need to keep in mind that improved performance, not restructuring the organization, is the key objective. It is all too easy to turn an organizational design process into a series of internal turf wars.

The e-Revolution “Any new technology environment eventually creates a totally new human environment” Marshall McLuhan

Institutional Sustainability
Fast, flexible and fluid organizations that can provide: customized, high quality, value added services that satisfy customer needs with speed and accuracy at the appropriate price point , are the only institutions that will survive and thrive in the 21st century.

“Fantasyland” Is this “fantasyland” for universities typified by the hierarchical, bureaucratic academic structure in which the provision of services to students is significantly inhibited by the ineluctable internal focus of departmentalized and/or compartmentalized thinking, personalised agendas, fragmented objectives, overly complex procedures and dependence on management via multiple layers of committees that move with glacier-like momentum?

“Clicks and Mortar” are not enough
September 2003 “Clicks and Mortar” are not enough Any organization hoping to survive and thrive in the information economy must become: open, non-hierarchical, democratic, experimental, tightly networked, endlessly adaptable and essentially horizontal Napier University, Edinburgh

“Clicks and Mortar” are not enough
September 2003 “Clicks and Mortar” are not enough To survive and prosper organisations need to mirror the Internet and to develop a collective brain capable of - “habitual and radical innovation”. (Gary Hamel, Inside the Revolution, 2001) Napier University, Edinburgh

Competitive Advantage?
The institutional capacity to execute an integrated approach to technology deployment constitutes a considerable competitive advantage.

Competitive Disadvantage?
“The greatest danger in times of turbulence, is not the turbulence…….. it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” Peter Drucker (1991)

It was not until 1927 that the detachment was disbanded.
In 1803 the British deployed a military attachment to stand on the Cliffs of Dover to watch for Napoleon. It was not until 1927 that the detachment was disbanded. Napoleon Bonaparte died in 1821. Source: Stace & Dunphy (2001)

September 2003 Managing on the Edge of Chaos: e-learning as a Catalyst for Organizational Development Professor J C Taylor Vice-President (Global Learning.

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September 2003 Managing on the Edge of Chaos: e-learning as a Catalyst for Organizational Development Professor J C Taylor Vice-President (Global Learning.

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