1. Forecast Factory or “Weather Prediction by Numerical Process” (1922)
Good afternoon. My name is Cristina Charlton-Perez and my colleague is Lee Hawkness-Smith and we work for the Met Office here in Reading doing research on data assimilation. Data assimilation means a set of mathematical methods which use a previous forecast by the weather model and all of the observations that come in to the Met Office data base from all of our observing networks (eg. on land, aircraft, satellites) to come up with the best (least error) initial state of the atmosphere. This initial state needs to be as precise as possible so that we can run our next forecast and get accurate results. Small inaccuracies in the initial state can cause errors to grow in the forecast because the atmosphere is inherently chaotic.
Today we are not talking about data assimilation but instead we would like to talk to you about the Forecast Factory an illustration of Weather Prediction by Numerical Process which is also the title of a book published in 1922 by this man…
Kirsty Hanley and Peter Hill

2. Lewis Fry Richardson (1881-1953) A famous British meteorologist
Today we will explore his idea.
The weather can be forecast by solving equations which represent the atmosphere.
Lewis Fry Richardson. I’ll tell you a little of his story which is a really fascinating life story.
He worked for the Met Office on 2 occasions:
1913 joined the Met Office and was the Superintendent of Eskdalemuir Observatory in Southern Uplands of Scotland. In May 1916 he resigned to join the Friends Ambulance Unit in France. As he was a Quaker, he was a conscientious objector and a pacifist. For 2 years he worked as an ambulance driver. During that time he undertook to compute a forecast by hand. During one battle he sent his working copy for safekeeping away from the frontlines and then it was lost. Months later it was rediscovered under a heap of coal.
When he returned to the Met Office after the war, he was in Benson (between Reading and Oxford). His mission was to conduct “experiments with a view to forecasting by numerical process.” The next year, the Met Office came under the authority of the Air Ministry so he resigned.
He published WPNP in The basic idea was that the solution to the equations which govern the physics of the atmosphere can be approximated numerically and with initial conditions derived from a good observing system, the whole system can be solved by computers (people) to produce a forecast of the future state of the atmosphere.
He was a man ahead of his time. Not appreciated for these ideas at the time. He also had insights in other fields: turbulence, peace/conflict studies.
“Perhaps some day in the dim future it will be possible to advance the computations faster than the weather advances and at a cost less than the saving to mankind due to the information gained. BUT THAT IS A DREAM.”

3. What did he imagine this foreacst factory would look like
What did he imagine this foreacst factory would look like? Remember that computers in those days were people who did computations by hand with pencil and paper.
Read quote from Richardson in the Weather paper.
“After so much hard reasoning, may one play with a fantasy? Imagine a large hall like a theatre, except that the circles and galleries go right round through the space usually occupied by the stage. The walls of this chamber are painted to form a map of the globe. The ceiling represents the north polar regions, England is in the gallery, the tropics in the upper circle, Australia on the dress circle and the Antarctic in the pit. A myriad computers are at work upon the weather of the part of the map where each sits, but each computer attends only to one equation or part of an equation.
The work of each region is coordinated by an official of higher rank. Numerous little "night signs" display the instantaneous values so that neighbouring computers can read them. Each number is thus displayed in three adjacent zones so as to maintain communication to the North and South on the map.
From the floor of the pit a tall pillar rises to half the height of the hall. It carries a large pulpit on its top. In this sits the man in charge of the whole theatre; he is surrounded by several assistants and messengers. One of his duties is to maintain a uniform speed of progress in all parts of the globe. In this respect he is like the conductor of an orchestra in which the instruments are slide-rules and calculating machines. But instead of waving a baton he turns a beam of rosy light upon any region that is running ahead of the rest, and a beam of blue light upon those who are behindhand.
Four senior clerks in the central pulpit are collecting the future weather as fast as it is being computed, and despatching it by pneumatic carrier to a quiet room. There it will be coded and telephoned to the radio transmitting station. Messengers carry piles of used computing forms down to a storehouse in the cellar.
In a neighbouring building there is a research department, where they invent improvements. But there is much experimenting on a small scale before any change is made in the complex routine of the computing theatre. In a basement an enthusiast is observing eddies in the liquid lining of a huge spinning bowl, but so far the arithmetic proves the better way. In another building are all the usual financial, correspondence and administrative offices. Outside are playing fields, houses, mountains and lakes, for it was thought that those who compute the weather should breathe of it freely.” (Richardson 1922)

4. ENIAC = Electronic Numerical Integrator And Computer
1950 Aberdeen, Maryland USA
Richardson’s Dream came true. Working 24 hours a day for 33 days, a group led by John von Neumann and Jule Charney produced four 24-hour forecasts. realistic ones! each forecast took about 24 hours to compute, so as the weather evolved they could track it but not forecast with any leadtime.
Richardson was made aware of the forecast results and congratulated the team.
16. Science and Technology Facilities Council - Daresbury LaboratoryUnited Kingdom Blue Joule - BlueGene/Q, Power BQC 16C 1.60GHz, CustomIBM
23. University of EdinburghUnited Kingdom DiRAC - BlueGene/Q, Power BQC 16C 1.60GHz, CustomIBM
Cores Rmax (TFlop/s) Rpeak (TFlop/s) Power (kW)
35. University of EdinburghUnited Kingdom HECToR - Cray XE6, Opteron C 2.30 GHz, Cray Gemini interconnectCray Inc.
37. ECMWFUnited Kingdom Power 775, POWER7 8C 3.836GHz, Custom InterconnectIBM
46.United Kingdom Meteorological OfficeUnited Kingdom Power 775, POWER7 8C 3.836GHz, Custom InterconnectIBM

6. Liverpool
Manchester
Lincoln
Cromer
Brecon
Birmingham
Rugby
Norwich
Bath
Reading
London
Weymouth
Portsmouth
Boulogne

7. We will predict the temperature at each grid-point
Collect data about winds and temperatures at our grid-point and to the north and west.
Fill in information on computing form.
Complete calculation.
Communicate prediction to other grid-points and forecast central (me).
Repeat 4 times.
Each calculation will predict one hour ahead, by the end of our forecast we will predict temperatures in 4 hours.

10. Solutions

11. Initial Conditions

12. Timestep 1

13. Timestep 2

14. Timestep 3

15. Timestep 4