1. The Montreal Protocol and Climate Change
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Marco Gonzalez Ozone Secretariat UNEP DECEMBER 2007

2. Vienna Convention / Montreal Protocol
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Vienna Convention / Montreal Protocol
Objectives:
VC: to protect human health and the environment against adverse effects resulting from modifications of the ozone layer
MP: to protect the ozone layer
In addition, the 4th preamble paragraph to the Montreal Protocol states
“Conscious of the potential climatic effects of emissions of these substances,”
Therefore climate change was considered
We probably all know that the primary objectives of the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol was to to protect the ozone layer, and specifically to protect human health and the environment against adverse effects resulting from modifications of the ozone layer. However, the negotiators of the protocol were also conscious of the potential benefits to the climate system.

3. A successful multilateral environmental agreement
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The Montreal Protocol
A successful multilateral environmental agreement
Phased-out over 95% of global consumption of ozone-depleting substances in just 20 years
Ozone layer on path to recover by mid-century
Averted many millions cases of cancer deaths and cataract cases
With time, the protocol has come to be considered one of the more successful multilateral environmental agreement, having phased-out over 95% of global consumption of ozone-depleting substances in just 20 years. As I will show in the coming slides, the ozone layer is on the path to recover by the middle of this century and many millions cases of cancer deaths and cataract cases were averted.

4. 31 March 2017
Global Annual Consumption: Parties had achieved an aggregate 96% reduction in all ODSs
From the latest data reported by all the Parties in 2006, the worldwide consumption and production of all ozone depleting substances has drastically diminished reducing by over 95% from the 1980’s levels. In developed countries consumption has dropped by more than 99 per cent of all ozone depleting substances with baseline

5. S. Montzka, NOAA/ESRL, 2006 31 March 2017
The 2006 Scientific Assessment Report provided new evidence that the stratospheric concentrations of ozone depleting substances continues to show a downward trend, demonstrating that over time, the ozone layer will heal This graph charts the decline in stratospheric levels of ozone-depleting substances, illustrating the success of the Montreal Protocol.
S. Montzka, NOAA/ESRL, 2006

6. Effects of the Montreal Protocol and Amendments: Averted many millions cases of cancer deaths and cataract cases
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Another important achievement of the Parties of the Protocol relates to the legal framework that has allowed the flexibility to strengthen the Protocol by accelerating the imposition of controls on ozone-depleting substances six times in response to critical scientific or technical information provided by the assessment Panels. This strengthening process has not only achieved the eventual total phase out of the controlled substances but also has averted , according to estimates, many millions of cancer deaths, perhaps hundreds of millions of cancer and cataracts cases, and certainly has averted the expenditure of corresponding millions of dollars to the national health organizations worldwide.

7. Parallels between the conventions and the protocols
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Parallels between the conventions and the protocols
The Vienna Convention adopted in 1985
The Montreal Protocol adopted in 1987
Entry into force in 1989
Amended 4 times: 1990, 1992, 1997 & 1999
Adjusted 6 times
96 substances controlled
191 Parties so far
The Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in 1992
The Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997
Entry into force in 2005
Amended once in 2006
Basket of 6 gases controlled
176 Parties so far
In this slide, I show some of similarities between the two regimes – Ozone Protections and Climate Change. As can be seen, the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol have a time lag of approximately 10 years when compared with the corresponding Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol. Thus it is reasonable to expect that the climate change regime can take advantage of the lessons from the Ozone regime.

8. Substance GWP ODP CFC-12 10,720 ± 3750 1 CFC-114 9880 3460 CFC-115
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Substance
GWP
ODP
CFC-12
10,720
3750 1
CFC-114
9880
3460
CFC-115
7250
2540
0.6
CFC-113
6030
2110
0.8
CFC-11
6800
1640
HCFC-142b
2270
800
0.065
HCFC-22
1780
620
0.055
HCFC-141b
713
250
0.11
Halon-1301
7030
2460 10
Halon-1211
1860
650 3
Halon-2402
1620
570 6
Carbon Tetrachloride
1380
480
1.1
Methyl Chloroform
144 50
0.1
Methyl Bromide 5 2
Another Linkage between Montreal Protocol and Climate Change is that many Substances controlled under the Montreal Protocol are also greenhouse gases as depicted in this table. Therefore reductions in emissions from substances controlled under the Protocol generated corresponding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions too.

9. 31 March 2017
Consumption under Montreal Protocol: Measured in equivalent GWP-tonnes of CO2 emissions – note the increasing significance of HCFCs
And this chart depicts the reduction in terms of equivalent global warming potential tonnes of gases controlled under the Montreal Protocol, and is an indication of reduction in possible emissions. You note the increasing significance of HCFCs as the other substances were phased out earlier.

10. Climate Benefits of Ozone Protection
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Climate Benefits of Ozone Protection
IPCC/TEAP Special Report on Ozone and Climate first highlighted the GWP-weighted emissions
December 2006: Velders, et al., The Importance of the Montreal Protocol in Protecting Climate
MP will reduce GHG emissions by 135 GtCO2-eq. between 1990 and 2010
This is delaying climate change by up to 12 years
If voluntary efforts & domestic measures from 1970s are taken into account, delay is up to 41 years
The IPCC/TEAP Special Report on Ozone and Climate first highlighted climate change benefits derived from the Montreal Protocol, and
Guus J.M. Velders, et al., in their article titledThe Importance of the Montreal Protocol in Protecting Climate, noted that the Montreal Protocol will reduce GHG emissions by 135 GtCO2-eq. between 1990 and 2010, thereby delaying climate change effects by up to 12 years. If the voluntary efforts and domestic measures from 1970s are taken into account, the delay comes up to 41 years

11. Velders, Andersen, Daniel, Fahey, & McFarland, PNAS, 2007
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This charts depicts the projections under various scenarios.
The red line is projected emissions of carbon dioxide through 2020.
The green line is the GWP-weighted emissions of ozone-depleting substances IF Molina and Rowland had never discovered the impact of CFCs on the ozone layer and the world had never taken any steps to phase-out ODSs. Under this scenario, the global warming potential from ODS emissions would be as great or greater than the warming potential of carbon dioxide by 2020.
The blue line is the GWP-weighted emissions of ODSs IF the Montreal Protocol had never entered into force. Under this scenario, the GWP of ODS emissions would be about half of the GWP of carbon dioxide emissions.
Velders, Andersen, Daniel, Fahey, & McFarland, PNAS, 2007

12. Triumph in Montreal 31 March 2017
This depicts the atmosphere in Montreal where the Parties to the Montreal Protocol took the deliberate decision to accelerate the control measures for HCFCs conscious of the benefits to both the ozone layer and climate change.

13. 31 March 2017
This graph shows the potential climate benefits of the accelerated HCFC phase-out. Maximizing the climate benefits of the HCFC phase-out depends on ensuring that HCFCs are replaced with zero and low GWP chemical substitutes and more energy efficient equipment.

14. Developing Countries HCFC Schedule
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Developing Countries HCFC Schedule
New Control Schedule
Old Control Schedule
2013: Freeze at average of levels
2015: 10% reduction
2020: 35% reduction
2025: 67.5% reduction
2030: 100% reduction while allowing 2.5% for refrigeration and A/C servicing until 2040. -
2016: Freeze at 2015 levels
2040: 100% reduction
This is a comparison between the previous and the accelerated HCFC control measures for developing countries. As you can see, the freeze date was brought forward by 3 years, but more importantly, intermediate reduction steps were introduced where there were previously none.

15. Article 5 HCFC Control Measures – Old vs New
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Article 5 HCFC Control Measures – Old vs New
This chart is a graphical representation of the previous slide.

16. 31 March 2017
Article 5 HCFC Consumption: Savings from the New HCFC Adjustments (assumes freeze at previous base level of 2015)
This chart shows the savings from the new adjustments, assuming previous the consumption growth would have been linear up to the freeze level.

17. Key Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment Decision
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Key Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment Decision
Paragraph 5 on financial and technical assistance:
“To agree that the funding available through the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of MP in the upcoming replenishments shall be stable and sufficient to meet all agreed incremental costs to enable A5 parties to comply with the accelerated phase-out schedule both for production and consumption sectors as set out above, and based on that understanding, to also direct the Executive Committee of Multilateral Fund to make the necessary changes to the eligibility criteria related to the post-1995 facilities and second conversions.”
And finally, a key success factor of the Montreal Protocol is the financial mechanism for developing nations. Therefore as part of the adjustment on HCFCs, the Parties also agreed to the availability of funding for incremental costs of developing nations.

18. Key Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment Decision
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Key Excerpts: HCFC Adjustment Decision
Paragraph 9 on climate change:
“To encourage Parties to promote the selection of alternatives to HCFCs that minimize environmental impacts, in particular impacts on climate, as well as meeting other health, safety and economic considerations.”
Paragraph 11 on climate change
“To … give priority to cost-effective projects and programmes which focus on … [s]ubstitutes and alternatives that minimize other impacts on the environment, including on the climate, taking into account global warming potential, energy use, and other relevant facts.”
And further within that agreement was the reference to climate change and the need to choose alternatives and substitutes with minimal effects on climate change.

19. GAZING INTO THE FUTURE
An agreement that is doing so much for ozone —and for climate— clearly deserves our attention. It has much to teach us. .