1. Agriculture in the UNFCCC COP 21 (Paris)
John Muldowney
Department of agriculture, food and the Marine
January 2016

2. GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts
GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.

3. Greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector (AR5)

4. Agriculture and climate nexus in a world wide context:
Agriculture and forestry serve multiple objectives; food production, bioenergy, materials
Agriculture will have to feed a growing and wealthier global population of nine billion people by 2050 will require a 60% increase in global food production (2013).
Agriculture and Forestry face many challenges
Degrading soils, extreme weather events..
Changes in yields and productivity leading to reduced GDP from agriculture and fluctuations of world market prices, increased risk of hunger…
Competition for land between activities
Competition for scarce water resources

5. UNFCCC
Climate Change is recognised as the greatest threat to the planet and the greatest challenge facing humanity
UNFCCC objective is to stabilise atmospheric GHG concentrations at a level that would avoid dangerous human interference with the climate system

6. UNFCCC Adopted in 1992, entered into force in 1994 195 Parties Bodies
SBI
SBSTA
Other temporary bodies
Agreements
Kyoto Protocol 1997, into force 2005, 192 Parties

7. Article 2 of the UNFCCC Convention
“The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”

8. Where do we stand in SBSTA?
4 Workshops in 2015 / 2016
(a) Development of early warning systems and contingency plans in relation to extreme weather events and its effects such as desertification, drought, floods, landslides, storm surge, soil erosion, and saline water intrusion;
(b) Assessment of risk and vulnerability of agricultural systems to different climate change scenarios at regional, national and local levels, including but not limited to pests and diseases;
(c) Identification of adaptation measures, taking into account the diversity of the agricultural systems, indigenous knowledge systems and the differences in scale as well as possible co-benefits and sharing experiences in research and development and on the ground activities, including socioeconomic, environmental and gender aspects;
(d) Identification and assessment of agricultural practices and technologies to enhance productivity in a sustainable manner, food security and resilience, considering the differences in agro-ecological zones and farming systems, such as different grassland and cropland practices and systems
9 submissions made :
New Zealand
Brazil
Uruguay
Africa Group (Sudan)
Republic of Korea
South Africa
USA
Chile EU
=> Highlighting mainly food production

9. Where do we stand in the Paris Agreement
Food Security, ending Hunger and Food Production
Preamble - ‘Recognizing the fundamental priority of safeguarding food security and ending hunger, and the particular vulnerabilities of food production systems to the adverse impacts of climate change,’
Article 2, 1c – ‘Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production;’
Ambition
Article 2, 1a – ‘Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;’

10. A historic Agreement
A new chapter in international climate governance and action
A win for multilateralism
A strong signal to policy makers, investors and businesses
Great example of EU unity and leadership

11. SHORT-LIVED CLIMATE POLLUTANTS ENERGY EFFICIENCY & ACCESS
The first major multilateral deal of the 21st century
Agreement
Decisions
Common ambition
Commitments for all
Solidarity package
Lima-Paris
Action
Agenda
FOREST
AGRICULTURE
RESILIENCE
TRANSPORT
BUILDING
PRIVATE FINANCE
SHORT-LIVED CLIMATE POLLUTANTS
RENEWABLE ENERGY
ENERGY EFFICIENCY & ACCESS
CITIES & SUBNATIONALS
BUSINESS
INNOVATION

12. Global goal Well below 2°C + Efforts to stay below 1.5°C
Ambition
Well below 2°C
+ Efforts to stay below 1.5°C
Pathway to low-emission future
Global peaking as soon as possible
Rapid reductions
Balance between emissions and sinks after based on science
Parties to formulate long-term (2050) low emissions strategies by 2020
Fair pathways: developing countries may peak later; equity, sustainable development, poverty eradication efforts recognised.
Global pathway means international transport is included
Fairness aspects

13. Successful INDC process before Paris
Ambition
Aggregate global emissions:
UNFCCC Synthesis report
UNEP Gap report
INDC more than numbers:
IEA World Energy Outlook: decoupling
MILES IDDRI report: air pollution, energy security benefits
Parties with INDCs covering periods up to 2030 invited to communicate or update by 2020, following a 2018 facilitative dialogue => INDCs from 187 Parties

14. Impact of INDCs on global emissions
Ambition
Source: EC-JRC

15. Main Elements of Paris Agreement
Commitments
Emissions reductions
Transparency & accountability
Global stocktake – 2018, 2023, 2028+
Solidarity
Finance
Adaptation
Loss & damage
Technology & Capacity Building
Pre-2020 action

16. The EU INDC Submitted on the 6th March 2015
An absolute emission reduction target of at least 40% versus 1990
The land use sector is included yet "How" still to be decided

17. EU Climate Policy in the short term: key policy instruments
GHG Target in 2020: -20% compared to 1990
-14% compared to 2005
EU Emissions Trading
System (ETS)
-21% compared to 2005
Non ETS sectors (transport, buildings, waste, agriculture)
-10% compared to 2005
CH4 and N2O from agriculture
included
CO2 from
LULUCF
NOT included
27 Member State targets
stretching from -20% to +20%

18. EU Climate Policy medium term: key policy instruments
GHG Target for 2030: -40% compared to 1990
EU Emissions Trading
System (ETS)
-43% compared to 2005
Non ETS sectors (transport, buildings, waste, agriculture)
-30% compared to 2005
CH4 and N2O from agriculture
included
Question over how to include CO2 from
LULUCF
28 Member State targets
stretching from 0% to -40%

19. EU Council Conclusions – Oct 2014
Paragraph 2.14
the multiple objectives of the agriculture and land use sector, with their lower mitigation potential....
.....to ensure coherence between the EU's food security and climate change objectives.
.....to examine the best means of encouraging the sustainable intensification of food production, while optimising the sector's contribution to greenhouse gas mitigation and sequestration, including through afforestation.
Policy on how to include.....
The agriculture sector is very important to the Irish economy as can be seen from the 2012 statistics.
These include:
8% of total employment
7.7% of GVA
10.8% of exports or €9BN in monetary terms
Significant economic, employment and rural development benefits continue to accrue to Ireland from the sector. These are set to expand further with
the continued rollout of Food Harvest 2020;
reform of the Common Agricultural Policy post 2013;
the lifting of milk quota restrictions in 2015; and
the opening of new markets.
However, we need to be resourceful both in retaining existing, and in opening new markets, and anything that can provide a competitive edge is to be grasped with both hands. The Sustainability and Carbon agendas are areas where Ireland can do well by building on natural advantages and agri-food strengths.

20. EU consultations on non-ETS sectors in the 2030 CEF
Launched 25/03/2015  for 12 weeks
Consultation on Effort Sharing proposal  in a 2030 perspective.
Consultation on the integration of agriculture, forestry and other land use into the 2030 EU CEF.
Workshop held 14&15th Sept 2015

21. Forestry Significant potential as a carbon sink
Forest sinks NOT included in the accounting period for the NETS
ARD included in Kyoto CP1 ( )
Estimated that between 2.5-3MtCO2e sequestered per annum over this period
New National Forestry Programme
€482m new investment; target 44,oooha afforestation by 2020
3.4 – 4.4 MtCO2e sequestered per annum over this period ARD
Gross demand to increase to 3.3 M m3 by 2020 on an all island basis

22. Policy framework must do three things:
Promote sustainable intensification of food production to reduce the carbon intensity of food production and to contribute to both food security and greenhouse gas mitigation objectives;
Encourage sustainable land management and forest product uses that contribute to climate change mitigation and retain and enhance soil and forest carbon stocks;
Seek to move as far along the road to carbon neutrality as is possible in cost-effective terms, while not compromising our capacity for sustainable food production.

23. Thank you!