1. COSMO Status Report 2002 – 2003 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR
Organizational Structure of COSMO
Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview
Operational Applications of the LM
Activities of the COSMO WGs
Future developments
EWGLAM 2003

2. Organizational Structure of COSMO
EWGLAM 2003

3. Organizational Structure of COSMO (2)
EWGLAM 2003

4. Internal Meetings (2002-2003) 2 Meeting of WPCs
WG1: September Latent Heat Nudging
WG2: September 2003
WG3: A workshop at DWD in the last week of July to work on convection
WG4: “COSMO-LEPS” meeting May 2003 Geneve
23 September 2003
WG5: May 2003 Geneve
WG6: Workshop on “Code Optimization and Portability“
MeteoSwiss, CSCS and DWD (a working group has been formed)
2 Meeting of WPCs
2 Meeting of the Steering Commitee
19/09/2018

5. COSMO Status Report 2002 – 2003 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR
Organizational Structure of COSMO
Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview
Operational Applications of the LM
Activities of the COSMO WGs
Future developments
EWGLAM 2003

6. Lokal-Modell (LM): Dynamics and Numerics
Basic equations:
nonhydrostatic, fully compressible primitive equations
no scale approximations, advection form
subtraction of a stratified dry base state at rest To(z),po(z))
Prognostic variables:
u,v,w, T, p’, qv, qc, qi, (etke, qr, qs)
Coordinates:
rotated geographical coordinates (λ,φ) and
a generalized terrain-following coordinate ς
EWGLAM 2003

7. Lokal-Modell (LM): Dynamics and Numerics
Grid structure:
- Arakawa C (horizontal)
- Lorenz vertical staggering
Time integration:
- Leapfrog (horizontally explicit, vertically implicit)
time-split integration including extension proposed
by Skamarock and Klemp 1992
Additional options for:
a two time-level Runge-Kutta split-explicit scheme
a three time level 3-D semi-implicit scheme
Numerical smoothing:
4th order linear horizontal diffusion with option for a monotonic
version including an orographic limiter;
Rayleigh-damping in upper layers;
3-d divergence damping and off-centering in split steps
EWGLAM 2003

8. Lokal-Modell : Physical parameterizations
Grid-scale Clouds and Precipitation:
- Cloud water condensation /evaporation by saturation adjustment.
- Cloud Ice scheme HYDCI (Doms,2002) further option;
prognostic rain and snow (Gassman,2002)
When IC/BCs are not exctrated from operational GME further options are:
- The previous HYDOR scheme: precipitation formation by a bulk parameterization including water vapour, cloud water, rain and snow (rain and snow treated diagnostically by assuming column equilibrium)
- a warm rain scheme following Kessler
Subgrid-scale Clouds:
- Subgrib-scale cloudiness based on relative humidity and height.
Moist Convection:
a) Mass-flux convection scheme (Tiedke) with closure based on moisture convergence. Further options:
- a modified closure based on CAPE within the Tiedke scheme
b) The Kain-Fritsch convection scheme
EWGLAM 2003

9. Lokal-Modell : Physical parameterizations
Radiation:
δ-two stream radiation scheme after Ritter and Geleyn (1992) for
short and longwave fluxes; full cloud-radiation feedback
Vertical Diffusion:
Diagnostic K-closure at hierarchy level 2 with Louis scheme for surface fluxes. Options: a new surface scheme including a laminar-turbulent roughness sublayer
Prognostic TKE-closure (level 2.5) effects of subgrid-scale condensation and evaporation are included and the impact from subgrid-scale thermal circulations is taken into account.
Soil Processes:
a) Two-layer soil model (Jacobsen and Heise, 1982) including snow and interception storage; climate values are prescribed as lower boundary conditions; Penman-Monteith plant transpitration.
b) New multi-layer soil model including melting and freezing.
EWGLAM 2003

10. Lokal-Modell (LM): Initial and Boundary Conditions
EWGLAM 2003

11. Lokal-Modell (LM): Code and Parallelization
EWGLAM 2003

12. COSMO Status Report 2002 – 2003 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR
Organizational Structure of COSMO
Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview
Operational Applications of the LM
Activities of the COSMO WGs
Future developments
EWGLAM 2003

13. Lokal-Modell (LM) : Operational implementations
EWGLAM 2003

14. EWGLAM 2003

15. COSMO Status Report 2002 – 2003 Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR
Organizational Structure of COSMO
Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview
Operational Applications of the LM
Activities of the COSMO WGs
Future developments
EWGLAM 2003

16. Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Data Assimilation
Operational implementation of the data-assimilation cycle in LAMI (the Italian application of LM)
Some tuning of the Nudging scheme
Development about assimilation of not-conventional data e.g.:
ground based GPS data ( sensitivity study in
COST 716 framework) (from LM_V3.3)
wind profiler data
latent heat nudging (radar reflectivity)
evaluation on TOVS retrievals (and their use)
assimilation of SATOB winds
Estimation of realistic soil moisture (ELDAS)
A lake temperature model has been developed and is under testing.
EWGLAM 2003

17. The Z_coordinate LM for high resolution applications
Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Numerics
The Z_coordinate LM for high resolution applications
The eulerian version is almost ready for test on real cases (Steppeler-Bitzer)
A physical interface has been implemented
SL-SI version developed and tested on ideal 2-D cases
Formulation of a dynamical Boundary Condition
Investigation and testing of RK schemes and high-order spatial discretization
Prognostic precipitation scheme: implemented for testing
EWGLAM 2003

18. Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Physical aspects
Planetary boundary layer
Documentation
tuning
higher vertical resolution of the lowest part of the boundary layer
Parameterisation of boundary layer clouds & sub-grid scale cloudiness
Implementation of 3D turbulence formulation (ongoing)
The Cloud Ice (Doms, 2002) now operational
KF scheme implemented (not yet optimized)
New convection scheme (Doms) theoretically developed
Prognostic precipitation scheme
New multi-layer soil model developed ( both for LM and GME)
Lake model (Mironov, 2003) developed
EWGLAM 2003

19. Ensemble Prediction Methods
Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Interpretation and Applicatios
Ensemble Prediction Methods
COSMO-LEPS (ARPA_SMR) test suite implemented at ECMWF; the system is running regularly on a daily basis.
Products are disseminated to COSMO Partners
Mars archiving is under development
Verification package is being developed
Data from COSMO partners will be collected for subjective
verification
Subjective verification by forecasters
SLEPS system implemented (Meteoswiss)
Statistical postprocessing by spatial and temporal aggregation
wavelet methos (Theis) implemented at Meteoswiss
EWGLAM 2003

20. Operational verification of surface parameters at all Met Services
Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Verification (WG5)
Operational verification of surface parameters at all Met Services
Operational verification of vertical profiles at Meteoswiss, DWD and UGM
Evaluation of various parallel suites at DWD, MeteoSwiss ,ARPA-SMR and UGM
High resolution verification using regional radar data and non-GTS data
Operational LM forecast maps, from the different COSMO countries, collected in the private COSMO WEB for subjective intercomparison
A list of selected case studies has been defined (joint workshop of WG4 and WG5) as sensitive cases for verification
EWGLAM 2003

21. Updates of programs and documentations
Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Operational implementation (1)
Updates of programs and documentations
Define the first Reference Version
The Reference Version is LM 3.1(GME2LM Version 1.17 as „official“ version)
Install test cases and produce „Reference Output“
test cases have been selected for which Reference Output is available
Code optimization and portability
A working group (DWD, MCH, CSCS) has been formed Guidelines for the work have been setup
Most important: Portable Optimization
Maintaining, updating (and mirroring) the COSMO Web Site
General information, collaborations, operational set-ups and model documentations
Newsletters, Technical Reports and other publications
Detailed work plans, operational maps, verification results (member area)
Update histories of the programs
EWGLAM 2003

22. Restructuring of Documentation Numerics and Dynamics
Progress report and research activities: October 2002-September 2003 LM Operational implementation (2)
Restructuring of Documentation
Numerics and Dynamics
Physical Parameterizations
Data Assimilation
Implementation Documentation
User Guide (but not web based)
(Web based) Quick Reference Guide
EWGLAM 2003

23. Planned developments for the LM NWP system
A general effort to improve the performance of the LM system at the meso-γ scale
Further improvements of non-conventional data assimilation
(radar: LHN, satellite (TOVS, MSG data) )
Evaluation/improvement of DWD soil moisture analysis
Prognostic precipitation scheme:
Optimizations in two-timelevel scheme
Prognostic precipitation also for 3-timelevel
EWGLAM 2003

24. Planned developments for the LM NWP system
The Z_coordinate LM for high resolution applications:
The SL-SI version will be completed and 3-d tests will be performed
The Z_coordinate system will be integrated in the LM library.
Tests on real cases
Restructuring of TKE-scheme
Further development of 2-timelevel scheme
3D Turbulence
EWGLAM 2003

25. Planned developments for the LM NWP system
Assessment of COSMO-LEPS performance through objective and
subjective evaluation
Improvement of LM verification system
high density observing network: non GTS data will be collected from COSMO partners and made available for the verification of the different LM suites and COSMO-LEPS
stronger feedback with forecasters
EWGLAM 2003

26. Planned developments for the LM NWP system (2)
Interpolation of IC/BCs
Toward INT2LM (GME2LM,IFS2LM,LM2LM)
Nesting version of LM
major revision required; under testing at HNMS and at ARPA Piedmonte
Further development and improvement of the COSMO-WEB site e.g.
Update histories of the programs and the operational setups
Description of the Working Groups regularly updated
Exchange of data
Better comparison of operational applications
The Grib code (clean implementation; external Grib table)
Towards ISO 9000: DWD is about to start with ISO activities
EWGLAM 2003

27. EWGLAM 2003

28. Z_coordinate LM – SI-SL
EWGLAM 2003

29. EWGLAM 2003

30. " The COSMO-LEPS (Lam EPS) system“
EWGLAM 2003

31. THE NEED: REGIONALISATION OF SCENARIOS (1)
Despite the recent increase of computer power resources, which has allowed the development of more and more sophisticated NWP models, the accurate forecast of extreme weather conditions, especially when related to intense and localised precipitation structures, is still difficult.
This limitation is due, among other reasons, to the inherent low degree of predictability associated to this kind of phenomena.
EWGLAM 2003

32. THE NEED: REGIONALISATION OF SCENARIOS (2)
Global-model ensemble systems have turned out to be important tools to tackle the predictability problem beyond day 2.
Probabilistic systems are usually run at a coarser resolution with respect to deterministic predictions.
Ensemble skill to forecast intense and localised events in the short and medium--range is still nowadays limited.
EWGLAM 2003

33. “late-short-range (>48h) - early-medium-range (120h)”.
THE LEPS APPROACH
The main purpose of the LEPS > COSMO-LEPS project is to introduce a probabilistic guidance to identify the possible occurrence of severe weather conditions in the time range
“late-short-range (>48h) - early-medium-range (120h)”.
By joining
the ability of a global-ensemble prediction system to generate a satisfying set of larger scale evolution scenarios (through a good sampling of initial conditions phase-space)
with
the capacity of LAM of detailing atmospheric phenomena on local scales, particularly in regions with complex orography
EWGLAM 2003

34. B.F. APPROACH One LAM integration for each global EPS member All the information from global EPS is used BUT Hard to be feasible on operational basis
THE LEPS APPROACH LAM is nested only in a limited number of members selected from global EPS “Some” of the information from global EPS is lost BUT Feasible on operational basis
EWGLAM 2003

35. LEPS – Limited area Ensemble Prediction System
Dim 2
Possible evolution scenarios
Dim 1
Initial conditions
EPS and ensemble size reduction
Cluster members chosen as representative members (RMs)
Dim 2
Initial conditions
Dim 1
LAM integrations driven by
RMs
LAM scenario
EWGLAM 2003

36. EWGLAM 2003

37. 3 global ensembles starting 5/6 days before the verification time
Methodology
Super ensemble:
3 global ensembles starting 5/6 days before the verification time
153 members (50 + 1)*3
Hierarchical Cluster Analysis
method: Complete Linkage
area: Southern Europe
fields: 4 variables at 4 levels (3D cluster)
number of clusters: fixed to 5
5 clusters
Representative Member Selection
one per cluster
base on the nearest (3D fields) to the mean of its own cluster AND the most distant to the other clusters’ means
5 representative members (RMs)
5 LM integrations nested on 5 RMs:
COSMO-LEPS - Limited-area (High Resolution) Ensemble Prediction System
EWGLAM 2003

38. EWGLAM 2003

39. EWGLAM 2003

40. LEPS VERIFICATION on the MAP SOP
Use of probabilistic (and deterministic) indices:
ROC Curve / ROC area
Brier Score and Brier Skill Score
Cost-Loss Analysis
Hypothesis testing by RESAMPLING
(HAMILL, Weather and Forecasting 1999)
EWGLAM 2003

41. LEPS – Limited area Ensemble Prediction System
precipitation scenarios
Dim 2
Initial conditions
Dim 1
LAM scenario
LAM scenario
PROBABILITY MAPS
LAM scenario
EWGLAM 2003

42. EWGLAM 2003

43. EWGLAM 2003

44. EWGLAM 2003

45. Verification domain and stations
EWGLAM 2003

46. EWGLAM 2003

47. EWGLAM 2003

48. EWGLAM 2003

49. EWGLAM 2003

50. LM: Changes in the last Year
EWGLAM 2003

51. Planned developments for the LM NWP system (3)
COSMO Software
Operational Software
β-Version Software
Software Tools for Exchange
EWGLAM 2003

52. Next Reference Version:
LM: Future Plans
Next Reference Version:
Adaptations for new multi-layer soil model
Update of Kain-Fritsch convection scheme
Optimizations in two-timelevel scheme and prognostic precipitation
Optimizations for the NEC
Possibility of using additional GRIB tables
More bug corrections
EWGLAM 2003

53. LM: Future Plans (cont.)
Optimization of MPE_IO
etc.
EWGLAM 2003

54. GME2LM: Changes in the last Year
EWGLAM 2003

55. Adaptations for multi-layer soil model
GME2LM: Future Plans
Adaptations for multi-layer soil model
Bug corrections and safety checks
etc.
EWGLAM 2003