1. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors
© Christina Lehmann 2014
Phase II
Systemic risk and vulnerability analysis
Step 10

2. Credits and conditions of use
© Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, 2014
The Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management strongly recommends that this presentation is given by experts familiar with the adaptive management process in general (especially as designed as the Conservation Measures Partnership’s Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation) as well as the MARISCO Method itself.
You are free to share this presentation and adapt it for your use under the following conditions:
You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the authors (but
not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work).
You may not use this work for commercial purposes.
If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you must remove the Centre for
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only under the same or similar conditions to this one.
This material was created under the leadership and responsibility of Prof. Dr. Pierre Ibisch and Dr. Peter Hobson, co-directors of the Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, which was jointly established by Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development and Writtle College. Compare: Ibisch, P.L. & P.R. Hobson (eds.) (2014): The MARISCO method: Adaptive MAnagement of vulnerability and RISk at COnservation sites. A guidebook for risk-robust, adaptive, and ecosystem-based conservation of biodiversity. Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management, Eberswalde (ISBN ). 195 pp. - The Powerpoint Presentation was conceived by Christina Lehmann and Pierre Ibisch. Authors of graphs and photographs are indicated on the corresponding slides. Supported by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ).
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

3. 10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

4. Learning objectives
Participants are able to explain the use of this step, including the sub-steps a) current criticality, b) past criticality and c) current trend of criticality, in getting an overview of the perceived importance of the single element to inform the prioritisation process.
Participants have the skills to guide through the rating process using the relevant criteria and are able to apply the calculation scheme for achieving the final result of the current criticality.
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

5. Outline What does assessing criticality mean?
Why assessing criticality ?
How do we assess criticality?
Practical Tips ?
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

6. What does assessing criticality mean?
Analysing the different levels of criticality an element (stress, threat, contributing factor) can have
Dimensions of space, severity and irreversibility are assessed
Taking past and possible future conditions as well as trend of change into consideration
Example of the medical doctor and his patient:
How many parts of the body are affected?
Will the consequences change/ disturb
his way of life and always be visible?
Will the patient’s situation ever get better?
How were his conditions in the past
and are they currently changing?
© Christina Lehmann 2015
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

7. Why assessing criticality?
To receive a subjective rating and thus an overview of the perceived situation of a biodiversity object by the participants
Taking past conditions into account in order to recognise (subtle) changes
Possibility to make assumptions about future developments based on first-hand experiences
Finding targets for final prioritisation process for strategy development
© Christoph Nowicki 2014
© Pierre Ibisch 2014
© Pierre Ibisch 2014
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

8. How do we assess criticality?
Approach stresses, threats and contributing factors of conceptual model again
Each element is to be rated according to its perceived criticality
→ provision of best-fit judgement on
the status of a biodiversity object
Can be done by the core planning team; results are later validated by other experts
Single workshop or series of workshops
© Christina Lehmann 2014
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

9. How do we assess criticality?
a) Current criticality
Evaluation according to 3 descriptors:
Scope
Severity
Irreversibility/ permanence
4 colour-coded rating levels
Rating scheme to be printed and put up as poster visible for participants
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

10. How do we assess criticality?
Recording the results on MARISCO cards as well as in an Excel spreadsheet for further analysis (recommended)
Stress/
Threat/
Contributing factor
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

11. How do we assess criticality?
© Christoph Nowicki 2014
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

12. How do we assess criticality?
Rating categories for “Current criticality: scope”
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

13. How do we assess criticality?
Rating categories for “Current criticality: severity”
Rating categories for “Current criticality: irreversibility”
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

14. How do we assess criticality?
Overall criticality is calculated as a combination of all 3 criteria
Step 1:
Calculating Magnitude as a combination of scope and severity
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

15. How do we assess criticality?
Step 2:
Calculating the overall criticality as a combination of magnitude and irreversibility
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

16. How do we assess criticality?
In case of insufficient time and resources an “override” assessment instead of a full one is possible:
Rating categories for “Current criticality” in override assessment
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

17. How do we assess criticality?
b) Past criticality
Comparison of current situation of every stress/ threat/ contributing factor to the situation 20 years ago
Revive received wisdom (of participants) and avoid for it to be lost
→ Avoiding “shifting baseline syndrome” (when people get accustomed to a certain condition that used to be different and changed over time and the new situation is accepted as normal)
→ Often happens when there is a shift in generations
Back
then…
© Christina Lehmann 2014
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

18. How do we assess criticality?
Guiding questions for determination of past criticality
Did the element actually exist 20 years ago?
If so, how has the criticality changed since then (especially in terms of scope and severity)?
Rating categories for “Past criticality”
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

19. How do we assess criticality?
c) Current trend of change
Considering dynamic behaviour or current trend of change of a biodiversity object
Guiding questions for the determination of the current trend of change:
How is the situation of the stress/ threat/ contributing factor changing at this very moment? Is it receiving a lot of public attention? Why?
Is the stress/ threat/ contributing factor currently increasing or decreasing? Slowly, and gradually, or exponentially?
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

20. How do we assess criticality?
Rating categories for “Current trend of criticality change”
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

21. How do we assess criticality?
Criticality – scope
Criticality – severity
Criticality – irreversibility
Past criticality (20 years ago)
Current criticality (>1&2&3)
Trend of change (of current criticality)
© Christoph Nowicki 2014
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors

22. Practical Tips
The assessment will trigger many discussions and the uttering of different opinions
→ Splitting the participants into several groups who work on elements of different categories separately, might be helpful and time-saving
→ Doing a few exemplary assessments together is necessary as an introduction
© Pierre Ibisch 2014
10. Assess criticality of stresses, threats and contributing factors