1. World Population Trends

2. Population Rates of Change
It took thousands of years for the population of the planet to reach 1 billion
(1830s)
It took only 100 years to reach 2 billion
It took 30 years to reach 3 billion
It took 12.5 years to reach 4 billion
Now, world population rates are declining

3. Why are rates declining?
Women having fewer children
Population is aging
This is the trend in both the developed world (North America, Europe, Japan, Australia, new Zealand), and the developing world

4. Effects on the developed world:
fewer and fewer people to pay for the increasing pension and health care needs of the aging population
slower economic growth over the next 50 years

5. The Developing World:
Ninety-five percent of the world’s population growth is happening in these countries
About half of the population is under the age of 15
There is little health care and education
There is more access to birth control and women are assuming more power = smaller families

6. Fertility Rates (Children per Family) World Statistics
Map Key
Color
Fertility rate
Long-term impact
Red
less than 2
declining population
Yellow
about 2
stable population
Green
3 to 4
growing population
Blue
4 or more
rapidly growing population
Gray
data not available

7. Trends in Developed Nations
The only country that is replacing itself through high immigration and fertility is the US
Japan and many European countries will have to allow in a large number of immigrants to keep their population constant
In Germany, Italy, Sweden, deaths now outnumber births

8. The Story in Canada
The fertility rate is expected to drop from 1.54 to 1.48 births per woman in the next five years
Only the Northwest Territories and Nunavut show birth rates above the replacement level

9. Should Wealthy Nations Open Their Doors to Those From Poor Nations to Help Eliminate Economic Inequality In The World?
Read the case study on page 177 and answer questions 1 and 2 on page 178

10. What is per capita income
What is per capita income? How can the fertility rate of a country affect its per capita income?
2. In two columns generate a list of arguments in support of and against the idea that wealthy nations should accept more immigrants from poor nations

11. Why has there been such a change in fertility rates around the world?
These factors can be explored in two broad categories:
A. physical and environmental factors
and
B. socio-cultural factors

12. Physical and Environmental Factors and Fertility
Infertility = when couples cannot conceive after trying for one year
In Canada 1 in 5 couples are infertile
WHY?

13. Why are people more infertile?
rapid spread of STDs, especially chlamydia
decline in sperm counts in men (developed countries): half of what they were 6 years ago, declining 2% per year
-high levels of estrogen in water, from oral
contraceptives finding their way into the
water
-by-products of chemicals in food packaging
and plastics mimic the action of female sex
hormones, raising the level of estrogen in
men

14. women are delaying motherhood
-more than 1/3 of all babies born in
Canada today are born to women in
their thirties
-women’s fertility rates decline with age -late motherhood means fewer
reproductive years

15. Section 6.2 The Relationship Between Fecundity and Culture
Fecundity = the ability to reproduce
The ability to have a child is determined by physical and environmental factors.
Social and Cultural factors influence:
-the desire to have a baby
-the number of children desired
-the way of giving birth
-ideas about child raising

16. Fertility and Cultural Norms
Understanding the causes of fertility vary from culture to culture:
Use of proximate determinants = biological and behavioural factors through which social, economic, and environmental variables affect fertility
If a proximate determinant changes (ie. contraceptive use) then fertility changes too

17. John Bongaarts and Robert Potter: Analysis of Proximate Determinants
They compared the cultural norms of:
Developed societies
Developing societies
Hutterites.

18. Hutterites:
-highest fertility rates
-members of an Anabaptist sect in the northern United States and Canada
-they live in small self-contained communities with strict social and religious control

19. Bongaarts and Potter’s findings
Western World
Developing World
Hutterites
Fertility rates
Declining
Declining, but not as dramatically
Highest fertility rate of any population
# children 2 7
? (Higher than 7)
Marriage (women)
Early 20s
Teens
First child
Years 3
After
marriage
Birth interval
2-3
Breast-feeding
-not everyone
-short period
Prolonged more frequent breast feeding
Short period of breastfeeding
End of fertility
Contraception/surgery
Breastfeeding and menopause
Ban on contraception

20. Bongarrts and Potter’s Conclusions
Cultural norms are affected by:
-age of first menstruation
-age at marriage
-frequency of intercourse
-length of breast-feeding
-use and effectiveness of contraception
-onset of permanent sterility

21. Links Between Breast-feeding and Fecundity
Developed World:
-we are expected to be independent
-babies sleep alone
-play alone a lot
-breast-fed for only a few months
-many people only get six-eight weeks
maternity leave in the US

22. Breastfeeding facts:
-breast milk is perfectly designed for
babies, and is the best thing for them
-70% of Canadian women initiate breast-
feeding
-40% stop after three months
-rates are higher among older and higher
educated and paid mothers
-work is the main reason for stopping
-Ontario: January 2001 maternity leave 12
months

23. How does breast-feeding affect fecundity?
When done “on demand”, breast-feeding has a contraceptive effect as the Prolactin produced reduces ovulation
Developing countries: “on demand” feeding, and weaning done between 2 ½ and 4 years = births spaced every 4 to 5 years
U.S.: low breast-feeding rates, and successive births in quick succession

24. Recommendations:
-In Canada: nurse exclusively for the first four months, then with other foods for 2 years+
-World Health Organization: nurse exclusively for six months, then up to 2 years+

25. 45 (breastfeeding on demand)
Age of Menarche
Foraging Societies
Developed Countries
Less protein, more
low-calorie proteins, with no dairy products or processed grains
Food
High fat, high protein, high calorie diet
Lots of walking carrying heavy loads
Exercise
Little physical stress from exercise etc.
16-18 years
Menarche
12-13
45 (breastfeeding on demand)
Menopause
50-55
150
Ovulations
450
Delayed
Successive births delayed
Children
First child’s birth delayed,
Successive births shortly after

26. Influence of Age at Marriage
The younger one marries, the more fertile years during which to produce children
Therefore, if the average age of marriage in a country increases, the fertility rate may decrease

27. Government Intervention in Fertility
Cultural norms related to fertility are not only shaped by parents and family, they can also be moulded by government policies and programs
Examples:
Russia: banning abortion, taxing the childless
China: one-couple, one-child policy
Quebec: cash bonus for children (dropped)
Family planning programs: Canada, Bangladesh

28. Marriage and Family Trends in Different Cultures
Overt = open attitudes/influences
Covert = implied attitudes/influences
Read the case study on page and answer the questions at the end.

29. Re-cap Section 6.1: world population is declining
in Canada only the NWT and Nunavut show birth rates above the replacement level
a couple is considered infertile after a year of unsuccessfully trying to conceive
physical and environmental factors, and socio-cultural factors contribute to infertility
Delaying childbirth may not be a good idea

30. Re-Cap
Section 6.2
Proximate determinants of fertility are the biological and behavioural factors through which social, economic, and environmental variables affect fertility
Diet, amount of exercise, and the length and frequency of breast feeding affect fecundity
age of marriage, government intervention, and family trends affect fertility rates
Culture influences fertility and fecundity