1. Mapping Climate Risks in an Interconnected System
IAIA Conference, April 7, 2017
Mapping Climate Risks in an Interconnected System

2. Sudbury, Northern Ontario
Site Description
Sudbury, Northern Ontario
Impact Crater
Sainte Anne Des Pins

3. Interconnected Tailings Ponds Pumping and Spillways Local Water Use
Site Description
Mine and Smelter Site
Interconnected Tailings Ponds
Pumping and Spillways
Local Water Use
Treatment before Final Discharge

4. Existing Water Balance
Daily Water Management Model
Includes runoff, ponds, flows, water use, and discharge
Calibrated to historic data

5. Existing Water Balance
Added Synthetic Climate Generator
Statistics from historical climate used to generate multiple realizations of potential “next year” climates

6. Existing Water Balance
Not a prediction for next 1,000 years, but 1,000 possibilities for next year
The result from the climate generator is a daily estimate for temperature and precipitation, with the same annual, monthly, and daily variation that one might expect in historic records
The results in this case for Sudbury show the same temperature and precipitations patterns that have been observed, including extreme events
The model was further extended to include elements that could be estimated from temperature and precipitation, including evaporation, winter snowpack, and snowmelt events
The generator has the ability to produce a record of any length
Multiple realizations or model runs increase the likelihood of defining extreme events
The results are not predictions, but are rather of possibilities
September 19, 2018

7. Existing Water Balance
Tool used to assess impact of capital expenditures

8. Accounting for Climate Change
Need to include climate change in long-term capital planning
Tool realizations offers potential for risk assessment

9. Accounting for Climate Change
Monthly/Annual precipitation and temperature from GCMs
Daily rainfall distributions from literature & discussions
Change in statistics from historical trends

10. Accounting for Climate Change
“+30% Conditions”
> Chance of Rain
“Low GCM Conditions”
Hot and Dry
“Average Conditions”
“High GCM Conditions”
Cold and Wet
“-30% Conditions”
< Chance of Rain

11. 40 years of Daily Data x 1,000 Realizations…
Modelling
40 years of Daily Data x 1,000 Realizations…

12. Results suggest decrease in both high water and low water values
Higher water levels seen from smaller/frequent rain rather than larger/extreme

13. Results
Generally less water discharging, except for High GCM (cold and wet) conditions
Site-specific ratio of pond area and catchments leads to more evaporation

14. Results

15. GCM results can be used in climate generator
Conclusions
GCM results can be used in climate generator
Large number of synthetic records provide thorough evaluation of complex models
Tool allows quantitative evaluation of capital expenditures