1. Improving Employment Outcomes for Disadvantaged Groups: The Irish Context
Philip J. O’Connell
Pobal Conference: Creating an Inclusive Labour Market
9th November, 2016, Dublin City University

2. Outline Major trends in the labour market Pathways to Work 2016-20
Long and very-long term unemployment
The collapse of the labour market for young people
The growing importance of education
Pathways to Work
Expanding scope and coverage
Challenges for social inclusion

3. Total and long-term unemployment rates - Total unemployment up to 15% in 2012, below 8% in Sept Long-term unemployment 63% in 2012, now about 50%

4. Long-term unemployed JobSeekers (JB+JA) on Live Register As unemployment falls, alarming growth of unemployed >3 yrs

5. Survival rates on the Live Register - Only about 25% of those unemployed for up to 6 months are still unemployed 6 months later – down from 39% in 2009

6. Survival rates on the Live Register - about 55% of those already LTU (1-2 yrs) still unemployed 1 yr later - about 2/3 of those unemployed for 2+ yrs still unemployed 1 yr later

7. Trends in Unemployment
Total unemployment has fallen
LTU has fallen
Very LTU has increased, now beginning to fall
Less than half of LTU escape unemployment
About 40% of exits are to jobs
Some indication that activation is reducing long-term unemployment
Recovery has seen the growth of a substantial group with multiple disadvantages who stay unemployed for very long period

8. Employment 2007, 2012, 2015
2007
2012
2015
Employment (000)
15-24 years
333
154
148
-54%
-4%
25 years and over
1,823
1,695
1,786
-7%
+8%
All
2,156
1,849
1,939
-14%
+7%
Youth share (%)
16% 8%
Employment rate (%)
50%
28%
29%
-44%
+1%
69%
59%
64%
Total employment fell by 14%, then grew by 7%
Youth employment contracted by 54% during crisis and continued to fall during recovery

9. Unemployment by Age Group, Q Under 25s have very high unemployment rates, but account for just 20% of total unemployment – 70% of unemployed are aged Number Unemployment rate (%)

10. Employment by Education - Number employed with lower 2nd education or less down by half - Employment of graduates and post 2nd education expanded through crisis and recovery
2007
2012
2015
000s
% change
Lower Secondary
482
259
251
-46 -3
Upper Secondary
583
449
463
-23 3
Post Leaving Cert
222
233
236 5 1
Third Level
745
823
907 11 10
All
2109
1800
1919
-15 7

11. Unemployment rates remain high for those with Lower 2nd or less Post-leaving cert level education had higher unemployment than Leaving cert during crisis Are PLC qualifications meeting labour market needs?

12. The impact of trends in demand for education and skills
Declining demand for low qualificatons
Unlikely to replicate the last cycle with expansion at top and bottom of occupational structure
Need to invest in skills of poorly qualified

13. PtW 2016: 6 Strands
Enhanced engagement with unemployed people of working age
Increase the employment focus of activation programmes and opportunities
Make work pay – Incentivise the take-up of opportunities
Incentivise employers to offer jobs and opportunities to unemployed people
Build organisation capability to deliver high quality services to unemployed people
Build workforce skills

14. 2 Key Elements in PtW 2016 Consolidation Development
Continued focus on LTU and young, 2016/7
High-quality, effective, efficient sustainable PES
Development
Expand activation services to other non-employed of working age as economy moves closer to full employment

15. Development: expansion of activation services:
PtW identifies:
Qualified adult dependants of DSP clients,
Part-time workers,
Unemployed but not in receipt of welfare payment,
People with a disability,
Homemakers and carers
Students
Still rationing services
Some targets for social inclusion:
Lone parents with young children
People with disability
Young and old
Travellers and non-Irish nationals
Ex-offenders

16. Tensions in a more inclusive approach
Targeting vs right of access to services
Scarce resources should help those most in need /can benefit
Need to promote socially inclusive labour market
Efficiency vs equity
Clear identification of objectives
Take account of full costs and economic and social benefits
Activation vs support
Balance between conditionality and avoiding poverty
Work 1st vs train 1st
Should be driven by client needs rather than macro-economic conditions

17. Expansion of reach of PtW
Challenges
Research shows that activation is most effective for those who are ‘job-ready’
The expanded PtW target group is very heterogeneous
We know little about what measures are most likely to work
PES needs to learn from of NGOs, community and local development organisations
Culture of active inclusion and equality
Capacity, resources and skills to constructively and effectively engage
International experience
e.g. affordable childcare for lone parents
Need for realism

18. Further development of services for un/non-employed
Activation measures need to take account of greater diversity of skills, experiences and motivations of jobseekers
Develop DSP capacity and skills in ‘back to work’ counselling
ALMPs should be effective stepping stones to decent sustainable jobs
PES/DSP/SOLAS/ETBs need to deliver effective education, training, work experience and career guidance – rebalance ALMPs
Replace JobBridge with work experience programme that meets needs of jobseekers and employers
JobPath
Ensure coordination with PES, training etc
Provide supports for those with multiple disadvantages
Monitor and evaluate
Continuing supports for those who have found work

19. Conclusion
As unemployment falls it becomes necessary and possible to adopt more inclusive client-centred investment in employability of all with capacity and desire to work
Opportunity to develop world-class employment service
Prevent long-term unemployment and underemployment
Match employment goals of job seekers with needs of employers
Build workforce skills for good quality productive employment

20. Appendix Unemployment 2007, 2012, 2014
2104
Unemployment (000)
15-24 years 31 59 39
90%
-34%
25 years and over 74
236
175
221%
-26%
All
105
295
215
181%
-28%
Youth share (%)
30%
20%
18%
Unemployment rate (%) 9%
28%
226%
-27% 5%
14%
10%
198%
Unemployment increased by 180%, then fell by 28%
Adult unemployment increased by 221%, then fell by 26%
Youth unemployment increased by 90%, then fell by 34%
Youth labour force participation fell from 55% in 2007 to 37% in 2014