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ROD'S WINTER FORECAST Rod's Winter Outlook 1 1

Published byAnna Havlíčková Modified over 6 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "ROD'S WINTER FORECAST Rod's Winter Outlook 1 1"— Presentation transcript:

1 ROD'S 2017-2018 WINTER FORECAST Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Outlook 1 1
9/19/2018 ROD'S WINTER FORECAST Rod's Winter Outlook 1 1

2 9/19/2018 Why? Rod's Winter Outlook 2 2 2

3 Seasonal Forecast Skill
9/19/2018 Seasonal Forecast Skill 3 Choices Below Normal Normal Above Normal 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% Rod's Winter Outlook 3 3 3

4 Rod's Report Card 2016-2017 Winter Forecast
9/19/2018 Rod's Report Card Winter Forecast Valley Snow 5-6 inches, plus a good chance of one big event P Above normal rain fall but no mention of a crazy inches X Slightly above normal temperatures X Mt. Hood snow year 75% or better P Rod's Winter Outlook 4 4

5 Rod's Report Card Seasonal Forecast 2001-2016 Accuracy 66%
9/19/2018 Rod's Report Card Seasonal Forecast Accuracy 66% Industry Standard 55% Rod's Winter Outlook 5 5 5

6 Day One on the Job 25+ Hours Researching Trends Crunching Numbers
9/19/2018 Day One on the Job 25+ Hours Researching Trends Crunching Numbers Creating Data Sets Rod's Winter Outlook 6 6 6

7 WHERE I BEGIN Neutral Conditions, into a Weak or Moderate La Nina
9/19/2018 WHERE I BEGIN Neutral Conditions, into a Weak or Moderate La Nina Often Unpredictable Cool and Wet Rod's Winter Outlook 7 7 7

8 Precipitation Outlook
9/19/2018 Nov Dec Jan Outlook Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook Rod's Winter Outlook 8 8 8

9 EXAMINE SIMILAR YEARS Enso Cycles Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Outlook 9 9 9
9/19/2018 EXAMINE SIMILAR YEARS Enso Cycles Rod's Winter Outlook 9 9 9

10 LOOK AT RECENT PATTERNS
9/19/2018 LOOK AT RECENT PATTERNS Hot Summers, 2017 – 24, 90 degree days Big Water Years: ” Good Snow Seasons: Jan. Storm 8-15” Rod's Winter Outlook 10 10 10

11 January 2017 Snowstorm Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Outlook 11 11 11
9/19/2018 January 2017 Snowstorm Rod's Winter Outlook 11 11 11

12 Following Top Five Hot Summers (# of 90° Days)
9/19/2018 Following Top Five Hot Summers (# of 90° Days) No La Nina Winters, Weak or Strong Three out of Five - Dry Winter Seasons Average Water Year: inches Odds favor 32 inches (4” below normal) Rod's Winter Outlook 12 12 12

13 Analog Precip Average: 39.24”
9/19/2018 Rod’s Analog Years n | n | n –c | –c | n | n Analog Precip Average: 39.24” Best Chance by 43% : 30.10” Rod's Winter Outlook 13 13 13

14 Morning of January 11th Camas Meadows Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Outlook
9/19/2018 Morning of January 11th Camas Meadows Rod's Winter Outlook 14 14 14

15 Valley Snow – 3 Possibilities
9/19/2018 Valley Snow – 3 Possibilities Neutral Season Best Odds 30% - 8 inches or more 43% 0-2 inches Weak La Nina Moderate La Nina 50/50 Big Season or Small Season Rod's Winter Outlook 15 15 15

16 What to Expect Research shows a quiet winter season?
9/19/2018 What to Expect Research shows a quiet winter season? Below normal rainfall? Not much valley snow? Rod's Winter Outlook 16 16 16

17 Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Outlook Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Outlook 17 17 17
9/19/2018 Rod's Winter Outlook Rod's Winter Outlook 17 17 17

18 Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Outlook Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Outlook 18 18 18
9/19/2018 Rod's Winter Outlook Rod's Winter Outlook 18 18 18

19 Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Forecast Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Outlook 19 19
9/19/2018 Rod's Winter Forecast Rod's Winter Outlook 19 19 19

20 Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Forecast Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Outlook 20 20
9/19/2018 Rod's Winter Forecast Rod's Winter Outlook 20 20 20

21 Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Forecast Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Outlook 21 21
9/19/2018 Rod's Winter Forecast Rod's Winter Outlook 21 21 21

22 Waiting and Watching… Rod's 2017-2018 Winter Outlook 22 22 22
9/19/2018 Waiting and Watching… Rod's Winter Outlook 22 22 22

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