1. Some History of Energy and Emissions
Michael Grubb
Professor of International Energy and Climate Change Policy, UCL
Editor-in-Chief, Climate Policy journal
Keynote Presentation to international conference
Our Common Future under Climate Change, Paris, 7 July 2015
Key points
Energy-economy relationships in basic economic development
Patterns? - centrality of structural change
Projections? - history of forecasting errors
The bill? - relative constancy of national energy expenditures
Shares, shocks and shifts – emission trends and territory, from last 50 to last 5 years

2. Vast majority of emissions from countries now > $10,000/cap;
Energy-GDP relationship: the Common Caricature
Many fascinating studies of energy-in-development patterns eg. Fouquet, Grubler, Smil
Vast majority of emissions from countries now > $10,000/cap;
developed econs > $30,000
Across time and countries, basic industrialisation is energy-intensive;
historically aggregated income – energy relationships often assumed to extend - falling energy costs important feature of initial ‘industrial revolution’ - but global emissions dominated by modern economies > $10,000/cap
Sectoral and national developmental patterns suggest a different picture ….

3. “From Production …. …. to Pleasure”
‘The Pattern’ - profound structural changes with development
Industry rises to dominate over the agricultural and domestic needs of subsistence economies
By c. $10,000 per capita: relative industrial decline, growth in transport & services
“From Production ….
…. to Pleasure”
Source: A. Schafer, Structural change in energy use, Energy Policy, Volume 33, Issue 4, Pages 429–43

4. ‘The Projections?’ Very poor record in energy / emissions forecasting, particularly as countries move beyond basic industrialisation
US: energy consumption in turned out to be below the low end of all mid-70s forecasts
UK: “Against projected 30% increase in UK GHG emissions over the next decade … demanding ambition to return emissions in 2000 to 1990 levels” - Mrs Thatcher, 1990
Source: A. Schafer, Structural change in energy use, Energy Policy, Volume 33, Issue 4, March 2005, Pages 429–43

5. ‘The Bill’? At least amongst industrialised countries, long-run energy expenditure / GDP quite constant despite wide price variations
Eg. Japan spent the same %GDP on energy as the US despite end-user prices being more than twice as high; so did France and Germany.
Countries that subsidised energy to keep it cheap have ended up spending more.
Source: Grubb et al., Planetary Economics, Figure 6.1 derived from Newbery
Figure 6‑1 The most important diagram in energy economics
Note: The graph plots average energy intensity against average energy prices ( ) for a range of prices.
The dotted line shows the line of constant energy expenditure (intensity x price) per unit GDP over the period
Source: After Newbery (2003), with updated data from International Energy Agency and EU KLEMS

6. ‘The Shares’ - IPCC AR5 Illustrated the rapid rise of CO2 from Upper-Middle income countries (particularly China), but partly due to ‘embodied’ trade
High-income regions generally net importers, footprint significant growth
Upper-middle and lower income regions in general growing “embodied” exports to high income countries

7. US ‘The shocks and shifts’, Part 1: OECD per-cap emissions vs wealth,
through oil & financial shocks (1960 – 2014)
1973
1990
2008
2014
1960 US
tCO2 / capita
Trends in per-capita GDP and E-CO2 of different regions up to 2014, territorial (from 1960) and consumption footprint (from 1970)
Territorial CO2
Consumption CO2 footprint
GDP (constant 2005 US$000 PPP) / capita
Mean of four major international Multi-Regional Input-Output models, as convened and analysed by EU FP7 Carbon Cap consortium, with particular thanks to NTNU and TNO.

8. US ‘The shocks and shifts’, Part 1: OECD per-cap emissions vs wealth,
through oil & financial shocks (1960 – 2014)
1973
1990
2008 US
1960
tCO2 / capita
Trends in per-capita GDP and E-CO2 of different regions up to 2014, territorial (from 1960) and consumption footprint (from 1970)
Territorial CO2
Consumption CO2 footprint
GDP (constant 2005 US$000 PPP) / capita
Mean of four major international Multi-Regional Input-Output models, as convened and analysed by EU FP7 Carbon Cap consortium, with particular thanks to NTNU and TNO.

9. US ‘The shocks and shifts’, Part 1: OECD per-cap emissions vs wealth,
through oil & financial shocks (1960 – 2014)
1973
1990
2008 US
1960
tCO2 / capita
Territorial CO2
Consumption CO2 footprint
GDP (constant 2005 US$000 PPP) / capita
Mean of four major international Multi-Regional Input-Output models, as convened and analysed by EU FP7 Carbon Cap consortium, with particular thanks to NTNU and TNO.

10. US ‘The shocks and shifts’, Part 1: OECD per-cap emissions vs wealth,
through oil & financial shocks (1960 – 2014)
1973
1990
2008 US
1960
Canada
tCO2 / capita
Trends in per-capita GDP and E-CO2 of different regions up to 2014, territorial (from 1960) and consumption footprint (from 1970)
Territorial CO2
Consumption CO2 footprint
GDP (constant 2005 US$000 PPP) / capita
Mean of four major international Multi-Regional Input-Output models, as convened and analysed by EU FP7 Carbon Cap consortium, with particular thanks to NTNU and TNO.

11. ‘The shocks and shifts’, Part 1: OECD per-cap emissions vs wealth,
through oil & financial shocks (1960 – 2014)
1973
1990
2008 US
1960
Canada
tCO2 / capita
1973
OECD territorial p.c. emissions now back to level of 1960s; consumption emissions c 10% below 2008 peak
2008
1990
1960
EU-15
Japan
Territorial CO2
Consumption CO2 footprint
GDP (constant 2005 US$000 PPP) / capita
Mean of four major international Multi-Regional Input-Output models, as convened and analysed by EU FP7 Carbon Cap consortium, with particular thanks to NTNU and TNO.

12. ‘The shocks and shifts’, Part 2: Some advanced emerging economies have so far kept emissions to a small fraction (2-4 tCO2/cap) of historical antecedants
1973
1990
2008 US
1960
Canada
tCO2 / capita
2008
1990
EU-15
1990
Mexico
2014
Brazil
1990
Territorial CO2
Consumption CO2 footprint
GDP (constant 2005 US$000 PPP) / capita
Mean of four major international Multi-Regional Input-Output models, as convened and analysed by EU FP7 Carbon Cap consortium, with particular thanks to NTNU and TNO.

13. ‘The shocks and shifts’, Part 3: Asian giants so far closer to the ‘old course’
1973
1990
2008 US
1960
Canada
tCO2 / capita
2008
1990
EU-15
2014
China territorial per-cap equals EU-15, of
today and 1960!
China
1990
Mexico
India
Brazil
1990
Territorial CO2
Consumption CO2 footprint
GDP (constant 2005 US$000 PPP) / capita
Mean of four major international Multi-Regional Input-Output models, as convened and analysed by EU FP7 Carbon Cap consortium, with particular thanks to NTNU and TNO.

14. Some History of Energy and Emissions: conclusions
Key points
Energy-economy relationships…
Energy essential to basic economic development
Patterns?
‘Production to pleasure’ phase shift around $10,000/cap with trend breaks
Projections?
A history of forecasting errors
The Bill?
Relative constancy of national energy expenditures / GDP
Shares, shocks and shifts – some determining questions
Will rich countries accelerate decarbonisation as part of recovery from recession?
Can ‘advanced emerging’ economies maintain rapid development within 2-4 tCO2/cap?
With China entering ‘industrial maturation’ can it make an early turn towards decarbonization
– and which path will India chart?
Michael Grubb
Professor of International Energy and Climate Change Policy, UCL
Editor-in-Chief, Climate Policy journal