1. Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern and Central African Region
April 2014
Agenda
April 17, 2014
Co-Chair: IGAD & FAO
09:30-10:30
Situation Analysis & Outlook:
Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, climate, nutrition &  refugees
Highlights of the short Rains Assessment – Kenya NDMA
FAO,  WFP,  UNHCR, FEWSNET, ICPAC, ACF, JRC, IPC, UNICEF
10:30 -11:30
Presentation: 
The IGAD Summit Highlights – Commitments and Implication to Regional Food Security
Next FSNWG Meeting: 15th May 2014
IGAD

2. Current Conditions: Regional Highlights
April 2014
COUNTRY SOURCE VALIDITY
Burundi FEWSNET March 2014
Central Africa Republic GTT Nov-Dec 2013
Democratic Republic of Congo GTT Dec Jun 2014
Djibouti FEWSNET March 2014
Eritrea N/A N/A
Ethiopia FEWSNET March 2014
Kenya FEWSNET March 2014
Rwanda FEWSNET March 2014
Somalia FSNAU Feb-Jun 2014
South Sudan FS Cluster Jan-Mar 2014
Sudan FEWSNET February 2014
Tanzania FEWSNET February 2014
Uganda FEWSNET February 2014
Many regions are in stressed condition and specific areas are under crisis or emergency (CAR/DRC/South Sudan). Some areas are at risk of further deterioration (South Sudan, CAR, Sudan)

3. DETERIORATED: South Sudan, Djibouti, Uganda – Karamoja, Kenya.
March Conditions Vrs Current Conditions
April 2014
COUNTRY SOURCE VALIDITY
Burundi FEWSNET March 2014
Central Africa Republic GTT Nov-Dec 2013
Democratic Republic of Congo GTT Dec Jun 2014
Djibouti FEWSNET March 2014
Eritrea N/A N/A
Ethiopia FEWSNET March 2014
Kenya FEWSNET March 2014
Rwanda FEWSNET March 2014
Somalia FSNAU Feb-Jun 2014
South Sudan FS Cluster Jan-Mar 2014
Sudan FEWSNET February 2014
Tanzania FEWSNET February 2014
Uganda FEWSNET February 2014
IMPROVED: Sudan, Ethiopia, CAR, Burundi.
DETERIORATED: South Sudan, Djibouti, Uganda – Karamoja, Kenya.
SAME: DRC, Somalia, Rwanda, Tanzania?

4. Karamoja food security deteriorated as the lean season starts
Current Conditions – Uganda
April 2014
Uganda IPC April 2014
Nov-Jan second harvests replenished food stocks and increased market supplies in most areas
In Karamoja food security deteriorated with the start of the lean season and HHs have low/ no food stocks.
Karamoja under stress (Phase 2) except SE Kaabong, most of Moroto, and parts of Kotido, Napak and Nakapiripirit districts under crisis (Phase 3) - mostly in Central Sorghum and Livestock zone & mixed crop farming zone
Stressed (626, 921) and crisis (412,347) under crisis; the number will increase as lean season progresses
Food insecurity due to inadequate access to food and low HH production
Inadequate access results from limited / lack of employment opportunities, inability to generate sufficient income and high dependency ratio
Inadequate production due to low productivity, lack of access to agricultural inputs pest & diseases, after-harvest sales, inadequate moisture during the cropping season, livestock diseases, and high post-harvest losses
Karamoja food security deteriorated as the lean season starts

5. Current Conditions – Sudan
April 2014
Sudan FEWS NET
# of food insecure people increasing with the onset of lean season in March/April
Food insecurity resulting from conflict in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile States, the below-average 2013/2014 production, and rising food prices
Price of wheat, millet & sorghum rose above 2013 and 5yr average
Access by humanitarian agencies and disrupted trade flows in South Kordofan lowering access to food
Influx of refugees from South Sudan into South Kordofan straining available stocks
Effects of government policies on oil subsidies and currency devaluation
Economic implications of conflict both in Sudan and South Sudan on incomes and access to food by households
Generally food security condition is good but conflicts in South Kordofan pose greatest challenge to food security

6. Current Conditions – Djibouti
Djibouti FEWSNET WFP
In February, 70% of HHs were food insecure; 60% were relying on markets to access food.
Food consumption deteriorated (60%) compared to Sept 2013 (36%).
Food insecure regions are the pastoral south-eastern areas & peri-urban areas of Ville de Djibouti.
Food security situation could be described as under crisis level (IPC Phase 3) in SE pastoral-border livelihood zone, NE region, Obock region, and NW pastoral livelihood zone- (WFP FSMS)
Main concerns: -
reduced rations for severely food insecure HHs since September 2013;
effects of below average Heys / Dadaa (Oct to Feb) rains;
worsening livestock body condition and declining availability of wild foods.
April 2014
Most rural areas and households stressed some areas falling into crisis

7. Current Conditions – Rwanda
Rwanda FEWSNET WFP
Food security most areas is stable (IPC phase 1) following season A harvests.
Stressed condition in several areas of Bugesera district, and parts of Karongi, Rutsiro and Nyamagabe districts that experienced below average crop production due to dry spells, pests, erosion, and high soil acidity in newly terraced fields.
Favorable food security situation to persist due to food access through markets and other sources
75,000 DRC refugees in Nyabiheke, Kiziba, Kigeme, Gihembe, and Nkamira camps
April 2014
Minimal food insecurity, underlying chronic issues in Plateaux Humides causing stress

8. Current Conditions – Burundi
Burundi FEWSNET WFP
Food security stable (IPC phase 1) in some provinces following season A harvests.
Stressed condition in provinces of Makamba, Rutana, Ruyigi and Cankuzo with high returnees and expellees from Tanzania; commune of Ruwonge; and Ngozi and Kayanza provinces where crops were affected by heavy rains and hailstorms in addition to access to land constraints.
Poor HHs in Ngozi and Kayanza provinces likely to slide into crisis (IPC Phase 3) in May/June as they exhaust their food stocks
Some HHs in Bujumbura affected by floods in Feb are food insecure
In Feb/March, markets in Bujumbura were functioning normally and prices were stable.
April 2014
Stressed food security situation due to effects of climatic events, underlying chronic issues and return of vulnerable groups

9. Current Conditions – South Sudan
South Sudan FEWSNET, WFP, OCHA
Over 1M people (803,200 IDPs & 254,600 refugees) displaced and livelihoods disrupted
Food insecurity could worsen as lean season progresses from April and if conflict escalates with impacts on food trade and more displacement during rainy season.
Food security status to be updated after the completion of EFSA, FSMS & IPC analysis (end of April 2014).
About 1.4M people are supported through food assistance
Humanitarian response is hampered by insecurity & inaccessible roads.
Cross-border trade with Uganda resumed and prices of some commodities are declining in some markets though still above average. Limited commodities from Sudan have started moving in. Some markets in conflict areas remain affected and prices have increased compared to same time last year.
March – May rains have started as expected, the agricultural season could be affected by conflicts, lack of inputs and flooding.
Flooding could also affect IDPs residing in flood prone areas
April 2014
Food security situation poor and likely to deteriorate if conflicts continue amidst rising prices and low production

10. Current Conditions – Kenya
April 2014
Kenya KFSSG, FEWSNET, WFP
Food insecure people increased from 0.85M in September 2013 to 1.3m February 2014.
Most ASAL are stressed (IPC Phase 2) except in parts of Marsabit & Turkana Counties under crisis (phase 3) due to poor performance of the short rainy season, conflicts, and gradual increase in market prices
March to May long rains have started and expected to be favorable except in Mandera and Marsabit
Marginal agricultural areas to remain stable in April and HHs food access likely to improve slightly in May when the short cycle crops become available
Price of maize has marginally increased since the beginning of the year and may increase till July when early harvest will be available
Stressed food security situation in ASALs due to poor performance of the short rainy season, conflicts, and gradual increase in market prices.

11. Current Conditions – Somalia
April 2014
Somalia FEWSNET, WFP
Most areas are stressed (IPC Phase 2)
Military operation in Central and South Somalia likely to increase people requiring humanitarian assistance beyond the estimated 860,000
Early and moderated onset of Gu rainy season eased access to water in the South (Bardhere and Dolow) but central regions (Nugal, Galgaduud, Mudug) still experiencing difficulties.
Forecasted rains in Northwest (agro-pastoral areas of Hargeisa and Gabiley; West Golis pastoral areas) will alleviate water scarcity and improve pasture for livestock
Government & AMISOM operation against militants in southern Somalia (Bakool, Hiraan, Gedo, Bay, and Lower Shabelle regions) since March displaced some people and may reduce area under agriculture, hence, production
Stressed food security situation in ASALs due to poor performance of the short rainy season, conflicts, and gradual increase in market prices.

12. Current Conditions – CAR
CAR FEWSNET, FAO
Country facing acute and complex emergency esp. in conflict affected areas.
Performance of most economic sectors have declined since 2012 with implications on income generation.
Food security situation has deteriorated with the beginning of the lean season
2.6M require food assistance but only 1.25M receiving support between Jan – August due to limitation in funding
Access to food is curtailed by widespread displacement, depletion of HH food stocks, destruction of livelihoods & loss of productive assets, inability to raise income, rising food prices, market disruption or limited access to markets.
Low consumption of protein foods due to rising prices has possible implications on nutrition. By Feb 2014, child malnutrition and SAM admissions were 62% higher than 12months earlier.
Rainy season is hampering humanitarian response and propositioning of agricultural inputs.
2014 cropping season to be impacted by insecurity and lack of agricultural inputs
Crisis and emergency situation due to conflicts. Food security situation to be updated after IPC analysis soon .

13. Conflicts a major driver of food insecurity in the country.
Current Conditions – DRC
DRC FEWSNET, IPC, FAO
Prices of staples were stable or lower in February compared to January.
Conflict and displacement along the border with CAR, and armed groups in the Kivu region continue to be of concern & cause of food insecurity
Chronic food insecurity in some provinces in the west
Poor & borderline consumption common among rural communities
Food production in 2013 was at average levels
# of people in acute food insecurity and livelihood crisis (IPC phase 3 & 4) estimated at 6.7M (Dec
Nutrition crisis in the west in Mitwaba: lives characterized by food distress (90.7% of households affected) and a nutritional emergency (21.6% of children 6 to 59 months prevalence of global acute malnutrition)
April 2014
Conflicts a major driver of food insecurity in the country.

14. Current Conditions – Tanzania
April 2014
Tanzania FEWSNET,
Price of maize remained stable in March due to stocks from recent harvests. Price of beans and rice also stable in main outlets.
Maize and rice prices below 2013 level and about 5-yr average.
Stressed food security situation in ASALs due to poor performance of the short rainy season, conflicts, and gradual increase in market prices.

15. Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4)
April 2014
Country
Trend
Pop in IPC phase 3 & 4
Source
Burundi
1,402,517
GTT Aug 13
CAR
929,313
GTT Nov 13
Djibouti
70,000
GTT Oct 12
DRC
6,700,000
GTT Dec 13
Ethiopia
2,700, (require food aid)
GoE Jan 14
Kenya
Somalia
857,000
FSNU Mar 14
South Sudan
3,239,357
LAF Jan 14
Uganda
412,347
IPC Apr 14
Sudan
4,236,000
TWG Aug 13
TOTAL
20,546,534

16. MAS Presentation
April 2014

17. April 2014

18. SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT FINDINGS
FSNWG Meeting
April 17th, 2014

19. Oct-Dec 2013 Rainfall performance (% of normal)
Onset:
Delayed by between 2-4 weeks to start in mid-November instead of mid-October.
Spatial distribution:
Generally uneven with parts of pastoral, southeastern and coastal marginal agriculture receiving less than 80 percent of normal.
Temporal distribution:
Poor
Cessation:
Normal during mid-December to early January, a week earlier than normal

20. Maize production and prospects
Total national maize output, for 2013 production year:
Projected March 2014 output (2.0 Million MT) almost 30% below the five year average ( ) of 2.9 Million MT.
The below average output results from;
Poor rainfall distribution in the high potential areas
Delay in input supply
Crop out seasons to avoid MLND.
Other crops marginally above or below average.

21. Trend of wholesale price of maize

22. Comparative Terms of Trade

23. National Trends of Nutrition Indicators
Children at Risk of Malnutrition
(MUAC <135mm)
Supplementary Feeding Programme Admissions

24. National Nutrition Trend
April to Nov 2013
Projection February to April 2014

25. National Food security trend
August 2013
February 2014

26. Population in need of immediate assistance

27. March - May 2014 Long Rains Forecast

28. Conclusions
The 2013 short rains did not perform well after 3 successive good seasons.
Crop performance in most areas was below average with some areas registering near total crop failure, however water availability can be said to be fair and livestock body condition generally good.
No major livestock disease outbreaks except for endemic diseases which have been managed adequately by the veterinary department in all livelihood zones.
Household food security situation is expected to remain stable, until the onset of the long rains in March 2014.
There are no major negative impacts of the season in the education sector.
Nutrition situation is stable in all areas except in parts of Turkana and Marsabit where the food security situation has deteriorated.

29. Thank You
9/19/2018

30. Summary of the Communique’ Of the SECOND GENERAL ASSEMBLY and ministerial MEETING and the summit, KAMPALA, MARCH 2014
Solomon J. Muchina Munyua
IGAD Centre for Pastoral Areas and Livestock Development

31. Drought Emergency in Sept. 2011:
(Millions of people affected by acute food insecurity)
The regional dimension of drought and famine disasters
AfDB (2011)

32. Recalling political commitment ....
Nairobi Declaration Summit, Sept “End drought emergencies –
and do things differently”
Bestowed leadership and coordination on IGAD
The regional dimension of drought and famine disasters

33. Considerations ..
Progress achieved to date by the various actors including Member states, PCU, IGAD specialized institutions, Devt Partners, UN agencies, NSAs and private setor
2. Critical importance of remittances to communities in arid and semi arid areas
3. The need to facilitate and support communities in the arid and semi-arid areas (ASALs) of IGAD to invest in complimentary livelihood resources;
The regional dimension of drought and famine disasters

34. Appreciated ..
The substantial investments made by our member states in arid and semi arid areas since the September 2011 summit
The sustained support by development partners including financial institutions, UN agencies, NSAs and private sector actors
The integration of the CPPs into national development plans of our MS
Operationalization of PCU and the national coordination mechanisms
The regional dimension of drought and famine disasters

35. Appreciated (2)..
The rolling out of regional programming paper and the regional environmental policies
The establishment and operationalization of the Resilience Analysis Unit (RAU) which is a collaborative effort between IGAD, FAO, WFP, UNICEF and UNDP
The efforts made by Member States to integrate Country Programming Papers/Ending Drought Emergencies in their national development plans as this indicates ownership and ensures sustainability
The regional dimension of drought and famine disasters

36. IGAD ministers and partners present adopted the following communiqué’
Institutionalization of CPPs
Encourage:
MS that have not done so, to take the initial steps of integrating their CPPs into their national development plans and to empower the relevant existing structures/institutions to coordinate and roll out the implementation

37. IGAD ministers and partners present adopted the following communiqué’
Institutionalization of CPPs
Encourage:
MS that have not done so, to take the initial steps of integrating their CPPs into their national development plans and to empower the relevant existing structures/institutions to coordinate and roll out the implementation

38. IGAD ministers and partners present adopted the following communiqué’
Coordination Encourage:
MS to strengthen convening power (leadership) of designated drought resilience management institutions required to facilitate joint humanitarian-development investments to build resilience

39. Investing Differently
Communiqué cont …
Investing Differently
Call on Member States to establish Institutional Frameworks in which National level coordination is directed personally by the Chief Executive of the State, has early warning and supervisory responsibility and is financed by Member States.

40. Resource mobilization
Communiqué cont …
Resource mobilization
Call for increased sustained long term investments in the ASALs which are coordinated and inclusive of target communities, and informed by adequate risk information and contribute to drought resilience.
Encourage MS to provide a conducive environment for the private sector to invest in dry lands.

41. Resource mobilization and KM…..
Cross-border programming Call for harmonization of cross border policies taking into account the livestock and population movements (transhumance), the sharing of natural resources (such as water and grazing) and markets.

42. DECLARATION
Endorses the recommendations of the General Assembly and Steering Committee reached in Kampala, Uganda from 24th to 26th March 2014 and commits Member States and the IGAD Secretariat to their implementation.

43. Thank you for your attention!
IGAD-Secretariat in Djibouti, April 2014