1. GPC CPTEC: Seasonal forecast activities update
Caio Coelho CPTEC/INPE
Presentation plan
Brazilian multi-model seasonal forecast system
EUROBRISA multi-model system
Regionally downscaled forecast products
Final remarks
Joint WGSIP/ET-OPSLS meeting
Exeter, UK, 10 March 2014

2. Brazilian multi-model seasonal forecast system
CPTEC/AGCM: Boundary conditions: persisted and predicted SST anomalies
Convective parameterization schemes: Kuo, RAS, Grell
90 ensemble members
CPT/IRI:
Predictors (SST, Geopotential 500hPa, vertical velocity 850 hPa)
Time series models:
Holt-Winters
Arima
ECHAM4.6/AGCM: Boundary conditions: persisted SST anomalies
20 ensemble members
All models produced retrospective forecasts (hindcasts)
for the period using exactly the same procedure
used in real-time forecasting
Joint effort: CPTEC/INPE, INMET and FUNCEME

3. Multi-model ensemble mean forecast
CPTEC/INMET/FUNCEME
Multi-model ensemble mean forecast
JJA precipitation anomaly
forecast skill:
correlation
Precipitation anomaly forecast
for JJA 2013 (mm)
Final probabilistic forecast derived from forecast anomaly and retrospective correlation skill
Issued in May 2013

4. Precipitation anomaly forecast skill:
CPTEC/INMET/FUNCEME
Multi-model probabilistic forecast
Precipitation anomaly forecast skill:
correlation
Regression based probabilistic forecast obtained from forecast anomaly and past performance
Issued: May 2013
Forecast probabilities determined objectively

5. … task 5.3.1 http://eurobrisa.cptec.inpe.br
EUROBRISA Integrated (empirical-dynamical combined and calibrated) precipitation seasonal forecasting system for South America
Collaborative effort:
INPE/CPTEC, Univ. Exeter, ECMWF,
UK Met Office, Météo-France, UFPR,
USP and INMET
Previously supported by:
Currently supported by:
Key idea: Why not combining all available state-of-the-art forecast information for improving seasonal forecasts in South America - a region where the forecasts have skill and useful value

6. Updated EUROBRISA integrated forecasting system for South America
Combined and calibrated coupled + empirical precip. forecasts
Hybrid multi-model probabilistic system
(NEW)
Integrated
forecast
(NEW)
Updated empirical model (NEW)
Predictors: Atlantic and Pacific SST
Predictand: Precipitation
Coelho et al. (2006) J. Climate, 19,
Produced with forecast assimilation Stephenson et al (2005) Tellus A . Vol. 57,
Hindcast period:
Implemented in Jul 2013
Both forecast and verification products available at

7. Probabilistic forecast verification
products for updated EUROBRISA system
How well calibrated are
EUROBRISA forecasts?
How well do EUROBRISA forecasts detect below normal category events?

8. Prob. of most likely precipitation tercile (%)
EUROBRISA integrated fcst for SON 2013 issued in August
Empirical
ECMWF
UKMO
Obs. SST anomaly
Jul 2013
Meteo-France
Integrated
Prob. of most likely precipitation tercile (%)
Issued: Aug 2013

9. BRAMS MAM 1989 seasonal precipitation forecasts for South America
BRAMS: Brazilian Developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System
GPCP MAM 1989
Total precipitation (mm)
CPTEC AGCM MAM 1989
Total precipitation (mm)
BRAMS MAM 1989
Total precipitation (mm)
Issued in previous Feb
T62L28 (~ 200km x 200km)
Persisted SST of previous Jan
Issued in previous Feb
30km x 30km
Persisted SST of previous Jan

10. CPTEC ETA model seasonal forecast for FMA 2013 issued in January
40km x 40km
Persisted SST of
previous Dec

11. Final remarks
CPTEC GPC forecast products, Brazilian Multi-model forecast system (CPTEC/INMET/FUNCEME), EUROBRISA and ETA forecast products routinely produced and used in national and regional climate outlook forums: demonstrated national and regional cooperation in providing access to forecast products
Currently testing new version of CPTEC AGCM with new physics and dynamics
Start investigating potential gain in predictive skill by increasing spatial forecast resolution when downscaling CPTEC AGCM forecasts with BRAMS

12. Thank you for your attention !