1. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6): Experimental Design and Organization
Veronika Eyring, Jerry Meehl, Bjorn Stevens, Ron Stouffer, Karl Taylor (CMIP Panel)
Sandrine Bony and Cath Senior (WGCM Co-chairs)
18 October 2015
WGCM Meeting, Dubrovnik
Please see the CMIP Panel website for additional information and updates:
Contact for questions: CMIP Panel Chair Veronika Eyring (
The final CMIP6 Design, possibly with small modifications to the here presented figures and wording, will be published in a CMIP6 Special Issue together with a description of the CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs and the forcing datasets. This Special Issue will open ~April 2015.

2. Today’s and Tomorrow’s Agenda
Forcings
Evaluation activities for CMIP6
Data request
Reports by the modelling groups ….
Continued by Posters from each of the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs tomorrow
Unique opportunity to have all these people in one room
Modelling group representatives
MIP co-chairs (1 from each MIP today; possibly more tomorrow)
Martin Juckes and WIP co-chairs (Data request)
WGCM members

3. Timeline Forcing Datasets
Initial description of each forcing dataset sent to CMIP Panel chair (Forcing Group, 31 January 2015)
Initial description reviewed (Model groups, 31 March 2015)
Description of forcing datasets in CMIP6 Special Issue (Forcing Group, preferably by 31 December 2015) => now changed to March 2016
Forcing datasets available (Forcing group, see next slide)

4. 1st draft description of forcings Review forcings descriptions
Finalize scenario choice, March 2015 (O’Neill, Tebaldi, van Vuuren)
CMIP6 Timeline
WGCM CMIP6 Design
Jan 1
2015
April
July
Oct
2016
CMIP6 Design Special Issue including forcing description
Oct
2016
Jan 1
2017
1st draft description of forcings
Review forcings descriptions
PI/Historical SLCF emissions (S. Smith)
Historical SLCF emissions with uncertainties, seasonality, + (S. Smith)
Historical GHG emissions to 2014 (B. Andres)
Gridded GDP and population maps etc. (HYDE & IIASA website)
= prototype ready
Historical land use (G. Hurtt, D. Lawrence)
= Pre-industrial ready
Historical GHG concentrations (M. Meinshausen)
Historical ozone concentrations (M. Hegglin, J.-F. Lamarque)
Historical aerosol concentrations (B. Stevens)
Solar past and future (K. Matthes, B. Funke)
Volcanoes (L. Thomason et al.)
Future emissions (IAMs)
Gridding & Harmonization past to future (IAMs) Future GHG concentrations (IAMs)
Future ozone and aerosol concentrations (M. Hegglin, J.-F Lamarque, B. Stevens)
Future harmonized land use dataset (G. Hurtt, D. Lawrence)
PI control and idealized model experiments: DECK
CMIP6 Historical Simulation
ScenarioMIP global model runs
Nominal Period of CMIP6 ( )

5. Timeline Data Request

6. CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs)
Ongoing Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima
(DECK) Experiments
DECK (entry card for CMIP)
AMIP simulation (~ )
Pre-industrial control simulation
1%/yr CO2 increase
Abrupt 4xCO2 run
CMIP6 Historical Simulation (entry card for CMIP6)
Historical simulation using CMIP6 forcings ( )
(DECK & CMIP6 Historical Simulation to be run for each model configuration used in the subsequent CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs)
Note: The themes in the outer circle of the figure might be slightly revised at the end of the MIP endorsement process

7. CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs and Model Groups’ Commitments to Participate in each MIP
Long Name of MIP (Short Name of MIP) 1
Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) 2
Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) 3
Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) 4
Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) 5
Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) 6
Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) 7
Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) 8
Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project (GMMIP) 9
High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) 10
Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) 11
Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture MIP (LS3MIP) 12
Land-Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) 13
Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) 14
Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) 15
Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) 16
Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) 17
Volcanic Forcings Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) 18
Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) 19
Dynamics and Variability of the Stratosphere-Troposphere System (DynVar) 20
Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) 21
Vulnerability, Impacts & Adaptation and Climate Services AB (VIACS AB)
VIA AB includes members from the Global Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation (PROVIA), the IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on
Regional Climate (WGRC), the International Committee On New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios (ICONICS), and the Climate Services community

8. Status and Outlook CMIP6 Status
CMIP6 Organization and Design finalized
CMIP6 MIP endorsement of April 2015 proposals finalized
Timelines in place for forcing datasets
CMIP6 Simulation Period ( )
Infrastructure in preparation (including data request) by WGCM Infrastructure Panel (WIP)
CMIP6 Participating Model Groups: > 30 using a hierarchy of models
CMIP6 Scenarios
New scenarios span the same range as the RCPs, but fill critical gaps for intermediate forcing levels and questions for example on short-lived species and land-use.
A central goal of CMIP6 is routine evaluation of the models with observations
Coordinated by the WGNE / WGCM climate diagnostics and metrics panel in collaboration with the CMIP Panel
Workshops/meetings
18-20 October 2015: WGCM-19 (Dubrovnik, Croatia)
20-23 October 2015: WCRP/FP7 EMBRACE Workshop on CMIP5 Model Analysis and Scientific Plans for CMIP6 (Dubrovnik, Croatia)
Geosci. Model Dev. Special Issue on CMIP6 (July December 2016)
Overview of the CMIP6 Design and Organization (Eyring et al., in prep, GMD, 2015)
Experimental design from all CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs (submission by 31 March 2016)
Description of the CMIP6 forcing data
Description of evaluation procedures (including obs4MIPs) and Infrastructure
( and the newly formed
  Nature Scientific Data (
The  machinery for QC of data and metadata standards falls under this.
These will require a "non-trivial"
  amount of work to develop (as promised in the WIP charter!) and may
  involve surveys of data providers and users 8

9. CMIP6 Overview Paper Background and motivation for new CMIP structure
Overview of Special Issue
Description of CMIP
DECK experiments with detailed description how
Experiment
CMIP6 label
Experiment Description
Forcing methods
Start Year
End Year
Minimum # Years
Major purpose
Historical AMIP
amip
Observed SSTs and SICs prescribed
CO2 concentration-driven
1979
2014 36
Evaluation
Pre-industrial control
piControl
Coupled atmosphere/ocean pre-industrial control run (concentration driven)
CO2 emission- or concentration-driven
1850
n/a
500
Evaluation, unforced variability
1 %/yr CO2
1pctCO2
CO2 prescribed to increase at 1%/yr until concentrations have quadrupled, and then (optionally) extended 160 years with CO2 concentration held constant
140
Climate sensitivity, feedbacks
Quadruple CO2 abruptly, then hold fixed
abrupt4xCO2
CO2 abruptly quadrupled and then held constant
150
Climate sensitivity, feedbacks, fast responses
Past ~1.5 centuries
historical
Simulation of the recent past
165

10. CMIP6 Overview Paper Background and motivation for new CMIP structure
Overview of Special Issue
Description of CMP
DECK
CMIP standardization, coordination, infrastructure, and documentation functions
Overview of CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs
Short name of MIP
Long name of MIP
Primary Goal in CMIP6 1
AerChemMIP
Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project
Quantifying forcings, feedbacks and global-to-regional climate response from changes in near term climate forcers (NTCF) emissions (aerosols and ozone precursors) and reactive GHGs concentrations. 2
C4MIP
Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project
Understanding and quantifying future (century-scale) changes in land and ocean carbon storage and fluxes. 21
VIACS AB
=> Please send us 1-2 sentences on the goal of you MIP that you want to see in this table if possible by Friday lunch time

11. CMIP6 Special Issue in GMD1
CMIP6 Experimental Design & Organisation
Overview 2
AerChemMIP
CMIP6-Endorsed MIP 3
C4MIP 4
CFMIP 5
DAMIP 6
DCPP 7
FAFMIP 8
GeoMIP 9
GMMIP 10
HighResMIP 11
ISMIP6 12
LS3MIP 13
LUMIP 14
OMIP 15
PMIP 16
RFMIP 17
ScenarioMIP 18
VolMIP 19
CORDEX* 20
DynVar* 21
SIMIP* 22
VIACS AB* 23
Historical SLCF and GHG Emissions
Forcings DECK and Historical Simulation 24
Global Gridded Land-use Forcing Datasets 25
Historical GHG concentrations 26
Ozone and Stratospheric Water Vapor Concentrations 27
Aerosol Concentrations 28
Solar forcing 29
Stratospheric Aerosol Data Set 30
Future Emissions
Should be described in ScenarioMIP paper? 31
AMIP SSTs and Sea Ice Datasets 32
WGCM Infrastructure Panel (WIP)
Infrastructure 33
CMIP6 Data Request 34
WGNE/WGCM climate model diagnostics and metrics panel
Model Evaluation 35
WDAC Task Team on Observations for Model Evaluation
( and the newly formed
  Nature Scientific Data (
The  machinery for QC of data and metadata standards falls under this.
These will require a "non-trivial"
  amount of work to develop (as promised in the WIP charter!) and may
  involve surveys of data providers and users 11

12. MIP Papers (1)
We are hoping that the GMD paper describing your MIP addresses all points of the application template and links clearly to one or more of the CMIP6 scientific questions and the WCRP Grand Challenges.
that your paper covers the experimental design and scientific justification of each of the experiments in detail for Tier 1 (and possibly beyond), so that the groups actually find all the necessary information on why and how to run the experiment in your paper.
Detailed technical instructions could be moved to supporting material if required.
Your paper should also clearly make links from your experiments to the DECK and the CMIP6 Historical Simulation which form the glue of our CMIP6 multi-model, multi- experiment exercise.  
It is expected that the MIPs also include a strong analysis plan to fully justify the resources used to produce the various requested variables. Further if the analysis plan is to compare model results to observations, please indicate what observations will be used, and whether the comparison entails any particular requirement for the simulations or outputs.
The forcings for the DECK and the CMIP6 Historical Simulations will be described as well in the CMIP6 Special Issue. Should you require additional forcings as part of your MIP experiments these would need to be created by your MIP and described in your GMD contribution.

13. MIP Papers (2)
We have chosen an open-discussion journal for the review process to allow for yet another entry point for the community to broadly review the specific design.
Should you receive comments on specific experiments that your author team finds worth considering, or receive otherwise important information, individual experiments can still change or be added.
If this results in a change to the Tier 1 experiments, this requires CMIP Panel approval. In addition, the modelling groups that participate in your MIP need to be informed and confirm that they would still run all of the Tier 1 experiments for a specific science question.
If this applies to Tier 2 or 3 experiments, the MIP endorsement criteria that relate to these experiments need to be fulfilled, in particular that the experiments are well-defined, useful in a multi-model context and don’t overlap with other CMIP6 experiments.
All authors for GMD are expected to suggest 5 reviewers for each manuscript which the editor may, at their own discretion, use as a guide for inviting reviewers. For our GMD special issue on CMIP6, the GMD chief-executive editor requests that the authors find at least one reviewer from their five suggestions who agrees beforehand to review the manuscript. The authors should state this person's name in the message to the editor.
In order to get the CMIP6 design well-described in time for the modelling groups to prepare and start the runs, the deadline for the submission of the papers for the now endorsed MIPs is 31 March 2016.