1. Corn Slumps on Sowing Surge
Update on Cash Crops:
Corn Slumps on Sowing Surge
Coleman Research Group Presentation
Apr. 8, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. Source: USDA-WAOB, adjusted for Mar. reports
U.S. Corn Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
93.6
Yield
(bu./acre)
123.1
158.1
171.0
168.4
168.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,601
14,378
Beg. Stocks
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,837
Imports
160 36 32 50 40
Total Supply
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,382
16,255
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,324
5,300
5,425
Ethanol
4,641
5,124
5,200
5,225
Food, Seed, & Other
1,397
1,369
1,360
1,370
1,375
Exports
730
1,920
1,864
1,650
1,700
Total Use
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,545
13,725
Ending Stocks
2,530
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.60
?.??
Source: USDA-WAOB, adjusted for Mar. reports 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
82.2
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
46.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,929
3,796
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
460
Imports 41 72 33 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,150
4,286
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,870
1,900
Seed & Residual
105
107
145
130
125
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,843
1,690
1,825
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,862
3,690
3,850
Ending Stocks
436
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.75
?.??
Source: USDA-WAOB, adjusted for Mar. reports 3 3

4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
55.3
56.2
56.8
54.6
49.6
Yield
(bu./acre)
46.2
47.1
43.7
43.6
45.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,252
2,135
2,026
2,052
1,936
Beg. Stocks
743
718
590
752
966
Imports
123
173
149
120
125
Total Supply
3,118
3,026
2,766
2,924
3,027
Food
945
955
958
967
971
Seed 73 77 79 66 72
Feed & Residual
370
228
122
150
200
Exports
1,012
1,176
854
775
850
Total Use
2,400
2,436
2,014
1,958
2,093
Ending Stocks
934
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
7.77
6.87
5.99
5.00
?.??
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. Corn Prospective Plantings
Top: 2016 Plantings
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Soybean Prospective Plantings
Top: 2016 Plantings
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

7. Winter Wheat Plantings
Top: 2016 Plantings
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Spring Wheat Plantings
Top: 2016 Plantings
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

9. Change in Planted Area
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS

10. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. World Wheat Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

15. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Wheat Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Corn Grind for Ethanol

19. Ethanol Stocks

20. Current Corn Futures
3.72
3.60
3.56
Source: CME Group, 4/6/2016

21. Current Soybean Futures
8.86
8.87
8.81
Source: CME Group, 4/6/2016

22. Current Wheat Futures
5.06
4.91
4.56
Source: CME Group, 4/6/2016

23. Thoughts for 2016 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Plenty of acreage in play
Moisture conditions will affect planting
For the most part, demand is holding up well
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(4/6/16)
2016/17
Corn
$3.70
$3.60
$3.56
Soybeans
$10.10
$8.75
$8.81
$8.86
Wheat
$5.99
$5.00
$4.91
$4.56

24. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: