1. Feeder cattle Seasonal Price trends
Dr. Curt Lacy
Extension Economist-Livestock

2. Objectives
Show that cattle prices USUALLY move in a predictable pattern.
Show that the patterns vary with the class of cattle.
Explore the factors that can affect these seasonal trends.

3. Prices Usually Follow Some Predictable Pattern

4. Using Seasonalities to Market Cattle
Beef cattle prices usually follow a seasonal trend.
These trends are USUALLY fairly predictable.
We can use these seasonalities to estimate anticipated cash prices:
Decide on a future marketing date.
Decide if we want to pre-price now.
Decide if we want to sell now as opposed to stockering or feeding.

5. Two ways to use seasonal information in predicting a price
Seasonal prices
Buy-sell margin

6. Seasonal Prices Dollar values Averages Usually predictable
However, major supply or demand shocks can disrupt these seasonalities.

7. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

8. Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

9. Different classes have different seasonalities
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA/AMS
Different classes have different seasonalities

10. Limitations with Seasonals
Based on averages
Not absolute
However, the highs and lows tend to group toward certain months.

12. Times Average Prices Were in the TOP 1/3 for the Year, 2006-2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
lbs. Str.
1/5
3/5
0/5
2/5
Lbs Str.
4/5

13. Times Average Prices Were in the BOTTOM1/3 for the Year, 2006-2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
lbs. Str.
3/5
1/5
0/5
4/5
Lbs Str.
2/5

14. Buy-Sell Margins Useful in stocker or feeder programs
Difference in sales price and purchase price
Usually negative
Can be used to estimate expected sales price
Very useful in determining potential profitability

15. Time of Year is important in BSM Fall Stockering
Buy Here
Sell Here

16. BSM and Change in Value 400-500 fall to 700-800 spring

17. BSM and Change in Value Retain 500-550 fall sell 800+ spring

18. Summary
Seasonal information can be very useful in making marketing decisions.
The best or worst time of the year depends on the market class.
Price is just part of profits.
Your local market info trumps “state” info.

19. Additional Resources www.secattleadvisor.com
UGA Marketing Alternatives Calculator
Buy-Sell Margins Calculator