1. Coastal Impacts Due to Sea-Level Rise
D.M. FitzGerald
M.S. Fenster
B.A. Argrow
I.V. Buynevich
2008

2. Problem
10% of the world’s population lives within ten meter elevation of sea level
Includes 17 of 30 largest cities
Rising sea level makes coastal populations more vulnerable to storm surges, larger tides, and tsunamis.

3. Question What will be “the response of coasts to sea-level rise (SLR)”
Concentrates on Coastal plain settings
Beaches
Barrier chains
Tidal inlets
Back-barrier wetlands

4. Methods
Researchers used several mathematical models to link sea level changes to resulting responses
Equilibrium Profile
Predictive Model
Predictive Morphological-Behavior Model

5. Equilibrium Profile
“A time averaged response to variations in energy and sediment supply” (611)
H(x) = Ax2/3
Used to predict shoreline migration as a result of sediment

6. The Predictive Model
“An equation based on the Bruun equation, where the shoreline retreat rate is a function of the cross-shore distance to closure and depth, the elevation estimate of the eroded area, and the SLR rate”
Suggests that “Small increases in SLR result in relatively large shoreline recessions” ( )

7. Predictive Morphological-Behavior Model
Tries to simulate the “large scale morphologic and strati-graphic evolution of coasts that results from changes in sea level and sediment supply” ( )
Tested wetlands, barriers, and tidal inlets

8. Predictive Morphological-Behavior Model cont.
Wetlands - converted to open water?
Not lineraly related to the rate of SLR
Barrier Islands
Will increase erosion globally
Tidal Inlets
Channel size will increase

9. Conclusion SLR will be costly in terms of money and human impact
SLR will cause:
Barrier islands to shift landward
Saltmarshes to drown
Backbarrier inlets to become open water; making inlets larger

10. Critiques
Could have been more thorough - focused on only one area instead of the world
Could have tried to put a price tag on the damage
Would have been effective if they had made predictions instead of generalizations