1. WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management
Lecture-2: Module- 2
Climate Change in context of Bangladesh
Professor A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)
11 May 2016

2. Module-2 Climate variability and climate change.
Global warming and green house gases
Historic aspects of global climate change
Climate change in South Asian context: Case study

3. Climate Change in Bangladesh

4. Temperature Data Analysis (1947-2007)
Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of C per 100 years

5. Trends of Temperature of Bangladesh (1947-2007)
Max. Temp. = C/100 year
Min. Temp. = C/100 year

7. Temperature anomaly based on the observed data of the 24 BMD stations (1971-2015)
Solid bold line represents 3 year moving average

8. Meteorological Observational Stations in Bangladesh

9. Trends of Temperature For 34 ground measuring Stations of BMD ID
Latitude
Longitude
Altitude
Max. Temp. (0C per yr.)
Min. Temp. (0C per yr.)
11704
Barisal
22.72
90.37
2.1 m
0.0077
11706
Bhola
22.68
90.65
4.3 m
0.0170
0.0206
10408
Bogra
24.85
89.37
17.9 m
0.0117
0.0404
11316
Chandpur
23.23
90.7
4.9 m
0.0163
0.0161
11921
Chittagong
22.35
91.82
33.2 m
0.0224
0.009
41926
Chuadanga
23.65
88.82
11.6 m
0.0217
11313
Comilla
23.43
91.18
9 m
0.0049
11927
Cox's Bazar
21.45
91.97
0.0295
0.022
11111
Dhaka
23.78
90.38
6.5 m
0.0119
0.0225
10120
Dinajpur
25.65
88.68
37.6 m
0.0151
11505
Faridpur
23.93
89.85
8.1 m
0.0275  
11805
Feni
23.03
91.42
6.4 m
0.0174
0.0331
11814
Hatiya
22.45
91.1
2.4 m
0.0261
10910
Ishardi
24.15
89.03
12.9 m
0.0032
0.0037
11407
Jessore
23.2
89.33
6 m
0.0147
0.0113
12110
Khepupara
21.98
90.23
1.8 m
0.0266
11604
Khulna
22.78
89.53
11925
Kutubdia
21.82
91.85
2.7 m
0.0416
0.0248
11513
Madaripur
23.17
90.18
7 m
0.0047   
11809
Maijdicourt
22.87
0.0193
0.0204
41958
Mongla
22.47
89.6
0.0430
0.0104
10609
Mymensing
24.73
90.42
18 m
0.0086
12103
Patuakhali
22.33
90.33
1.5 m
0.0328
0.026
10320
Rajshahi
24.37
88.7
19.5 m
0.0110
0.0027
12007
Rangamati
22.63
92.15
68.9 m
10208
Rangpur
25.73
89.27
32.6 m
0.0281
11916
Sandwip
22.48
91.43
2 m
0.0074
11610
Satkhira
89.08
4 m
0.0065
0.0107
41858
Sayedpur
25.75
88.92
39.6 m
11912
Sitakunda
91.7
7.3 m
0.0581
10724
Srimangal
24.3
91.73
22 m
0.0030
0.0237
10705
Sylhet
24.9
91.88
33.5 m
0.0057
41909
Tangail
24.25
89.93
10.2 m
11929
Teknaf
20.87
92.3
5 m
0.0242
0.0236
Trends of Temperature
For 34 ground measuring
Stations of BMD

10. Monthly temperature over Bangladesh (1948-2007)

11. Month-wise Trends Month Max. Temp. (0C per yr.) Min. Temp. January
0.0104
February
0.0000
0.0340
March
0.0220
April
0.0121
May
0.0010
0.0052
June
0.0139
0.0103
July
0.0116
0.0075
August
0.0183
0.0081
September
0.0070
0.0031
October
0.0178
0.0078
November
0.0270
0.0289
December
0.0147

12. Change of mean temperature(0C/year)

13. Average Temperature in January (1948-2007)
Daily Minimum
Daily Maximum

14. Spatial Distribution of Trends of Temperature (1947-2007)
Maximum Temperature
Maximum increase: at Shitakunda
Minimum increase: at Rangpur
Minimum Temperature
Maximum increase: at Bogra
Minimum increase: at Tangail

15. Hydrological Regions of Bangladesh
Eight hydrological planning regions of Bangladesh classified by Water Resources Planning Organization to facilitate water management of the country. These regions are: North East (NE), North Central (NC), North West (NW), South East (SE), South Central (SC), South West (SW), Eastern Hill (EH) and River and Estuary (RE).
Results obtained from this study has presented for the stations in one of the eight hydrological (planning) regions of Bangladesh as per NWMP, 2001. NW NC NE SE SC SW RE EH

16. Relationship with Rainfall

17. Trends of Rainfall (mm/year)
Zones
Pre monsoon
Monsoon
Post Monsoon
Winter
North West
1.89
4.26
1.99
0.10
North East
5.62
-0.69
-0.25
-0.09
North Central
1.36
3.29
1.40
0.26
South West
3.25
7.05
1.37
0.68
South East
2.13
-2.25
-0.16
0.13
South Central
2.03
5.88
1.19
River and Estuary
3.86
1.28
1.81
-0.08
Eastern Hilly
5.12
8.49
1.33
0.32

18. Decadal Changes of Annual Rainfall

19. Climate Change Impact for Bangladesh
Increase of intensity and duration of natural disasters such as floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges.
Increase of moisture stress (droughts) due to erratic precipitation
Salinity intrusion due to Sea Level Rise
Inundation due to sea level rise leading towards “Climate Refugees”
Effect on health and livelihood of coastal people.
Effect on Bio-diversity, Ecology & Sundarbans.
Hampered Food Security & Social Security.

20. Impact of Climate Change on the Sundarbans ..Mangrove forest?

21. Coastal modeling using Delft3D
DELFT3D- FLOW is a multi-dimensional (2D or 3D) hydrodynamic (and transport) simulation program which calculates unsteady flow and transport phenomena that result from tidal and meteorological forcing on a rectilinear or a curvilinear, boundary fitted grid.

22. Tidal Validation: Complex Error of tidal constituents
Hiron Point
FES2014: cm
DELFT3D: cm
Char Changa
FES2014: cm
DELFT3D: cm
Cox’s Bazar
FES2014: 37.6 cm
DELFT3D: 40.2 cm

23. Inundation map for 1.0m and 0.5m Sea Level Rise (SLR)
Inundation area will be increased under increased SLR
0.5m SLR
1.0m SLR

24. Changes of Inundation area due SLR
Inundated Area(sq.km)
Percent of total Bangladesh
Percent of Coastal Zone
Affected population
0.5m
2000
1.6
4.3
25,00,000 1m
3930
3.8
8.4
60,00,000
1.5m
5300
5.1
11.3
80,00,000
1m (No Polder)
8500
8.3
18.0
130,00,000

25. Inundation statistics for the Sundarbans
SLR (m)
Inundated Area (km2)
% of inundation Area
0.5m
491
11.37 1m
1847
42.78
1.5m
2635
61.04

26. Storm surge inundation caused by cyclone SIDR under SLR conditions
Category 4 cyclone SIDR hit Bangladesh coast on 15 November 2007
Mean Sea Level Pressure
TRACK of SIDR
Cyclone SIDR Image

27. Changes of Storm Surge Inundation under the SLR conditions
With SLR, cyclonic storm surge inundation area will be increased.
Maximum inundation
Of cyclone SIDR
With 0.5m SLR

28. Inundation area and affected people under different SLR conditions
SIDR
AILA
Area
(Km^2)
% Country
Population
(million) %
Country
Present
1484
1.2
1.9
1999
1.5
2.3
0.5m SLR
3380
2.6
4.1
4226
3.3
5.1
1m SLR
5777
4.4
7.0
6216
4.8
7.5
1.5m SLR
7588
5.8
9.1
7497
9.0

29. Facing Climate Change National Awareness building Mitigation
Capacity Building through Training
Innovative Research for knowledge generations
Mitigation
Reduce Co2 emission, Use Green technology
Use of Alternative Energy sources – Solar, Wind etc.
Adaptation –
Build Shelters, Rise Embankments & Polders, Roads, Houses
Salinity tolerant crops, Forestation, alternative livelihood, improve warning system, migrations
Global Awareness & Justice
– Kyoto Protocol, COP15…COP22…. Raise our voice !

30. Thank you