1. Presentation by Dr. Kevin Lasher
POL 101: U.S. Government
Presentation by Dr. Kevin Lasher

2. Models of
Presidential
Behavior

3. Three Models of Presidential Behavior
Sorensen’s theory of limitations
Barber’s theory of presidential character
Skowronek’s theory of political time x
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4. Theodore Sorensen Advisor and speechwriter for JFK
Wrote several books on Kennedy presidency
Advisor to later Democratic presidential nominees
Taught at Princeton and Harvard
Viewed presidency from both “inside” and “outside”
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5. Sorensen’s limitations
Presidents do not feel particular powerful
They are limited or constrained by various factors
More successful presidents overcome these limitations, less successful presidents do not
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6. Sorensen’s limitations
Limitations of permissibility
Limitations of previous commitments
Limitations of time
Limitations of information
Limitations of resources
Institutional limitations
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7. Limitations of Permissibility
Certain policies are unacceptable for advanced democratic capitalist system
Some degree of “morality” in international behavior
Some notion of “good society” at home
Use nuclear weapons, dominate other countries, ignore critical social problems, steal elections
Torture, domestic spying, drones
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8. Limitations of Previous Commitments
Presidents inherit the policies and programs of their predecessors (not just recent ones)
Presidents do not start with “clean slate”
American troops in Europe, Japan, South Korea
Obama inherited Iraq and Afghanistan from Bush
Can be constrained by their own earlier statements or actions
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9. Limitations of Time Presidents are human not 24-hour machines
Non-essential duties
Presidents must choose 3-4 issues to focus on in first term
Concept of political timing
Crises must be dealt with and can change plans
Re-election and lame-duck pressures
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10. Limitations of Information
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Bureaucracy to provide president with advice on host of issues
CEA, OMB, GAO, White House staff, academics, think tanks; CIA, DIA, NSA, NSC, many others
Information overload

11. Limitations of Information
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Presidents always have “imperfect” information
Presidents must take risks with inadequate information (greater in foreign policy)
Risks can lead to success or failure
Desire for more information leads to “paralysis”

12. Limitations of Resources
Federal budget is not unlimited (more of a problem for Democrats)
Military manpower, political capital, presidential appeals to Congress, televised addresses
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13. Institutional Limitations
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14. Institutional Limitations
Three branches with checks and balances
Federal system designed to move slowly
Often have “divided government”
Federalism in which states have powers
Presidents consider public opinion and re-election
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15. Three Models of Presidential Behavior
Sorenson’s theory of limitations
Barber’s theory of presidential character
Skowronek’s theory of political time x
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16. James David Barber Political Scientist at Duke University (presidency)
The Presidential Character
Predicted “downfall” of President Nixon in 1972; launched his model
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17. James David Barber
Presidential personality is an important determinant of their actions
Presidential personality is patterned – character, style and world view form a coherent psychological cluster
Presidential personality interacts with the climate of expectations of the period in which they serve
Personality is formed in early life and early political experiences
Four-part personality typology
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18. James David Barber
We want presidents with more “good traits” than “bad traits”
“We are talking about tendencies, broad directions; no individual man exactly fits a category.”
Strong personality tendencies, but nothing is inevitable
Lots of problems with this model, but still “appealing”
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19. Active or Passive ACTIVE
Energetic, problem-solving, thrive on challenge of office
Center of White House
Democratic Party bias?
PASSIVE
Few policy initiatives, care-taker administration
Ceremonial duties
Aloof managerial style
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20. Positive or Negative POSITIVE Enjoy being President
Accept criticism, sense of humor, interact with press
Flexible, learn from mistakes, demonstrate growth
NEGATIVE
Presidency as burden, office weighs heavily on them
Thin-skinned, hate press
Inflexible, cannot change course
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21. Barber’s Typology     ACTIVE PASSIVE POSITIVE NEGATIVE FDR Bush 41
Truman Clinton
JFK
Carter
Ford
Taft
Harding
Reagan 
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE 
Wilson Hoover
LBJ
Nixon
[Bush 43]
Coolidge
Eisenhower  

22. Barber’s Typology: Passive-Negative
Presidents who accomplish very little and seem to have very little enjoyment in their role
Why do these men become President? – it is their duty to serve
“Silent Cal” Coolidge who believed in limited government
Coolidge suffered from depression after the death of his teen-age son prior to the election of 1924
Coolidge served during the “Roaring Twenties” when the government was on auto-pilot
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23. Barber’s Typology: Passive-Negative
Eisenhower pressured into running in 1952, disliked campaigning and speech-making
Eisenhower delegated a great deal of authority
High approval ratings throughout presidency
Eisenhower failed to use his popularity and high standing to push a domestic agenda, especially on civil rights
Eisenhower had a heart attack in 1955 and a minor stroke in 1957
Pursued a cautious foreign policy with the Soviet Union
“Hidden-hand Presidency” where Eisenhower was more in charge behind the scenes than many believed at the time
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24. Barber’s Typology: Passive-Positive
“Lazy” presidents with modest political agendas (or less)
They are well-liked, they avoid conflict, they want to be “loved” by everyone
They seem to enjoy their time as president, possess a superficial optimism
Harding spent time playing cards, golf and at the theater
Spent a good deal of time with his friends and mistress
Harding’s best trait is that he “looked like what a President should look like”; felt overwhelmed
Friends in Cabinet involved in scandals
Rated as one of our worst presidents
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25. Barber’s Typology: Passive-Positive
Reagan had a strong policy agenda (cut taxes, increase defense spending, shrink government)
Reagan was incredibly hands-off in management style
Short days with lots of vacations
Enjoyed playing the role of president, brought sunny optimism to the country
Had success when surrounded by strong advisors, much less success in second term with new team
Barber does not seem to be able to explain the fact that the Reagan presidency is generally seen as rather successful
Helped end Cold War with USSR
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26. Barber’s Typology     ACTIVE PASSIVE POSITIVE NEGATIVE FDR Bush 41
Truman Clinton
JFK
Carter
Ford
Taft
Harding
Reagan 
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE 
Wilson Hoover
LBJ
Nixon
[Bush 43]
Coolidge
Eisenhower  

27. Barber’s Typology: Active-Positive
High self-esteem, high confidence in their ability to do the job
Adept at the give and take of politics, they thrive on the challenges of the office
Have assertive policy agendas and are hands-on managers
Flexible, able to accept mistakes and move in a different direction
Display growth during presidency
Not angels – highly capable and generally effective
Success is not guaranteed
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28. Barber’s Typology: Active-Positive
FDR: highly manipulative of subordinates
Truman: had a temper and could be impulsive
JFK: serial adulterer
Carter: arrogant and unable to cooperate with congressional Democrats
Bush 41: lacked the “vision thing”
Clinton: intelligent but undisciplined, sexual affair led to impeachment
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29. Barber’s Typology: Active-Negative
Energetic with assertive agendas
Low self-esteem drives a need for power and to dominate others
Early achievements bring little sense of satisfaction
Constantly questioning their authentic abilities
Personality defects lead to rigidification – they get stuck on a particular policy which leads to their downfall
Can do great harm to the country
Partial successes who crash and burn in failure
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30. Barber’s Typology: Active-Negative
Wilson and his stubbornness on League of Nations Treaty
Hoover and his unwillingness to get the national government to intervene in Great Depression
Johnson and the disaster of the Vietnam War
Nixon and the Watergate scandal which led to his resignation
Bush 43 and Iraq (?????)
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31. Three Models of Presidential Behavior
Sorenson’s theory of limitations
Barber’s theory of presidential character
Skowronek’s theory of political time x
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32. Stephen Skowronek’s Theory of Political Time
Political Scientist at Yale University
Politics Presidents Make and Presidential Leadership in Political Time

34. Stephen Skowronek’s Theory of Political Time
Does not differentiate between traditional and modern presidencies
Theory applies to 200 years of presidential administrations
Moves away from character or individual actions and focuses on the possibilities and constraints of the particular political era

35. Stephen Skowronek’s Theory of Political Time
Presidents act within the context of the “regime cycle” in which they find themselves
Presidents act in particular ways based on the historical circumstances in which they enter the White House

36. Stephen Skowronek’s Theory of Political Time
At various points in history certain presidents come to power by creating a new party coalition and political agenda into a new political regime
These political regimes endure through subsequent presidencies but eventually end
Presidents face different challenges and need different kinds of leadership styles depending on where they fall within the cycle of a particular regime

37. Political Regimes 1800-1828: Jefferson regime (Democratic-Republican)
: Jackson regime (Democrats)
1860/ : Lincoln/Republican regime
: FDR regime (New Deal Democrats)
1980-present: Reagan regime (???) (conservative)

38. Regime Construction
Regime Articulation
Regime Disjunction

39. Regime Construction
Reconstructive presidents establish new political regimes
They seize the moment to form new political coalitions, apply new strategies to achieve their goals, and move the political agenda on a new course
Skowronek does not talk directly about party realignments, but that is clearly a part of his theory
Reconstructive presidents build a new political regime that continues beyond their presidencies

40. Regime Construction Reconstructive presidents are “builders”
Skowronek classifies Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, FDR and probably Reagan as such presidents
Maximum flexibility to take on new issues and establish new methods
These are great or near-great presidents

41. Regime Articulation
Articulator presidents are partisans of the new political regime, but their job is to fine-tune and continue the policies established by their predecessors
Articulators face the task of keeping the regime’s political coalition together while adapting to new policy challenges that threaten to fracture the coalition

42. Regime Articulation
If reconstructive presidents are “builders,” then articulators are “maintainers”
Take the new system that they have inherited and preserve and slightly improve it
They are bound by the actions of the regime builders

43. Regime Articulation Jefferson – followed by Madison and Monroe
Jackson – followed by Van Buren and Polk
FDR – followed by Truman, JFK, LBJ
Reagan – followed by Bush 41 (and Bush 43 ?)

44. Regime Disjunction
Disjunctive presidents come at the end of a regime and try to prevent its dissolution
Political coalition is overly stressed and fractures
Disjunctive presidents face new issues and are unable to deal with them
The old regime is rapidly deteriorating and these presidents preside over its eventual collapse
Their task is almost impossible and they are usually viewed as failures

45. Regime Disjunction Jefferson regime falls apart under JQ Adams
Jackson regime falls apart under Pierce/Buchanan
Lincoln regime falls apart under Hoover
FDR regime falls apart under Carter

46. Regime Construction
Regime Articulation
Regime Disjunction

47. Regime Opposition
Oppositional presidents are members of the political party that is against the current political regime
Oppositional presidents may win based on their personal appeal or some weakness in their immediate predecessor
They are “outliers” to the existing political regime
Their task is to make small modifications in the policies of the dominant regime without directly challenging it
They are anomalies in the regime cycle and they must be careful in how far they can challenge the dominant regime
They are followed by a return to regime articulators

48. Regime Opposition
Jackson regime includes Whigs Harrison-Tyler and Taylor-Fillmore
FDR regime includes Eisenhower and Nixon
Reagan regime (?) includes Clinton and Obama

49. Regime Disjunction Presided over the final collapse of the FDR regime
White southerners fleeing the Democratic Party for a decade
Big government economic intervention unable to deal with the economic challenges of the 1970s
Unable to rejuvenate a decaying political regime
Skowronek would say the Carter presidency was “doomed” because of regime decay
Jimmy Carter,

50. Regime Construction
Created a new conservative program of tax cuts, defense increases, and attempts to shrink the size of government
Following discredited Carter presidency
New Republican Party includes evangelicals and “Reagan Democrats”
Republican Senate and working majority in the House
Despite his failings, restored belief that a President could be successful
Skowronek wonders how complete this new regime really was, limited success in fundamentally shrinking government
Ronald Reagan,

51. Regime Articulation Managed the next phase of the “Reagan revolution”
Great political resume, but lacked the charisma of Reagan
A “kinder and gentler” version of Reaganism
Successful management of end of the Cold War and first Gulf War
Tax increases seen as betrayal of Reaganism
Lost re-election due to candidate Bill Clinton, mild recession and independent Ross Perot
George H. W. Bush,

52. Regime Opposition
Democrat elected (43%) in the midst of new Republican regime
Tried to create a “Third Way” between outmoded Democratic policies and Reaganism
Failed in effort to create government health care program
Repositioned his policies after Republican take-over of House in 1994
Co-opted Republican polices like welfare reform and free trade
Despite impeachment effort, left office with high approval ratings
Bill Clinton,

53. Regime Articulation ???
Modification of Reaganism with “compassionate conservatism”
Avoid the “mistakes” of his father’s presidency
Aftermath of 9/11 attacks hint at a new Bush 43 regime, especially in anti-terrorism and the war in Iraq
Bush 43 leaves office discredited and very unpopular (disjunction?)
Articulation, construction, disjunction ??
Articulation with assertive approach toward antiterrorism
George W. Bush,

54. Regime Opposition ???
Campaigned by promising to build a new post-partisan political regime
Candidate Obama with the rhetoric of regime construction
Fought with obstructionist Republicans following mid-terms of 2010
Limited by Washington gridlock and divisiveness among American people
Followed a discredited Bush 43 but not necessarily the collapse of the Reagan regime
Barack Obama,

55. ????????
Regime articulator ???
Donald Trump, 2017-

56. Conclusion
Skowronek questions whether the possibility of a reconstructive presidency who creates a new long-lasting political regime still exists
Difficulty with Bush 43 and Obama presidencies that don’t quite “fit” his theory of political time
Not even sure that Reagan was a truly reconstructive president (in the same way as others)
Modern American politics and the 21st century presidency may have undercut Skowronek’s theory of political time
Let’s recognize the complexities, but not reject Skowronek’s theory yet

57. The End