Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

High Resolution Ocean and Ice Models for Climate

Published byReynard Gibbs Modified over 6 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "High Resolution Ocean and Ice Models for Climate"— Presentation transcript:

1 High Resolution Ocean and Ice Models for Climate
Phil Jones Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM) Los Alamos National Laboratory LA-UR

2 Change We Can Believe In
Climate change observed at global scales with increases of surface temperatures, sea level rise and decreasing snow cover IPCC 2007, 2002 Nobel Peace Prize 2007

3 We Are The Change CO2 – 379ppm in 2005 Methane
Exceeds values for last 650,000 years Fossil fuels primary source 6.4 Gt/year 1990s 7.2 Gt/year 2000s Land use (1.6 GtC/yr) Methane 1772 ppb 2005 (700 pre-ind) Agriculture is primary source ppm – parts/million Ppb – parts/billion GtC – billion (giga) tons Carbon

4 Climate Models as Tools
Integrate knowledge of climate system Used to understand and quantify feedbacks Provide information to policy makers on impacts, mitigation

5 Use of Climate Models Determine Causes, Attribution
Projection of Future Change Natural forcing + human forcing Natural forcing only – solar, volcanoes Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Fourth Assessment ( Solid black line is observational record Other lines are ensemble of model results Observations can only be explained by increased human influence. From Stott et al. 2006

6 The Question(s) If you had access to a petascale computing system, what would you do with it? When you get access to your petascale computing system, what will you do with it? When you get access to your [exa,zetta]scale computing system, will you be able to use it? And will you be happy?

7 Ready on Day One Ocean dynamics Resolving eddies Current/near future
Small spatial scales Long (millenial) time scales Resolving eddies accurate simulation of currents sea ice edge and deep water formation. Current/near future Resolving mesoscale eddies at century timescales Fully coupled w/ eddying ocean Exascales Higher vertical resolution for mixing, overflows, topo Higher horizontal resolution Non-hydrostatic

8 Fierce Urgency of Now – Decadal/Regional Prediction
Impacts at regional scales High Resolution 10 km (10x) Nested regional models Better regional info Better precip Better extremes Model improvements Dynamic vegetation Improved hydrology/ water cycle Ocean assimilation

9 Ice Sheets and Sea Level Rise
Greenland ice sheet melting observations from Krabill et al. 2004 Red indicates rapid melting 2007 rate highest observed Largest missing piece of physical climate in current models Needed for sea level rise prediction 6m of sea level rise if Greenland melts, 6m if W. Antarctic ice sheet melts Slow melt over 1000 years or more rapid? Threshold of no return? Small-scale ice sheet dynamics, ocean/ice interaction, disparate timescales Variable coastlines, topography Stephen Leatherman Gregory et al. 2004

10 Sea Ice Poles warm at least 2x faster Large ice feedbacks
NY Times, 10/1/07 Poles warm at least 2x faster Large ice feedbacks Ice free summer by 2050 Record low arctic ice in 2007 Impacts Ecosystems (polar bears, walrus) Oil, resource extraction Ocean thermohaline circulation Need mechanisms for faster ice melt (algae, cracks, etc.) Nearly ice-free summertime arctic predicted by CCSM between , much of it within a decade due to ice thinning combined with pulse of warm water input (M. Holland et al.)

11 Chemical/Biogeochemical Models
Coupling ocean biogeochemistry with extensive atmospheric chemistry and land biogeochemistry Carbon and sulfur cycles Needed to assess ability of oceans and land to sequester carbon Aerosol direct/indirect (reduced precipitation?) Projections with specified emissions Methane hydrates/clathrates Ocean acidification Engineered climate Many tracers 100x atm, 20x ocean Many reactions Metagenomics Flux of CO2 at ocean surface Red/yellow – CO2 leaving ocean Green/blue – ocean uptake of CO2 Coral bleaching

12 Abrupt change: Ocean Thermohaline Circulation
Carries large fraction of heat from equator to poles Driven by formation of cold, salty water in N. Atlantic and Antarctica Abrupt scenario: Large influx of fresh water due to ice melt, increased precipitation Prevents formation of dense water THC slows/shuts down in response Impacts on Europe, NE US and overall atmospheric circulation Implicated in past abrupt climate shifts Current models predict weakening, then recovery Implicit models/parameter continuation

13 Extreme Events and Impacts
Extremes Hurricanse, droughts, high/low temps, frost dates, etc. Global forcing at large scale High resolution for dynamics Coastal models for impacts Connections to economic, infrastructure models Falwell effect? – social models Statistics at the tails of distribution – model distributions

14 Assessments More ensembles Decadal prediction
Integrated ensembles 2-10x Decadal prediction Data assimilation 3-10x? Massive data stream Error propagation/estimation Rapid turnaround to respond to policy-maker queries Low-order surrogate models

15 Computing needs (1010-1012) Resolution (103-105) Completeness (102)
x100 horiz, x10 timestep, x5-10 vert Regional prediction (10km) Eddy resolving ocean (< 10km) Completeness (102) Biogeochem ( tracers, interactions) Ice sheets Fidelity (102) Better cloud processes, dynamic land, etc. Increase length/number of ensembles (103) Run length (x100) Number of scenarios/ensembles (x10) Data assimilation (3-10x) Data requirements have similar factors 35 TB currently, distributed More for assimilation Courtesy L. Buja

16 Terror Cells and other Future Architectures
Large processor counts Hybrids, power envelope Difficulties due to low memory/bandwidth No kernel Increased work per grid point, time integration Unknown future Machines Algorithms (50/50 rule) Abstractions (adaptation strategies) Programming models, non-traditional approaches

17 Scaling to Large Processor Counts
Effective for high resolution, multiple scenarios…but can’t scale time (1hr to 7 min)

18 Algorithm Changes Time integration Smarter resolution
Can’t scale your way out Implicit/alternative time stepping Smarter resolution Existing models Regional downscaling

19 Decision Tools Example Application: Climate Impacts on
Western US Energy and Water Infrastructure Global Climate Models Future climate driven by emissions scenarios and assumptions of technology insertion, human behavior and policy implementation. Regional-scale impacts Regional models with temporal and spatial resolution appropriate for coupling to infrastructure systems of interest. Infrastructure impacts Driven by regional climate data of temperature, water availability, etc. to identify diverse set of vulnerabilities and test mitigation strategies. Uncertainty quantification

Download ppt "High Resolution Ocean and Ice Models for Climate"

Similar presentations

WCRP polar climate predictability initiative Vladimir Ryabinin www.wcrp-climate.org.

WCRP polar climate predictability initiative Vladimir Ryabinin
Powering our future with weather, climate and water A large part of my presentation will address Extreme events A few words on the meeting organized yesterday.

Powering our future with weather, climate and water A large part of my presentation will address Extreme events A few words on the meeting organized yesterday.
Climate Change: Science, Impacts, Risks and Response Scientific Basis for Human Induced Climate Change Jagadish Shukla Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic.

Climate Change: Science, Impacts, Risks and Response Scientific Basis for Human Induced Climate Change Jagadish Shukla Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic.
CMIP5: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5

CMIP5: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
Scaling Laws, Scale Invariance, and Climate Prediction

Scaling Laws, Scale Invariance, and Climate Prediction
Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Important Concerns: Potential greenhouse warming (CO 2, CH 4 ) and ecosystem interactions with climate Carbon management (e.g.,

Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Important Concerns: Potential greenhouse warming (CO 2, CH 4 ) and ecosystem interactions with climate Carbon management (e.g.,
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.
PROFESSOR A.E. HILL DIRECTOR NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE, SOUTHAMPTON UK OCEANS AND GLOBAL CHANGE.

PROFESSOR A.E. HILL DIRECTOR NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE, SOUTHAMPTON UK OCEANS AND GLOBAL CHANGE.
Climate modeling Current state of climate knowledge – What does the historical data (temperature, CO 2, etc) tell us – What are trends in the current observational.

Climate modeling Current state of climate knowledge – What does the historical data (temperature, CO 2, etc) tell us – What are trends in the current observational.
The Ocean’s Role in Climate Change. Responding to the Kyoto Protocol Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF) Initiatives Reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Reduce.

The Ocean’s Role in Climate Change. Responding to the Kyoto Protocol Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF) Initiatives Reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Reduce.
MET 112 Global Climate Change - Lecture 11 Future Predictions Craig Clements San Jose State University.

MET 112 Global Climate Change - Lecture 11 Future Predictions Craig Clements San Jose State University.
Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.

Anthropocene Introduction to Meteorology, spring 2011 Observations –Trace gases –Temperature, land and ocean –Precipitation –Sea level Attribution Models.
B1 -Biogeochemical ANL - Townhall V. Rao Kotamarthi.

B1 -Biogeochemical ANL - Townhall V. Rao Kotamarthi.
Ocean Response to Global Warming William Curry Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Wallace Stegner Center March 3, 2006.

Ocean Response to Global Warming William Curry Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Wallace Stegner Center March 3, 2006.
4. Models of the climate system. Earth’s Climate System Sun IceOceanLand Sub-surface Earth Atmosphere Climate model components.

4. Models of the climate system. Earth’s Climate System Sun IceOceanLand Sub-surface Earth Atmosphere Climate model components.
5. Future climate predictions Global average temperature and sea-level are projected to rise under all IPCC scenarios Temperature: +1.8°C (B1) to +4.0°C.

5. Future climate predictions Global average temperature and sea-level are projected to rise under all IPCC scenarios Temperature: +1.8°C (B1) to +4.0°C.
US CLIVAR Themes. Guided by a set of questions that will be addressed/assessed as a concluding theme action by US CLIVAR Concern a broad topical area.

US CLIVAR Themes. Guided by a set of questions that will be addressed/assessed as a concluding theme action by US CLIVAR Concern a broad topical area.
Why Climate Modelers Think We Need a Really, Really Big Computer Phil Jones Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM) Climate Change Prediction Program.

Why Climate Modelers Think We Need a Really, Really Big Computer Phil Jones Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling (COSIM) Climate Change Prediction Program.
The Future of Arctic Sea Ice Authors: Wieslaw Maslowski, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Matthew Higgins, and Andrew Roberts Brian Rosa – Atmospheric Sciences.

The Future of Arctic Sea Ice Authors: Wieslaw Maslowski, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Matthew Higgins, and Andrew Roberts Brian Rosa – Atmospheric Sciences.
European capacity building initiativeecbi Climate Change: an Introduction ecbi Workshops 2007 Claire N Parker Environmental Policy Consultant european.

European capacity building initiativeecbi Climate Change: an Introduction ecbi Workshops 2007 Claire N Parker Environmental Policy Consultant european.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google