1. The World in 2000 Pax-Americana
End of History (Triumph of capitalist democracy)
George H.W. Bush, “Out of these troubled times a new world order can emerge: a new era, freer from the threat of terror.”

2. Origins of the Jihad Soviet – Afghan War
1979 Following an uprising against the government the Soviet Union intervenes in Afghanistan
1000s of fighters travel from around the world to fight against the USSR

3. 1998 Al Qaeda Fatwa
The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies—civilians and military—is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it, in order to liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque [in Jerusalem] and the holy mosque [in Mecca] from their grip, and in order for their armies to move out of all the lands of Islam, defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim. This is in accordance with the words of Almighty Allah, 'and fight the pagans all together as they fight you all together,' and 'fight them until there is no more tumult or oppression, and there prevail justice and faith in Allah‘

4. Objectives Unity and Legitimacy
(1) A unified Islamic community ruled by religiously sanctioned governance is the solution to all grievances
(2) The US and the international system are major obstacles to that realisation.

5. Global War on Terror Eradicate terror threats globally
Build alliances with other states to such ends
Target state sponsored terror; Iran, Iraq, Syria
Eliminate key leaders; bin Laden, Zarqawi, Omar
Defeat terror organisations; al Qaeda
Eliminate terror sanctuaries; Afghanistan, Sudan
Strengthen weak and failing states
Integrate domestic and international security and intelligence; Dept of Homeland Security

6. With us or against us? November 2001
"A coalition partner must do more than just express sympathy, a coalition partner must perform.“
"Over time it's going to be important for nations to know they will be held accountable for inactivity.“
"You're either with us or against us in the fight against terror."

7. Axis of Evil January 2002
North Korea "A regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction, while starving its citizens.”
Iran "aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror, while an unelected few repress the Iranian people's hope for freedom."
Iraq “continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror.
Syria, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Myanmar, Libya, Cuba “Outposts of Tyranny”

8. Justifications for War
Weapons of mass destruction
Connections with al Qaeda
Post 9/11 political environment
Marketing the war

9. United Nations Security Council
A war mandate would require a super majority 9 of 15 with no veto from permanent members
UK - primary US supporter
France - would veto military intervention
Russia - would support a US-led war if things did not change
China - continued inspections.

10. Coalition of the Willing
48 Countries
Troops: US, UK, Poland, Australia
Italy, Spain, Denmark strategic and air support
Kurdistan Regional Government
Turkey refused coalition access to its air space

11. Invasion Coalition Iraq US (148,000) UK (45,000) 500,000 Troops
Australia (2,000) Poland (194) Peshmerga (70,000)
M1A1 Abrams Tanks
F-117 Stealth bombers
AWACS Guidance Systems
500,000 Troops
650,000 reserves
Soviet T-72 Tanks
Aircraft disassembled and buried

12. March 20 air and ground operations commence
April 10 fall of Baghdad
May 1 Bush declares combat operations over
July 22: Uday and Qusay Hussein killed
September 3: First post-Saddam government
October/ November beginnings of large scale Sunni and Shi’ite insurgency

13. Trial and Execution Convicted of the Dujail Massacre 1982
Anfal Campaign, Iran–Iraq War, invasion of Kuwait; war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide
Saddam rejects legitimacy of the court
Judge, “State your name.”
Saddam, "You are an Iraqi, you know who I am.“
Trial criticized by rights groups as a ‘Kangaroo Court”

14. DAESH Al QAEDA Iraq and Syria Libya Egypt (Sinai) Saudi Arabia Yemen
3Algeria
Afghanistan-Pakistan
Nigeria
North Caucasus
Somalia
Philippines
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
Al-Qaeda in Palestine
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula Al-Qaeda in Somalia
Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
Khorasan Group
Al-Qaeda in Sinai Peninsula
Al-Qaeda Kurdish Battalions
Al Qaeda in the Lands Beyond the Sahel Al-Qaeda in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Al-Qaeda in Spain
50-75K

15. Is the world a safer place?
Al Qaeda decentralized but still relevant, especially in Yemen
Islamic State in decline but still relevant
No major attacks in US
But terrorism in Europe has increased
Russia becoming prominent target
Boko Haram, al Shabaab in decline but AQIM still relevant
Libya, Iraq, Syria, Yemen are failed states
South Asia increasingly becoming jihadist stronghold
Sectarianism in the ME stronger