1. GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009
Final Version,

2. GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
Table of contents
Background
Results
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

3. GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
Background
GTE Winter Outlook presented to GCG on 25 October 2007, results of additional analyses were presented to GCG on 8 January 2008
Analyze at EU level
EU capacity / demand balance
Integrated flow patterns
Member State capacity / demand balances
for
Normal cold conditions
Exceptional cold conditions
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

4. GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
Table of contents
Background
Results
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

5. GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
Participating countries
Up-to-date data received from 23 countries
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and United Kingdom
For 2 countries data provided in 2007 for the Winter Outlook 2007/2008 was used
Greece and Lithuania
Assumptions taken for exit points to countries for which no data was received (within or outside EU)
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

6. Involved countries / data provision
EU member – data
Non EU member - data
Non EU member – exit capacity data
EU member – data of 2007
EU member – no data
Non EU member
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

7. EU capacity / demand balance
(GWh /d)
Total capacity connected with import
12.286
Total capacity connected with LNG
4.464
Total national production
8.633
Total storage
12.748
38.131
Total Market (Normal cold conditions)
28.442
Total Market (Exceptional cold conditions)
35.400
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version 7

8. GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
Results
Integrated EU flow patterns
 normal cold conditions *
 exceptional cold conditions *
Capacity / demand balances
* Exceptional cold conditions and normal cold conditions as defined in the individual Member States.
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

9. Integrated EU flow patterns
Derivation of an integrated EU flow pattern, taking into account the following conditions:
Entry flows from another country ≤ IP capacity at entry points
Flows from national production ≤ national production past flows*
Flows from storages ≤ storage send out capacity**
Exit flows to another country = national intakes – mkt. demand
* taking into account the depletion of production fields
** taking into account the decrease of storage performance during winter
For the avoidance of doubt:
The integrated flow patterns represent hypothetical cases just for the purposes of this Winter Outlook;
The integrated flow patterns of the Winter Outlook 2008/2009 are not directly comparable with those of the Winter Outlook 2007/2008 as the method for deriving the flow patterns differs
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

10. GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
Capacity / demand balances +
IP capacity at entry points* +
National production past flows** +
Storage send out capacity*** -
Capacity usage to other countries
For each country
Market demand forecast -
normal cold conditions
exceptional cold conditions
Capacity / demand balance =
normal cold conditions
exceptional cold conditions
* lesser of entry capacity and upstream exit capacity at the IP
** taking into account the depletion of production fields
*** taking into account the decrease of storage performance during winter
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

11. Integrated EU flow pattern – normal cold conditions
NP:79% ST:79%
79% N
FIN
Entry/Exit flows from/to non EU countries
Entry/Exit flows between EU countries
NP:
ST:
Flows from National Production
Flows from Storage
FIGURE LEGEND
* IP capacities are aggregated values (lesser of rule applies) %
Utilization ratio of the infrastructure
Utilization ratio <= max reference value
Utilization ratio > max reference value S
ST:65%
91%
EST IE
67%
82%
79% LV UK
NP:82%
ST:82%
65%
85% LT
NP:82%
ST:82%
NP:77%
ST:77% DK
83%
70%
78%
83%
70% BY NL
70% PL
77%
13%
NP:67 %
ST:67%
70%
70%
77%
83% CZ
ST:80% UA
ST:83%
88% B
56%
56% D
70%
80%
ST:88%
LUX
69%
NP:70%
ST:70% SK
100%
69%
89% AU
80%
56%
69%
75%
83%
78%
NP:89%
ST:89%
NP:80%
ST:80% HU CH RO
NP:69%
ST:69%
83%
96%
NP:100%
ST:100% F
78%
83%
96% SI
100%
73% BG
NP:83%
ST:83%
83%
NP:78%
ST:78% RS
ST:
59% I
40%
ST:
93% HR
ST:83% P ES GR
59%
78%
40%
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
59%
83%

12. Integrated EU flow pattern – normal cold conditions
NP:79% ST:79%
79% N
FIN S
ST:65%
91%
EST IE
67%
82%
79% LV UK
NP:82%
ST:82%
65%
85% LT
NP:82%
ST:82%
NP:77%
ST:77% DK
83%
70%
78%
83%
70% BY NL
70% PL
77%
13%
NP:67 %
ST:67%
70%
70%
77%
83% CZ
ST:80% UA
ST:83%
88% B
56%
56% D
70%
80%
ST:88%
LUX
69%
NP:70%
ST:70% SK
100%
69%
89% AU
80%
56%
69%
75%
83%
78%
NP:89%
ST:89%
NP:80%
ST:80% HU CH RO
NP:69%
ST:69%
83%
96%
NP:100%
ST:100% F
78%
83%
96% SI
100%
73% BG
NP:83%
ST:83%
83%
NP:78%
ST:78% RS
ST:
59% I
40%
ST:
93% HR
ST:83% P ES GR
59%
78%
40%
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
59%
83%

13. GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
Integrated EU flow pattern – exceptional cold conditions
NP:96% ST:96%
96% N
FIN
Entry/Exit flows from/to non EU countries
Entry/Exit flows between EU countries
NP:
ST:
Flows from National Production
Flows from Storage
FIGURE LEGEND
* IP capacities are aggregated values (lesser of rule applies) %
Utilization ratio of the infrastructure
Utilization ratio <= max reference value
Utilization ratio > max reference value S
ST:
71%
96%
EST IE IE
49%
96%
87% LV
NP:91%
ST:91%
NP:87%
ST:87%
71%
94% UK LT DK
NP:96%
ST:96%
96%
96%
87%
96% BY
88% NL
92% PL 9%
96%
NP:96%
ST:96%
72%
95%
96%
96% CZ
ST:96% UA
ST:96%
98% B
58%
58%
44%
96%
ST:98% D
86%
LUX
NP:96%
ST:96% SK
100%
86%
96% AU
93%
58%
80%
75%
99%
99%
NP:96%
ST:96%
NP:93%
ST:93% HU CH RO
NP:86%
ST:86%
99%
NP:100%
ST:100% F
98%
91%
99%
99% SI
100%
73% BU
90%
NP:91%
ST:91%
NP:99%
ST:99%
ST:
67% I RS
42%
ST: HR
93%
ST:90% P ES GR
67%
99%
42%
90%
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
67%

14. GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
Integrated EU flow pattern – exceptional cold conditions
NP:96% ST:96%
96% N
FIN S
ST:
71%
96%
EST IE IE
49%
96%
87% LV
NP:91%
ST:91%
NP:87%
ST:87%
71%
94% UK LT DK
NP:96%
ST:96%
96%
96%
87%
96% BY
88% NL PL 9%
92%
96%
NP:96%
ST:96%
72%
95%
96%
96% CZ
ST:96% UA
ST:96%
98% B
58%
58% D
44%
96%
ST:98%
86%
LUX
NP:96%
ST:96% SK
100%
86%
96% AU
93%
58%
80%
75%
99%
99%
NP:96%
ST:96%
NP:93%
ST:93% HU CH RO
NP:86%
ST:86%
99%
NP:100%
ST:100% F
98%
91%
99%
99% SI
100%
73% BU
90%
NP:91%
ST:91%
NP:99%
ST:99%
ST:
67% I RS
42%
ST: HR
93%
ST:90% P ES GR
67%
99%
42%
90%
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
67%

15. Normal cold conditions – capacity / demand balances
91%
Balance > 100%
65%
82%
82%
68%
79%
67%
70%
77%
83%
56%
80%
88%
69%
83%
89%
75%
96%
80%
78%
59%
83%
83%
40%
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version 15

16. Normal cold conditions vs. Exceptional cold conditions
No difference
(E/N) ≤ 10%
10% < (E/N) < 30%
(E/N) ≥ 30%
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

17. Exceptional cold conditions – capacity / demand balances
96%
Balance > 105%
71%
91%
87%
73%
96%
96%
96%
96%
96%
58%
96%
98%
86%
99%
96%
100%
99%
93%
99%
67%
90%
91%
42%
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version

18. GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version
Key findings
Integrated flow patterns show functioning capacity / demand balances both in normal cold and exceptional cold conditions
Considerable flexibility in normal cold conditions and in several countries even in exceptional cold conditions
GTE+ as the predecessor of ENTSOG committed to work in close cooperation with stakeholders on (among others):
European Winter Outlooks 08/09 and 09/10
European 10 Year Network Development Statement
GTE+ Winter Outlook 2008/2009, Final Version