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Economic Outlook 2016 Robert Carreira, Ph.D.
CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH SIERRA VISTA Economic Outlook 2016 Robert Carreira, Ph.D.
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Real GDP Growth (%) * AZ Q1-3 only
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Jobs United States Arizona Cochise County 138.4 mil 2.69 mil 39,300
Pre-Recession High 138.4 mil (Jan 08) 2.69 mil (Oct 07) 39,300 (Jun 08) Recessionary Low 129.7 mil (Feb 10) 2.37 mil (Sep 10) 33,900 (Jul 13) Recessionary Job Losses -8.7 mil -6.3% -313,500 -11.7% -5,400 -13.7% Current * 143.8 mil 34,200 From High +5.3 million 3.9% +2,300 0.1% -5,100 -13.0% From Low +14.0 mil 10.8% +316,000 13.3% 300 0.9% * U.S. March 2016; AZ & CC February 2016
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Cochise County Jobs by Industry
Peak Current (Feb 2016) Change from Peak Change from Peak (%) Construction and Mining 2,900 (Jun 2006) 1,200 -1,700 -58.6% Manufacturing 900 (Oct 2008) 500 -400 -44.4% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 7,100 (Dec 2007) 5,900 -1,200 -16.9% Information 700 (Mar 2011) -200 -28.6% Financial Activities 1,100 (Dec 2008) 1,000 -100 -10.0% Professional and Business Services 6,200 (Jan 2010) 3,800 -2,400 -38.7% Educational and Health Services 5,000 (Sep 2012) 4,800 -4.0% Leisure and Hospitality 4,300 (Apr 2008) 4,000 -300 -7.0% Other Services (Mar 2006) 600 -500 -45.5% Federal Government 6,000 (Aug 2011) -1,000 -16.7% State and Local Government 7,700 (Jun 2008) 6,900 -800 -10.4%
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Unemployment 4.4% 10.0% 5.5% 5.0% 3.7% 11.2% 6.5% 3.5% 10.2% 7.6% 6.3%
Pre- Recession Low Recessionary High One Year Ago Current* United States 4.4% (May 2007) 10.0% (Oct 2009) 5.5% 5.0% Arizona 3.7% (Jul 2007) 11.2% (Dec 2009) 6.5% Cochise County 3.5% 10.2% (Jun 2011) 7.6% 6.3% Sierra Vista 2.0% 8.4% 7.4% 5.7% * U.S. March 2016; AZ & CC February 2016; SV December 2015
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Local Labor Market Outlook
Upside Bottom must be around here somewhere Fort Huachuca—worst is likely over (for now) Canyon Vista Medical Center Economic development efforts Downside Quite possibly not at the bottom
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Retail Sales Growth (%)
Sierra Vista Cochise County Arizona 2016* 1.8 -10.3 2.1 2015 4.9 2.4 8.8 2014 -1.6 -1.0 1.9 2013 3.5 1.5 7.3 2012 4.5 2.5 2011 -5.5 -1.2 7.1 2010 -1.5 -4.8 -3.1 2009 -1.4 -4.2 -10.7 2008 -6.6 -6.5 -13.1 2007 2.6 -1.3 4.3 Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U *January only
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Restaurant & Bar Sales Growth (%)
Sierra Vista Cochise County Arizona 2016* 12.6 10.8 16.0 2015 7.3 3.9 5.1 2014 0.1 1.4 2013 -5.3 -0.5 2.2 2012 -9.5 -4.4 5.0 2011 2.8 -0.2 2.1 2010 3.1 0.0 1.8 2009 0.3 -5.4 2008 -2.0 0.2 -6.2 2007 2.9 Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U *January only
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Accommodations Sales Growth (%)
Sierra Vista Cochise County Arizona 2016* 5.9 -9.3 -9.2 2015 20.4 8.2 12.2 2014 17.4 -0.6 9.9 2013 -28.3 -12.2 0.4 2012 -28.2 -17.2 1.7 2011 -10.1 -13.1 2.0 2010 11.0 8.3 0.8 2009 -2.0 -9.0 -16.5 2008 19.4 1.0 -8.4 2007 21.1 19.7 1.4 Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U *January only
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Sales Outlook Retail Restaurant & Bar Accommodation
Sierra Vista: solid rebound Countywide: instability, but positive outlook Restaurant & Bar Sierra Vista: New openings have given boost (but not likely sustainable) Countywide: Increased tourism will help Accommodation Sierra Vista: Likely decline from last year’s strong growth Countywide: Increased tourism will give a boost
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Home Sales (site-built only)
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Median Home Price (site-built only)
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Foreclosures (% of sales; site-built)
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New Home Construction
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Sierra Vista New Home Construction
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New Commercial Construction (Sierra Vista)
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Real Estate & Construction Outlook
Foreclosures Upward pressure on sales Downward pressure on prices Dampened demand for new construction Population declines = downward pressure on sales & new construction Tribute Villages at Vigneto
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Conclusion Recession Downside Upside
Kept out of recession by Fort Huachuca Cochise County recession began in 2011 Downside Government declines at all levels Population losses Upside Canyon Vista Medical Center Improving state and national economies will help tourism Foreclosures and home values improving Economic development efforts
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THE END CochiseEconomy.com
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