1. Economic Outlook 2016 Robert Carreira, Ph.D.
CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH
SIERRA VISTA
Economic Outlook 2016
Robert Carreira, Ph.D.

2. Real GDP Growth (%)
* AZ Q1-3 only

3. Jobs United States Arizona Cochise County 138.4 mil 2.69 mil 39,300
Pre-Recession High
138.4 mil
(Jan 08)
2.69 mil
(Oct 07)
39,300
(Jun 08)
Recessionary Low
129.7 mil
(Feb 10)
2.37 mil
(Sep 10)
33,900
(Jul 13)
Recessionary Job Losses
-8.7 mil
-6.3%
-313,500
-11.7%
-5,400
-13.7%
Current *
143.8 mil
34,200
From High
+5.3 million
3.9%
+2,300
0.1%
-5,100
-13.0%
From Low
+14.0 mil
10.8%
+316,000
13.3%
300
0.9%
* U.S. March 2016; AZ & CC February 2016

4. Cochise County Jobs by Industry
Peak
Current
(Feb 2016)
Change from Peak
Change from Peak (%)
Construction and Mining
2,900
(Jun 2006)
1,200
-1,700
-58.6%
Manufacturing
900
(Oct 2008)
500
-400
-44.4%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
7,100
(Dec 2007)
5,900
-1,200
-16.9%
Information
700
(Mar 2011)
-200
-28.6%
Financial Activities
1,100
(Dec 2008)
1,000
-100
-10.0%
Professional and Business Services
6,200
(Jan 2010)
3,800
-2,400
-38.7%
Educational and Health Services
5,000
(Sep 2012)
4,800
-4.0%
Leisure and Hospitality
4,300
(Apr 2008)
4,000
-300
-7.0%
Other Services
(Mar 2006)
600
-500
-45.5%
Federal Government
6,000
(Aug 2011)
-1,000
-16.7%
State and Local Government
7,700
(Jun 2008)
6,900
-800
-10.4%

5. Unemployment 4.4% 10.0% 5.5% 5.0% 3.7% 11.2% 6.5% 3.5% 10.2% 7.6% 6.3%
Pre-
Recession Low
Recessionary High
One Year Ago
Current*
United States
4.4%
(May 2007)
10.0%
(Oct 2009)
5.5%
5.0%
Arizona
3.7%
(Jul 2007)
11.2%
(Dec 2009)
6.5%
Cochise County
3.5%
10.2%
(Jun 2011)
7.6%
6.3%
Sierra Vista
2.0%
8.4%
7.4%
5.7%
* U.S. March 2016; AZ & CC February 2016; SV December 2015

6. Local Labor Market Outlook
Upside
Bottom must be around here somewhere
Fort Huachuca—worst is likely over (for now)
Canyon Vista Medical Center
Economic development efforts
Downside
Quite possibly not at the bottom

7. Retail Sales Growth (%)
Sierra Vista
Cochise County
Arizona
2016*
1.8
-10.3
2.1
2015
4.9
2.4
8.8
2014
-1.6
-1.0
1.9
2013
3.5
1.5
7.3
2012
4.5
2.5
2011
-5.5
-1.2
7.1
2010
-1.5
-4.8
-3.1
2009
-1.4
-4.2
-10.7
2008
-6.6
-6.5
-13.1
2007
2.6
-1.3
4.3
Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U *January only

8. Restaurant & Bar Sales Growth (%)
Sierra Vista
Cochise County
Arizona
2016*
12.6
10.8
16.0
2015
7.3
3.9
5.1
2014
0.1
1.4
2013
-5.3
-0.5
2.2
2012
-9.5
-4.4
5.0
2011
2.8
-0.2
2.1
2010
3.1
0.0
1.8
2009
0.3
-5.4
2008
-2.0
0.2
-6.2
2007
2.9
Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U *January only

9. Accommodations Sales Growth (%)
Sierra Vista
Cochise County
Arizona
2016*
5.9
-9.3
-9.2
2015
20.4
8.2
12.2
2014
17.4
-0.6
9.9
2013
-28.3
-12.2
0.4
2012
-28.2
-17.2
1.7
2011
-10.1
-13.1
2.0
2010
11.0
8.3
0.8
2009
-2.0
-9.0
-16.5
2008
19.4
1.0
-8.4
2007
21.1
19.7
1.4
Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U *January only

10. Sales Outlook Retail Restaurant & Bar Accommodation
Sierra Vista: solid rebound
Countywide: instability, but positive outlook
Restaurant & Bar
Sierra Vista: New openings have given boost (but not likely sustainable)
Countywide: Increased tourism will help
Accommodation
Sierra Vista: Likely decline from last year’s strong growth
Countywide: Increased tourism will give a boost

11. Home Sales (site-built only)

12. Median Home Price (site-built only)

13. Foreclosures (% of sales; site-built)

14. New Home Construction

15. Sierra Vista New Home Construction

16. New Commercial Construction (Sierra Vista)

17. Real Estate & Construction Outlook
Foreclosures
Upward pressure on sales
Downward pressure on prices
Dampened demand for new construction
Population declines = downward pressure on sales & new construction
Tribute
Villages at Vigneto

18. Conclusion Recession Downside Upside
Kept out of recession by Fort Huachuca
Cochise County recession began in 2011
Downside
Government declines at all levels
Population losses
Upside
Canyon Vista Medical Center
Improving state and national economies will help tourism
Foreclosures and home values improving
Economic development efforts

19. THE END
CochiseEconomy.com