1. Trucking over the Medium Term: Thoughts and Projections
Arnold Maltz, Ph.D.
Supply Chain Management
W.P. Carey School of Business
Arizona State University
9/20/2018
IFTA

2. Assumptions
Economic growth continues at about the current pace, or somewhat slower.
As populations age, the mix of products demanded may change, and then...
Globalization may result in large wealth transfer
The effects of retirement????
The pace of infrastructure improvement remains relatively slow.
Environmental concerns stay strong.
“NIMBY” continues as a potent force.
Technological change (e.g. new engines/fuels) is not “disruptive”.
9/20/2018
IFTA

3. Trucking and GDP: So Far
Source: “ The U. S. Truck Driver Shortage: Analysis and Forecasts,”
Global Insight, Inc. for the American Trucking Associations, May 2005
9/20/2018
IFTA

4. Consensus Forecasts (BTS 2003)
Table 2-5: Comparison of Domestic Freight Demand Forecasts
Historic Data
Forecasts (compound annual growth rate)
(ann. growth)
BTS
AASHTO
ATA
ICF
(ton-miles)
(tons)
Truck
3.9%a
2.6% a
2.3%
2.2%
2.5%
Rail
3.6%
0.2%
1.9%
1.7%
2.0%
Water
-2.5%
0.7%
1.6%
Air
5.2%
3.1%
5.7%
4.4%
4.0%
Note a: Intercity truck only. Source: Historic data from BTS, National Transportation Statistics 2003; forecasts from sources described in report text.

5. Projected Truck Patterns
9/20/2018
IFTA

6. The Wild Cards (?) Fuel costs Driver shortages
Accelerating imports/marine competition
Road infrastructure
Rail improvements
Security
9/20/2018
IFTA

7. The Driver Shortage
“The U. S. Truck Driver Shortage: Analysis and Insights,” by Global Insights
for the American Trucking Associations, May, 2005
9/20/2018
IFTA

8. My Opinion Slow shift in share to rail/intermodal
1-3 points in ton-miles by 2020
Redistribution to other than California ports
Inland port development
Shorter length of haul for trucks.
Significant import of Mexican drivers and, possibly, Mexican trucking companies.
Operational efficiency continues to improve, based on technology.
9/20/2018
IFTA