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Chapter 1 Overview of e-commerce Framework
Amsterdam Athens Cambridge Frankfurt Hong Kong Istanbul Johannesburg London Los Angeles Madrid Manila Milan Moscow Munich New Delhi New York Paris São Paulo Seoul Singapore Stockholm Tel Aviv Tokyo Toronto Zurich Use the Notes Page View for a more in-depth, point-counterpoint, or comparative discussion in each slide overview/outline. Copyright © 2000 by Monitor Company, Inc. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means — electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise — without the permission of Monitor Company. This document provides an outline of a presentation and is incomplete without the accompanying oral commentary and discussion. COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL
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What are the distinct categories of e-commerce?
Questions What is e-commerce? What are the distinct categories of e-commerce? How is e-commerce different from traditional commerce? Why study e-commerce? What is the e-commerce decision-making process? .
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e-commerce Strategy Process
Strategic Framework e-commerce Strategy Process Framing the market Defining the business model Customer interface Market communications Branding, implementation, and evaluation These are the beginning chapters of the book, after the overview.
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e-commerce Platforms Strategic Framework Network infrastructure
Convergence of media Platforms are changing as quickly as technology is changing. As of the end of 2000, there are majors moves by Apple, Microsoft, and contributors to Linux to redefine the Graphical User Interface (GUI), all radically.
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What is e-commerce? Exchanged of digitized information
Technology-enabled transactions Technology-mediated relationships Intra- and Inter-organizational activities Exchanged of digitized information between parties Technology-enabled transactions Customer Interfaces Technology-mediated relationships market space managed or mediated largely by technology Intra- and Inter-organizational activities supporting exchange
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Definition e-commerce can be formally defined as… technology-mediated exchanged between parties (individuals, organizations, or both) as well as the electronically based intra- or inter-organizational activities that facilitate such exchanges. Definitions such as this are essential to ensure that discussions are grounded on the same definitions.
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Distinct Categories B-2-B
Business-to-Business (B-2-B) New cooperation, merger, consortiums Business-to-Business (B-2-B) Purchasing Procurement Supplier management Inventory management Channel management Sales activities Payment management Service Support New cooperation, merger, consortiums
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Distinct Categories B-2-C
Business-to-Consumer (B-2C) Front office frequently tracked Business-to-Consumer (B-2C) Amazon Yahoo! Schwab.com Front office frequently tracked
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Distinct Categories C-2-C
Consumer-to-Consumer (C-2-C) Between and among Auction exchanges Consumer-to-Consumer (C-2-C) e-Bay Monster.com ICQ Yahoo! Personals Between and among Auction exchanges
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Distinct Categories C-t-B
Consumer-to-Business (C-2-B) Economically motivated or social advocacy Consumer-to-Business (C-2-B) Mercata.com voxcap.com Economically motivated or social advocacy
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Four Categories of e-commerce Business originating from...
Consumers Business B2B C2B And selling to... This is a good visual placement of the four parts of e-commerce. Consumers B2C C2C
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e-commerce / Traditional Commerce
Core strategic decisions are technology-based Real-time competitive responsiveness 24 X 7 Technology and people’s ability to adapt to the newer technology are still critical to the solution. As of the end of 2000, Microsoft’s new features in Microsoft® Office 2000 where largely not adapted by the business community.
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Technology-Based Customer Interface
Screen-to-face interaction Monitors ATMs PDAs WAP Screen-to-face interaction Monitors ATMs PDAs Palms Handsprings Blueberrys WAP DoCoMo iMode Nokia 7110 Potential to increase sales and decrease costs Interface failure costs organizational and technology costs PDAs - Personal digital assistants
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Technology-Based Customer Interface
Screen-to-face interaction sales costs organizational and technology costs Screen-to-face interaction Monitors ATMs PDAs Palms Handsprings Blueberrys WAP DoCoMo iMode Nokia 7110 Potential to increase sales and decrease costs Interface failure costs organizational and technology costs PDAs - Personal digital assistants
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Customer Interaction Customer Time controlled by customer Seller
Entices, influences, and targets Uses history and demographics The key is that the more knowledge the customer has, the faster the old paradigm of “make it and marketing will make them come” is thrown out as a viable model in the New economy. Networked customers tend to be more knowledgeable customers, because of the increasing speed with which information is easily obtained.
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Customer Behavior Third-party measurement firms
Extensive tracking capabilities Real-time financial estimates Third-party measurement firms Vividence Accrue Tracking capabilities length of stays page views on a site contents of wish lists shopping carts purchases dollar amounts of purchases repeat purchases conversion rates of visitors who have completed transactions other metrics Real-time financials click-throughs and yields to purchase
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Network Economics Metcalf’s Law
the value of a network is “n” squared being the number of nodes on the network Network economics positive feedback increased returns Metcalf’s Law the value of a network is “n” squared being the number of nodes on the network Network economics positive feedback increased returns word-of-mouth (WOM) viral marketing in a highly networked environment is persuaded to pass on a marketing message to several participants, spreading quickly ICQ an instant messaging system
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Nontraditional Performance Metrics and Emergent Valuation Models
No widely acceptable methods to measure e-commerce business performance Historic measurements not full measurements Some new methods are being devised No widely acceptable methods to evaluate and track the progress of e-commerce business calculate the economic value of an e-commerce business Historic measurements cash flow derivative of cash flow market capitalization standard metrics to judge basic business performance under debate Some new methods such as real options valuation yield accuracy observed valuations
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Point Counterpoint: Valuations - Do they or don’t they make sense?
Valuations Make Sense Valuations Do Not Make Sense Increased focus on path to profitability and revenue Uncertainty leading to wide fluctuations Many companies do not demonstrate profits for a long period of time There is an inconsistency in the valuation of on-line and off-line companies Techniques such as real options valuation yield observed valuations Investors are investing on valuations Network economics and information economics create highly profitable companies Valuations make sense: After the April 2000 NASDAQ slump, there has been an increased focus on path to profitability and revenue Lines are beginning to get drawn between winners and losers Techniques such as real options valuation yield observed valuations Investors are placing hundreds of billions of their money based on valuations Network economics and information economics will combine to create highly profitable companies that dominate their industries Valuations do not make sense: There is a high level of uncertainty leading to wide fluctuations NASDAQ fell by 30% in April 2000 Many companies do not demonstrate profits for a long period of time, making it hard to value them There is an inconsistency between assumptions made in the valuation of on-line and off-line companies On-line companies tend to assume high market share growth and not as severe impact of competition There is often a “bending” of the accounting rules by on-line companies Valuations are based on the number of customers and make the assumption that the economics of “monetizing” them will remain favorable Many stocks tend to be moved by momentum Can be a “bending” of the accounting rules by on-line companies Valuations are based the assumption that the economics of “monetizing” them will remain favorable Many stocks tend to be moved by momentum
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Growth in Number of Internet Users
U.S. Online Population Forecasts by Researcher Population (Millions) It is significant to study e-commerce because it combines the study of both industry and economic structure, wealth creation, and social structure considerations. This chart illustrates the projected growth of Internet use through the year 2003. These figures suggest that % of the United States will be online. Other focuses such as B-2-C and B-2-B project similar adoption rates. In B-2-B, Microsoft has stated that on some expenses it has been able to reduce them to 15% of the original cost in 1999, such as procuring computers for their offices. Oracle has stated that in 1998 through the first half of 2000, it saved over a billion dollars in expenditures by using B-2-B. It becomes clear, then, that many businesses will not be competitive in the long run without embracing e-commerce.
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Growth in Number of Internet Users
U.S. Online Population Forecasts by Researcher Population (Millions) Metcalf’s Law seems to be a part of the overall picture here.
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Impact 1: Economics of Growth
Increasing “speed of adoption” Far outdistances other technology growth Scale and velocity reshapes economic growth Speed with thought, justification, and purpose makes more sense that only first-to-market arguments of 1998 and 1999.
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Impact 2: Blurring of Industry Boundaries
NAICS codes suffer from a blurring of boundaries. Old categories breaking down “Last mile” to consumer homes see a blur of alternative telecommunications networks NAICS codes (old SIC codes), the traditional business classifications suffer from a blurring of boundaries. The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is replacing the U.S. Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. NAICS will reshape the way we view our changing economy. NAICS was developed jointly by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico to provide new comparability in statistics about business activity across North America. Old categories breaking down “Last mile” to consumer homes see a blur of alternative telecommunications networks (telephone lines, digital subscriber lines, cable TV, cable Internet, digital satellite TV, digital satellite Internet, and wireless providers
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Impact 3: Transformation of Social Structure and Society
Transforming learning group communications scientific interchange how society functions Ubiquitous Website addresses Transforming learning group communications across time zones scientific interchange how society functions Ubiquitous Website addresses referenced in other media
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Opportunities for Wealth Creation
Enormous market capitalization for several New economy players consumer products financial markets middleware enabling commerce services advertising Enormous market capitalization for several New Economy players consumer products Amazon.com priceline financial markets E*trade Schwab.com middleware enabling commerce Ariba Vignette CommerceOne services CMGI Sterling Commerce VeriSign advertising DoubleClick 24/7 avenuea Confluence of factors number of users blurring and aggregation in a “winner-take-all” model transformative nature of e-commerce on rest of economy
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Could it be this chart does not take into account the inverse yield curve of long term US Treasury bonds at the end of 2000, predicting a possible recession in the future? Nevertheless, the growth is staggering.
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Business-to-Business e-commerce Projections, In Millions (1996-2000)
The numbers should make people wake up!
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Projects like this, may or may not occur
Projects like this, may or may not occur. The risk is the position that one puts a company in to ignore it. With the exception of Fisher (Fisher of Chevrolet’s Body by Fisher), can anyone name any of the hundreds of horse carriage makers at the turn of the century?
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Internet Adoption Rates Versus Other Mediums
Internet as Mass Medium — North American Adoption Curves TV Radio North American Users / Households (MM) 50 Million Users / Households Cable Commercial Internet Price and availability are factors. For networked computers, the more ubiquitous, the more powerful: perhaps a corollary to Metcalf’s Law. Years to Reach 50 MM Users Radio: 38 years Commercial Internet: 5 years TV: 13 years Cable*: 10 years * Launch of HBO in 1976 used to estimate the beginning of cable as an entertainment / advertising medium
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Estimated Savings from e-commerce
If Microsoft and Oracle are already claiming from 50% to 90% savings in procurement costs within their organizations, how can others compete with a much higher overhead? Recall the BetaMax/VCR competition. BetaMax was a superior design, superior resolution, superior sound. But, in the end, two items: length of tape recording capability and hardware/blank tape distribution won. Major factors are critical. If one is in business beyond a totally local product, B-2-B, B-2-C, C-2-B, and C-2-C must be a major factor in the way companies do business.
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E-Commerce Decision-making Process
Identify: Customer groups to serve Compelling set of benefits, differentiating “value proposition” Communication effectiveness Content Look and feel Level of community Personalization Organization structure Business services Application services Potential partners Capabilities Shareholders Metrics Customer groups to serve Compelling set of benefits, differentiating “value proposition” benefits to targeted customers “value proposition” vs. online and offline Communication effectiveness Content Look and feel Level of community Personalization of Website Organization structure Business services Application services own, lease, partner, outsource, ASP Potential partners Capabilities Shareholders value Metrics used to judge business progress valuing the business
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E-Commerce Strategy Managerial task of e-commerce strategy
Framing the market opportunity Business model Customer interface Market communications and branding Implementation Metrics Valuation Managerial task of e-commerce strategy Framing the market opportunity customer, competitor, potential business partners Business model 1) value proposition or “cluster” to offer to the segment 2) specific offering 3) associated resource system, delivering the benefits Customer interface How will customer’s perceive my business/ Market communications and branding online and offline , branding, capturing all assets, providing value to customer Implementation How do we go to market? Metrics charting performance, delivery of system, innovation, return customer rates, financial ratios Valuation How do we create value for he stakeholders or shareholders? Emergence of click ‘n mortar (on and offline), private and public
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Exhibit 1-5: Where to Play On-Line and Off-Line
Customer Interface Yahoo! McDonalds Egghead BN.com Interface and fulfillment systems compared. One’s own company can be easily placed within the above competitive framework (shades of Dr. Michael Porter!) to ascertain where the company lies with its competitors. Fulfillment Systems Amazon.com
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Market Infrastructure
Opportunities and constraints Network infrastructure Media infrastructure Two Forms of Convergence Publics and Policies Opportunities and constraints Network infrastructure basic electronic devices and connectivity circuitry communication systems (telephone, cable, broadcast radio and TV, wireless) topology (bus, star, ring) distance (LAN, WAN) protocol (TCP/IP, SNA, other) signal type (vice, data, consolidated such as VoIP) physical link (fiber, cable, twisted-pair) network service providers (telcos, cable-providers) internet service providers (EarthLink, ATT Worldnet) electronic subcomponent (Intel, Motorola) hardware providers (Dell, Compaq, IBM) software companies (Microsoft, Oracle, Corel, Adobe) ASPs (application service providers - Marimba, Novell) Middleware (SAP, PeopleSoft, Ariba) Media infrastructure news, information, entertainment text, images, audio, video Two Forms of Convergence Network and media infrastructure merge due to digital convergence Publics and Policies Public policy and legal concerns - privacy, taxes, public access, and critical to international Internet development, the reconciliation of complex, differing standards, laws, and practices
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Exhibit 1-6: Media Convergence to a Digital Platform
Network Infrastructure Media Infrastructure Print (Newspapers and Magazines) Telephone/DSL Cable Television Digital Convergence Broadcast Radio & TV Radio Satellite Music Faster, better, quicker, more reliable. Wireless Motion Pictures
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A Framework for Electronic Commerce
Evaluation: Metrics and Valuation Framing the Market Opportunity Market Communications and Branding Implementation Business Model Customer Interface e-commerce Strategy Media Infrastructure Market Infrastructure Network Infrastructure Six interrelated, sequential decisions: Framing the market Defining the business model Customer interface Market communications Branding, implementation, and evaluation Decisions made in context of changing market-level infrastructure Vertical boxes and analysis and decisions are made inside boundaries of the firm - controllable Horizontal boxes - forces outside - noncontrollable Apply to all firms competing online in the world, not competing only locally Publics and Politics
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Point Counterpoint: Who will win? Online vs. Offline
On-line Will Win Off-line Will Win Schwab has become a leading player in the on-line brokerage industry Companies with established market leadership have key assets such as relationships with customers, suppliers, deep industry knowledge and experienced management Established companies have deep pockets Off-line companies have established and trusted brands Off-line companies can create spin-out businesses with new culture, processes, funding, etc. Off-line companies can’t easily cannibalize their own businesses Off-line companies stock does not allow them to adequately incentivise key new economy talent Off-line companies move too slowly Key elements of business (e.g. business design, strategy, value proposition) are different in the New Economy “innovator’s Dilemma”: Focusing on current customer needs causes companies to divert focus from new technologies Market will not tolerate blue chip companies running loss-making businesses Off-line companies may face a channel conflict Comparison of the dynamics building between online and offline issues. There have been other technology revolutions From 1894 to 1903, there were 20,000 telephone companies that started in the U.S.
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“The Rest...of the Story” Organization of the Book Ch 1: Overview
Ch 2: Framing the Market Opportunity Customers, competitors, partners Ch. 3: Business Models Value proposition, “marketspace” offering, resource system, financial model Ch 4: The Customer Interface Seven C’s of the Customer Interface Ch 5: Market Communications and Branding Awareness and traffic, customer targeting Ch 6: Implementation What to do and how to get the job done Ch 7: Metrics Performance Dashboard metrics Delivery system Ch 9: Network Infrastructure Enabling “railroad” of H/W, networks. S/W, servers Ch 10: Media Convergence Digital
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