1. New England Political Science Association
“Thinking What He Says: Voter Research and the Making of Donald Trump’s 2016 Presidential Campaign.”
Prof. Brian M. Conley
Suffolk University,
Boston Ma
New England Political Science Association
Providence, RI
2017

2. Trump and 2016 Election “Unconventional Campaign”
Much has been made of the unconventional nature of Donald Trump’s 2016
presidential campaign.
“Says What He thinks.”
Indeed, among the factors that political observers frequently cite to
explain Trump’s success is the affection many of his supporters had for him
as someone they saw as bucking political convention; someone who
actually “says what he thinks.”

3. Trump and 2016 Election
Where Trump was Conventional: Research-Driven Campaign
But there is one thing that Trump did do that all presidential candidates in
the U.S. now try to do:
based his core message and policy positioning on a research-driven understanding of how specific voter segments targeted by his campaign think and behave politically.

4. Trump and 2016 Election
Is Trump the First to Use Voter/Market Research?
To be sure, Trump is not the first U.S. presidential candidate to tailor his message to certain voters, based on ongoing demographic and public opinion research.
This is the New Standard:
In fact, such research-driven messaging and targeting has become standard practice in U.S. politics, even in state-level races.

5. Trump and 2016 Election Argument: Pandering, Not Leadership
However, the Trump campaign does represent was a bald attempt to
formulate policy based solely on mimicking what research suggested
specific voters thought about selected issues, without any effort to interact
with or shape those opinions.

6. Trump and 2016 Election Literature Review: “Research Driven Politics”
Specifically, I examine the extent to which voter research shaped Trump’s strategy in these three areas:
1. Voter Segmentation
2. Voter Targeting
3. Candidate Positioning

7. Political Marketing ? Product Approach: Party/Campaign Policy
No clear connection between what a party does or thinks in terms of policy and what the public needs or wants.
Public (Market)

8. Political Marketing Sales Approach: Party/Campaign Policy: One Way
The Party attempts to “sell” or convince the public that it should want (and thus support) a party’s policies, without consulting the public.
Public

9. Political Marketing Market Approach: Party/Campaign Policy: Two Way
A party has the potential to provide the public what it needs, because it has consulted the public about what it wants.
Public

10. Political Marketing Market Approach: Party/Campaign
“Research Driven Politics”
A market-based approach is operationalized through Research.
Public

11. Political Marketing Market Approach: Party/Campaign
“Research Driven Politics”
A market-based approach is operationalized through Research.
Public
Segmentation
Positioning
Targeting

12. Political Marketing Market Approach: Voter Segmentation Party/Campaign
Segments
Behavioral
Demographic
Geographic
Psychographic
Age
Race
Income
Family Size
Framing
Active Voter
Inactive Voter
Apathetic
Disaffected
Rational
Emotive
Social

13. “Committed Cohabiters”
Political Marketing
Market Approach: Voter Segmentation
Party/Campaign
Segments: Mark Penn : “Micro-Trends
“Soccer Mom”
“Swing-Rich”
“Pet Parents”
“Committed Cohabiters”
“Old New Dads”
“Caffeine Crazies”
“Extreme Commuters”
“Numbers Junkies”
Framing

14. Political Marketing Market Approach: Voter Segmentation Party/Campaign
Segments: Cambridge Analytica 2016
Framing
Cambridge Analytica, hired by Trump in claims to have unique “data points” on 220 million adults living in the US, which they use to build “predictive” models of voter behavior.

15. Political Marketing Market Approach: Voter Targeting Party/Campaign
Framing
Segments

16. Political Marketing Market Approach: Voter Targeting Party/Campaign
Frames
Framing
Segments

17. Concerns, Values, Aspirations, Needs
Political Marketing
Market Approach: Voter Targeting
Party/Campaign
Targeting
Concerns, Values, Aspirations, Needs
Framing
Segments

18. Concerns, Values, Aspirations, Needs
Political Marketing
Market Approach: Voter Positioning
Party/Campaign
Targeting
Concerns, Values, Aspirations, Needs
Positioning
Framing
Segments

19. Trump 2016 Trump Campaign Segments: Tea Party Voters 2010-2016
54% Republican
8% Democratic
40% Indy
89% White
41% Women
36% Southern
22% Midwestern
Framing

20. Trump 2016 Trump Campaign Segments: Tea Party Voters 2010-2016 -
Economic
uncertainty
Status/Race anxiety
Fear of Outsiders
Authoritarian personality
Framing
Frames:
What do people think, value, desire?

21. Trump 2016 Trump Campaign Targeting: How do you reach these voters?
Trump Voter Targets
Framing

22. Trump 2016 Trump Campaign Positioning:
Crafting a message that reaches/resonates with these targeted voters.
Trump Voters Targets
Framing

23. Trump 2016 Trump Campaign Trump’s Trial Balloon: “Birther” Claims
“Birther” claims showed the Trump how it might reach these voters with a message that:
- Invoked Race
- Challenged economic
liberalism
- Challenged Globalization
- Immigration/Terrorism
Positioning:
Crafting a message that reaches/resonates with these targeted voters.
Trump Voter
Targets
Framing

24. Trump 2016 Trump Campaign Trump’s (Inverted) Populism Positioning:
- Economic Nationalism
- Anti-Globalization
- Tough on Immigration
(outsiders)
- Terrorism (threats form
abroad)
Positioning:
Crafting a message that reaches/resonates with these targeted voters.
Trump Voter
Targets
Framing

25. Economy Globalization:
“Globalization has made the financial elite who donate to politicians very wealthy… but it has left millions of our workers with nothing but poverty and heartache”
Economic Nationalism:
His plan was to rebuild the country with “American hands” fueled by “American energy, harvested from American sources”
Taxes:
His tax proposals “will present a night-and-day contrast to the job-killing, tax-raising, poverty-inducing Obama-Clinton agenda”
Trump Voter Targets
Elites:
“They knew [that] as long as Clinton is in charge nothing will ever change…the inner cities will remain poor…factories will remain closed…borders will remain open…[and] special interests will remain firmly in control”
Framing

26. Immigration
Who has been ignored? “Our forgotten working people,” he asserted, and the many ways that liberal Washington’s failure to curb illegal immigration has negatively “impact[ed]…their jobs, wages, housing, schools, tax bills and general living conditions”
Serves Elites:
“The fundamental problem with the immigration system in our country,” Trump contended, “is that it serves the needs of the wealthy donors, political activists and powerful, powerful politicians.”
Trump Voter
Targets
Framing
Get Tough:
He will mass deport, adopt “zero-tolerance for criminal aliens,” recruit “5,000 more Border Patrol agents,” “block funding for sanctuary cities,” ban all immigrants from certain countries and, of course, “build a great wall along the southern border” that Mexico will pay for.

27. Economy: Leadership?
Trump did not specify how he would revive the economy.
Bring Coal Back?
Revive Manufacturing?
America First?
Trump Voter
Targets
Retreat From The World?
Framing
American Sources?
Economic Independence?

28. Immigration: Leadership?
What Trump did not do was inform his target audiences that experts generally believe that few, if any of these proposals will have the effect on immigration, illegal or otherwise, that Trump suggested.
A Wall?
Mass Deportation?
Muslim Ban?
Trump Voter
Targets
Extreme Vetting?
Framing

29. EXTRA
EXTRA

30. Trump and 2016 Election Roadmap:
It is the object of this chapter to examine the extent to which voter
research and market-based strategy shaped Donald Trump’s successful 2016
presidential campaign.
It will do so by:
1. First reviewing the unique role voter research plays in market-oriented politics,
2. Second, by critically evaluating how central research-based voter segmentation and targeting was to Trump’s overall policy positioning during the general election.

31. Trump and 2016 Election Argument: Pandering, Not Leadership
Rather, what the Trump campaign represented was a bald attempt to
formulate policy based solely on mimicking what research suggested
specific voters thought about selected issues, without any effort to interact
with or shape those opinions.
What is Pandering?
As political marketing scholars have asserted, simply repeating, and thus
reinforcing, what targeted voter groups think, regardless of how base or
inaccurate such beliefs may be, is merely pandering and not a form of
political leadership.

32. Trump and 2016 Election
Where Trump was Conventional: Research-Driven Campaign
But there is one thing that Trump did do that all presidential candidates in
the U.S. now try to do:
based his core message and policy positioning on a research-driven understanding of how specific voter segments targeted by his campaign think and behave politically.
Research Helped Him Defy Convention:
It is this targeting and the disciplined way in which Trump has positioned
himself with specific voter groups that has not only enabled him to defy
political convention, but also to benefit from doing so.

33. ? Political Marketing Product Approach: Party Policy
No clear connection between what a party does or thinks in terms of policy and what the public needs or wants
Public (Market)

34. Political Marketing Sales Approach: Party Policy: One Way
The Party attempts to “sell” or convince the public that it should want (and thus support) a party’s policies, without consulting the public.
Public (Market)

35. Political Marketing Market Approach: Voter Segmentation
Voter Targeting
Candidate Positioning
Market Approach:
Party /Campaign
“Research Driven Politics”
A market-based approach is operationalized through Research.
Public
Segmentation
Targeting
Positioning

36. Political Marketing Market Approach: Voter Segmentation
Voter Targeting
Candidate Positioning
Market Approach:
Party /Campaign
“Research Driven Politics”
A market-based approach is operationalized through Research.
Public
Segmentation
Targeting
Positioning

37. Political Marketing Market Approach: Party “Research Driven Politics”
A market-based approach is operationalized through Research.
Policy: Two Way
A party has the potential to provide the public what it needs, because it has consulted the public about what it wants.
Public
Voter Segmentation
Voter Targeting
Candidate Positioning

38. Political Marketing Market Approach: Voter Targeting Party/Campaign
-Tea Party Voters
Frames:
What do people think, value, desire?
Framing

39. Authoritarian personality
Political Marketing
Market Approach: Voter Targeting
Party/Campaign
- Economic anxiety
Status/Race
Fear of Outsiders
Authoritarian personality
Frames:
What do people think, value, desire?
Framing

40. Concerns, Values, Aspirations, Needs
Political Marketing
Market Approach: Voter Targeting
Party/Campaign
Targeting
Concerns, Values, Aspirations, Needs
Positioning
Framing
Segments

41. Political Marketing Market Approach: Voter Targeting Party/Campaign
Positioning
Framing
Segments

42. Political Marketing Market Approach: Voter Targeting Party/Campaign
Framing
Segments

43. Political Marketing Market Approach: Voter Targeting Party/Campaign
Public
Framing
Segments

44. Political Marketing Market Approach: Party Policy and Promises
Political Branding
Developing an idea, message, image, party narrative based on keen understanding of what certain market segments wants, and then building loyalty with that segment
Framing
What do people think, value, desire?
Concerns, Values, Aspirations, Needs
Public
Segments

45. Political Marketing Market Approach: Party Policy and Promises
Positioning
If policy/brand fails it can be repositioned, or modified to reconnect or reaffirm concerns of the targeted segments.
Public
Positioning
Segments

46. Political Marketing Market Approach: Party Policy and Promises
Political Branding
Developing an idea, message, image, party narrative based on keen understanding of what certain market segments wants, and then building loyalty with that segment
Framing
What do people think, value, desire?
Concerns, Values, Aspirations, Needs
Public
Segments

47. Political Marketing Market Approach: Party Policy and Promises
Positioning
If policy/brand fails it can be repositioned, or modified to reconnect or reaffirm concerns of the targeted segments.
Public
Positioning
Segments

48. Political Marketing Market Approach: Republican Party: Health Care
Health Care: Repeal
Political Branding
Developing an idea, message, image, party narrative based on keen understanding of what certain market segments wants, and then building loyalty with that segment
Public
Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice
Differentiation:
Not the DemoCRAT…Party; does not response to DemoCRAT voters (in the first instance)

49. Political Marketing Market Approach: Republican Party: Health Care
Health Care: Repeal
Political Branding
Developing an idea, message, image, party narrative based on keen understanding of what certain market segments wants, and then building loyalty with that segment
Public
Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice
Differentiation:
Not the DemoCRAT…Party; does not response to DemoCRAT voters (in the first instance)

50. Political Marketing
Market Approach: Republican Party Brand: Public View
Republican Party
Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice
Party Branding
How the public views or experiences the party.
Health Care: Repeal
Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice
Public
Segments

51. Political Marketing
Market Approach: Republican Party Brand: Party View
Republican Party
Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice
Party Branding
The party brand story becomes the means through the party communicates, interactions and responses to its targeted segments.
Public
Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice
Segments

52. Political Marketing Market Approach: Republican Party Brand
Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice
Institutionalization?
A party brand story or narrative only works if in fact the party has a story, that is, it has agreed/decided as an institution to cohere around a particular political story.
Public
Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice
Segments

53. Political Marketing Market Approach: Republican Party Brand
Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Family Values, St Def
Republican Institutionalization: The Republican Party has a brand story or narrative:
Small Government
Lower Taxes
Family Values
Strong Defense
Date?
Public
Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice
Segments

54. Political Marketing Market Approach: Obama Brand 2008 Obama
Change, Hope, Audacity, Post-Part/ lnclusion
Obama Brand:
Obama had a brand story or narrative in 2008:
Hope
Change you Can believe in
Public
Responsible govt, community values…
Segments

55. Political Marketing Market Approach: Democratic Party?
??????????????
Dem. Party Brand:
The Democratic Party has talked about developing a brand:
Ethical Politics (Rep Culture of Corruption)
Public
Responsible govt, community values…
Segments

56. Political Marketing
Market Approach: Democratic Party = Obama Brand: 2010 Elections
Democratic Party
Rec Act, 95% Tax Cut, Obama, Middle-Cl Relief
Dem. Party Brand:
The Democratic Party did try to adopt the Obama brand in 2010 (Economic Policy)
Recovery Act
95% Tax Cuts
Obama
Middle-Class Tax
Relief
Public
Responsible govt, community values…
Segments

57. Political Marketing Market Approach: Democratic Party = Obama Brand?
Institutionalization?
For the brand concept to work, it has be embraced (institutionalized) by the party.
Question:
Did the Dem. Party institutionalize the Obama brand?
Rec Act, 95% Tax Cut, Obama, Middle-Cl Relief
Public
Responsible govt, community values…
Segments

58. Political Marketing
Market Approach: Democratic Party = Obama Brand: US Senate 2010
Democratic Party
Rec Act, 95% Tax Cut, Obama, Middle-Cl Relief
Institutionalization?
Leadership (White House, DCCC, DSCC): Yes.
Public
Responsible govt, community values…
Segments

59. Political Marketing
Market Approach: Democratic Party = Obama Brand: US Senate 2010
Democratic Party
Institutionalization?
The 19 Democratic candidates running to retain party seats in the US Senate: NO!
Rec Act, 95% Tax Cut, Obama, Middle-Cl Relief
Public
Responsible govt, community values…
Segments

60. Political Marketing
Market Approach: Republican Party Brand: US Senate 2010
Republican Party
Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Family Values, St Def
Republican Institutionalization: The Republican leadership (RNC, NRSC, NRCC) and 18 candidates running to retain party seats in US Senate: YES
Public
Small Govt, Lower Taxes, Personal Choice
Segments

61. “Committed Cohabiters”
Political Marketing
Market Approach: Voter Segmentation
Party/Campaign
Segments: Trump Campaign Segmentation
“Soccer Mom”
“Swing-Rich”
“Pet Parents”
“Committed Cohabiters”
“Old New Dads”
“Caffeine Crazies”
“Extreme Commuters”
“Numbers Junkies”
Framing

62. Economy Globalization:
“Globalization has made the financial elite who donate to politicians very wealthy… but it has left millions of our workers with nothing but poverty and heartache”
Trade Deals:
Hillary Clinton, who along with her husband supported trade deals that took “from the people their means of making a living and supporting their families”
Taxes:
His tax proposals “will present a night-and-day contrast to the job-killing, tax-raising, poverty-inducing Obama-Clinton agenda”
Trump Voters
Elites:
“They knew [that] as long as Clinton is in charge nothing will ever change…the inner cities will remain poor…factories will remain closed…borders will remain open…[and] special interests will remain firmly in control”
Framing

63. Immigration Globalization:
“Globalization has made the financial elite who donate to politicians very wealthy… but it has left millions of our workers with nothing but poverty and heartache”
Trade Deals:
Hillary Clinton, who along with her husband supported trade deals that took “from the people their means of making a living and supporting their families”
Taxes:
His tax proposals “will present a night-and-day contrast to the job-killing, tax-raising, poverty-inducing Obama-Clinton agenda”
Tea Party Voters
Elites:
“They knew [that] as long as Clinton is in charge nothing will ever change…the inner cities will remain poor…factories will remain closed…borders will remain open…[and] special interests will remain firmly in control”
Framing

64. Trade Deals: Globalization:
Hillary Clinton, who along with her husband supported trade deals that took “from the people their means of making a living and supporting their families”
Globalization:
“Globalization has made the financial elite who donate to politicians very wealthy… but it has left millions of our workers with nothing but poverty and heartache”
Taxes:
His tax proposals “will present a night-and-day contrast to the job-killing, tax-raising, poverty-inducing Obama-Clinton agenda”
Tea Party Voters
Elites:
“They knew [that] as long as Clinton is in charge nothing will ever change…the inner cities will remain poor…factories will remain closed…borders will remain open…[and] special interests will remain firmly in control”
Framing

65. Economy Globalization:
“Globalization has made the financial elite who donate to politicians very wealthy… but it has left millions of our workers with nothing but poverty and heartache”
Trade Deals:
Hillary Clinton, who along with her husband supported trade deals that took “from the people their means of making a living and supporting their families”
Economic Nationalism:
His plan was to rebuild the country with “American hands” fueled by “American energy, harvested from American sources”
Trump Voters
Elites:
“They knew [that] as long as Clinton is in charge nothing will ever change…the inner cities will remain poor…factories will remain closed…borders will remain open…[and] special interests will remain firmly in control”
Taxes:
His tax proposals “will present a night-and-day contrast to the job-killing, tax-raising, poverty-inducing Obama-Clinton agenda”
Framing

66. Economy Economic Nationalism:
His plan was to rebuild the country with “American hands” fueled by “American energy, harvested from American sources”
I want you to imagine how much better our future can be if we declare independence from the elites who’ve led us to one financial and foreign policy disaster after another.”
Taxes:
His tax proposals “will present a night-and-day contrast to the job-killing, tax-raising, poverty-inducing Obama-Clinton agenda”
Trump Voters
Elites:
“They knew [that] as long as Clinton is in charge nothing will ever change…the inner cities will remain poor…factories will remain closed…borders will remain open…[and] special interests will remain firmly in control”
Framing

67. Immigration: Leadership?
Claims about mass deportation, for example, are little more than rhetoric, experts argue, entirely disconnected from the legal, logistical or ethical challenges associated with an actual attempt to forcibly remove millions of people from the country (Bennett 2016). Equally dubious was the idea that the US-Mexican border could be secured by erecting a wall (Harlan and Markon 2016).
Trump Voters
Framing
Get Tough:
He will mass deport, adopt “zero-tolerance for criminal aliens,” recruit “5,000 more Border Patrol agents,” “block funding for sanctuary cities,” ban all immigrants from certain countries and, of course, “build a great wall along the southern border” that Mexico will pay for.