2. HANS ROSLING

3. The Demographic Transition
A model with four stages that helps to explain the rise and fall of pop’n growth rates over time.
Demographic transition is linear, so it has a beginning, middle, and an end.

4. Marked by very high birth and death rates.
Stage 1: Low Growth
Marked by very high birth and death rates.
No long-term natural increase
No country presently in Stage 1-only rare and isolated cases (Amazonian natives and other preserved pre-industrial communities)

5. Marked by rapidly declining death rates and very high birth rates
Stage 2: High Growth
Marked by rapidly declining death rates and very high birth rates
High natural increase
Europe and North America entered stage 2, as a result of the industrial revolution (~1750).
Africa, Asia, and Latin America entered stage 2 around 1950, as a result of medical revolution-improved medical care.

7. Stage 3: Slowing Growth
Marked by rapid decline in birth rates and steady decline in death rates
Natural increase slows.
Gap between CBR and CDR narrows
Population grows, but more slowly.
Most European countries and North America transitioned to stage 3, during first half of 20th century.

10. No long-term natural increase and possibly a decrease
Stage 4: Low Growth
Marked by very low birth and death rates
No long-term natural increase and possibly a decrease
Reached when CBR & CDR meet
Condition known as zero population growth (ZPG)
A TFR of 2.1 produces ZPG.

11. For stage 4 countries, most population growth results from immigration.

16. POSSIBLE STAGE 5 – DECLINING POPULATION?
Some countries have entered what might be Stage 5, where a very low CBR is overtaken by a growing CDR.
Increased death rate is caused by the dying-off of older generations

20. Figure 2-28 JAPAN’S CHANGING POPULATION PYRAMIDS Japan’s population pyramid has shifted from a broad base in 1950 to a rectangular shape. In the future, the bottom of the pyramid is expected to contract and the top to expand.

21. FIGURE 2-17 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL The demographic transition model consists of four stages.

22. Two Successful Strategies for Lowering Birth Rates
Improving Education and Health Care
Near-direct correlation between education and number of children a woman will have
Some women will choose career over childrearing
With improved healthcare, more children will survive infancy, so women can have less overall.

23. 2. Contraception
Can be effective even in places with limited women’s empowerment
Met with greater resistance, because it goes against cultural or religious beliefs of some.
Political Opposition
Religious Opposition

24. FIGURE 2-24 WOMEN USING FAMILY PLANNING More than two-thirds of couples in developed countries use a family-planning method. Family-planning varies widely in developing countries. China reports the world’s highest rate of family planning; the lowest rates are in sub-Saharan Africa.

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