1. The Problem: Our Solutions:
PV output fluctuates (80% dropouts in 5 sec)
TEP will have 250 MW of PV by 2013
TEP needs forecasts to ramp up generators
No forecasts are good enough yet
Our Solutions:
Advanced Numerical Weather Model
Irradiance Network and Velocity Model
Cloud movie analysis

2. The Problem: ACC Regulations require Big Solar.
AC Power (kW)
Aug 9
Aug 10
time
ACC Regulations require Big Solar.
Now Utility Operators need Forecasts.

3. Our Solution #1 Our Solution #2 Numerical Weather Model Forecast
Good for:
2-hr averages
40 hours in advance
Our Solution #2
100 Rooftops +
Wind Forecast
Good for:
10 minute detail
1-2 hours in advance

5. Distribution of ~280 MW 34 25
70 MW DG
6.4 5 12 5 23 50 10 35