1. The Ethiopia MDG needs assessment: the contribution of the MAMS
Caterina Ruggeri Laderchi, AFTP2

2. The Process Process initiated by the Millennium Project
Government asked for WB support on macro – artificial distinction between sectoral and macro analysis
“Scenario A vs. Scenario B” controversy
MAMS initially perceived as World Bank product – macro constraints would lead to Scenario B
Work on MAMS independent from Government process allowed the development of a WB contribution to the analysis

3. Sectoral Needs Assessment
Tasks:
Review background diagnostic work on development opportunities, challenges, and prospects re goals
Identification of interventions needed and associated targets
Challenges:
Priorities and their relevance for MDG achievement
Inputs combination and unit costs
Costing infrastructure needs and more generally tackling the growth agenda
No consideration of joint synergies and constraints

4. The Synthesis Report Tasks:
Summarizing sectoral interventions and needs
Integrate them into a coherent plan
Challenges:
Endogenize growth – the plan is to put ET on a different growth path
Develop a macro/fiscal framework and estimate the total cost for reaching the MDGs
Assess the realism of the NA macro and economy wide implications of scaling up,
Provide alternative scenarios
Identify optimal phasing and sequencing
Consider alternative financing strategies

5. Role of MAMS MAMS used as an external tool to inform the analysis:
Benchmark estimates of overall costs
Phasing of different types of interventions
Constrained scenarios – implicit trade-offs
MAMS not used directly in the Synthesis because:
Linking sectoral expenditure to outcomes requires agreement on micro-specifications and relations of inputs with outcomes – MAMS informed by WB sectoral expertise
A simpler macro-model was sufficient to check on macro-effects of sectoral plans
MAMS retained as an independent WB tool to assess Government strategy

6. Next steps in Country Dialogue …
Integration of the MDG NA in the new PRSP
Focus on
Reviewing policy, institutional and structural constraints to implementation
Translating long term MDG plan into medium term scenarios
MAMS, especially if private sector is disaggregated, can continue informing policy dialogue. In the next phase, some sectoral issues may be of particular importance:
growth patterns, labor, and income distribution
links between aid, trade and income distribution
tax policies