1. WG5-Report from Switzerland: Verification of aLMo in the year 2005
Francis Schubiger, Pirmin Kaufmann,
Guy de Morsier, André Walser,
Emanuele Zala, Dominique Ruffieux
MeteoSwiss

2. WP and WP 5.1.7
verification of aLMo surface weather parameters with SYNOP stations (every 6h) and with ANETZ (every 1h)
operational, ongoing as in 2004
results sent to the COSMO website
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

3. Total Cloud Cover: Frequency Bias (Threshold 30%)
Summer: Occurrence of 30% (2.5 octa) or more cloud cover usually underestimated in Mediterranean region
Winter: Generally good agreement
Summer
(2005)
Winter
(2004/5)
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

4. Total Cloud Cover: Frequency Bias (Threshold 80%)
Summer
Occurrence of 80% (6.5 octa) or more cloud cover usually overestimated in Mediterranean region
Underestimation over northwest and central Continent
Summer 2003
Exceptional (heat wave)
Strong overestimation, especially over southern Europe
Summer
(2005)
Summer 2003
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

5. Total Cloud Cover: Frequency Bias (Threshold 80%)
Winter
Generally good agreement (except boundary effects)
Overestimation south of Alps
Winter 2003/4
No overestimation south of Alps
Winter
(2004/5)
Winter 2003/4
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

6. Precipitation: Frequency Bias (Thr. 0.1 mm/12h)
Summer
Occurrence of 0.1 mm/12h or more precipitation overestimated, especially over southern Europe
Winter:
General overestimation, strongly increasing with terrain height
Summer
(2005)
Winter
(2004/5)
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

7. Precipitation: False Alarm Rate (Thr. 0.1 mm/12h)
Typical Winter (shown: 2004/5)
False Alarm Rate is very high (> 50% at many sites)
Extremely high where frequency of occurrence is low.
False Alarm R.
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,
Obs. Freq.

8. ANETZ LM aLMo COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05
2m-temperature:
The maxima is reached ~ 1.5 hours too early and the value is correct for gridpoints < 800m.  During nighttime there is a negative bias of the order of ~ 2.5 K for gridpoints < 800m and up to 5 K for gridpoints > 1500m. The daily amplitude is exaggerated by ~  2 K. The kalmanfilter corrects these biases.
2m-dewpoint depression:
The diurnal cycle is not well reproduced: aLMo  is much too dry during the night. The kalmanfilter corrects these biases but for the 00 UTC-forecasts at some locations during nighttime the correction is bad (example for Fahy, in the nothwestern edge of Switzerland, 600 m asl).
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

9. winter 04/05
By comparing the results for gridpoints < 800m and > 1500m it is clear that the model is not able to forecast correctly the low level clouds (wintertime stratus). But at  analysis time there is almost no bias for gridpoints < 800m, i.e. the assimilation of low level clouds (stratus) in the nudging scheme seems satisfactory. For gridpoints> 1500m (above the wintertime stratus) there is positive bias of ~ octa.
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

10. daily cycle summer 2005 gridpoints > 1500m over CH
aLMo LM
ANETZ
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

11. exchange of LM maps on the COSMO website:
WP and WP 5.1.8
exchange of LM maps on the COSMO website:
ongoing as in 2004:
LM, aLMo, LAMI and Euro-LM plots can be viewed on an operational basis (daily update of the plots) on COSMO mirror website
LME maps starting end of September 2005
verification of on higher resolution with aLMo/2.2
not yet started (planned for autumn 05)
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

12. Verification of the vertical profiles at TEMP stations
WP and WP 5.2.6
Verification of the vertical profiles at TEMP stations
operational, ongoing as in 2004
results sent to the COSMO website
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

13. Temperature verification TEMPs Winter 2004/2005
The mean error for temperature shows a clear cold bias of up to 0.6 K between 1000 hPa and 300 hPa, which is increasing with forecast time. Above the tropopause height, an unprecedented cold bias of up to 2 K at 50 hPa can be observed, also increasing with forecast time. Although this cold bias in the stratosphere is known from other seasons, its magnitude is considerably larger than previously seen. Concerning the standard deviation, temperature shows largest spread close to the surface, around the tropopause level as well as in the stratosphere.
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

14. All TEMPs stations in aLMo domain
Hourly IFS-boundary conditions: Impact on geopotential Summer 2004 (58 forecasts)
Upper-air verification of geopotential for 58 forecasts in summer 2004 at forecast time +72h. Left: bias (model minus radiosonde). Right: standard deviation of errors. RED: operational 3h LBC update, BLUE: 1h LBC update.
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,
All TEMPs stations in aLMo domain

15. 6 TEMPs stations west of the Alps
Hourly IFS-boundary conditions: Impact on geopotential January 2005 (31 forecasts)
Upper-air verification of geopotential for 31 forecasts in winter 2005 at forecast time +72h for 6 TEMP stations west of the Alps. Left: bias (model minus radiosonde). Right: standard deviation of errors. RED: operational 3h LBC update, BLUE: 1h LBC update.
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,
6 TEMPs stations west of the Alps

16. Verification results BC testchain
Re-analysis (a posteriori) centre of low: 960 hPa
Storm Erwin, January 8, 2005, 12 UTC
+36h forecast: centre of low: 972 hPa
1h LBC: hPa
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

17. Weather regime verification with upper-air data:
WP 5.3.3, 5.4.1, 5.4.2
Weather regime verification with upper-air data:
updated –
Daily verification of aLMo cloudiness with METEOSAT VIS channel
ongoing as in 2004
Verification of aLMo precipitation forecast using radar composite network
updated for the climatological year 2004 with a new weather type classification
A weather situation-dependent verification of aLMo precipitation based on swiss radar composit data was performed over the climatic year Two weather classification were used: the Schuepp classification (used daily by MeteoSwiss forecast office) and a simple subjective classification based mainly on 500hPa winds and surface pressure distribution over the alpine region. Both classifications deliver similar results, the signal is clearer in the subjective classification.
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

18. aLMo precipitation sum (00 runs 6-30h)
Climatology 2004
aLMo precipitation sum (00 runs 6-30h)
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

19. radar precipitation sum (without corrections)
Climatology 2004
radar precipitation sum (without corrections)
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

20. difference aLMo - radar
Climatology 2004
difference aLMo - radar
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

21. Alpine Weather Statistics
Situation
AWS (Schuepp)
Ele (UA Winds) N 47 14 NE - 10 E 1 SE 7 S 28 13 SW 50 W 16 46 NW 31
flat
110 58
high 59 99
low 19 35
mix 11
jet 60
all
364
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

22. ele classification S COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

23. ele classification NW COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

24. Verification of aLMo integrated water vapor content with GPS data
WP 5.4.3, WP and WP 5.6.2
Verification of aLMo integrated water vapor content with GPS data
ongoing as in 2004
Validation of near-surface boundary layer processes
extension for verification on a daily basis with windprofiler at Payerne
Verification of new schemes for WG1-WG3
Preliminary exercise for WG3/5 workshop in Langen ( ) completed. No new developments since then.
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

25. Verification with windprofiler and TEMPs
focused on Payerne
operational
automatic
products delivered on intranet
comparison with aLMo 0, -12, -24, -36, -48 hours
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

26. comparison between profiles at given day
Three types of plots available:
comparison between profiles at given day
statistics for a given period of time
time series of monthly averages for a given year and a given altitude
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

27. Verification with windprofiler and TEMPs : an example
(a) comparison between profiles at given day (13 August UTC)
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,
wind speed wind direction

28. (b) statistics for a given period of time
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,

29. (c) time series of monthly averages for a given year and a given altitude
COSMO General Meeting, Zurich,