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(Elena Oberto, Massimo Milelli - ARPA Piemonte)

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Presentation on theme: "(Elena Oberto, Massimo Milelli - ARPA Piemonte)"— Presentation transcript:

1 (Elena Oberto, Massimo Milelli - ARPA Piemonte)
Precipitation verification comparison among COSMO-I7, COSMO-EU, COSMO-7, COSMO-ME, COSMO-I2, COSMO-IT (Elena Oberto, Massimo Milelli - ARPA Piemonte) QPF verification of the 4 model versions at 7 km res. (COSMO-I7, COSMO-7, COSMO-EU, COSMO-ME) with the 2 model versions at 2 km res. (COSMO-I2, COSMO-IT) Specifications: Dataset: high resolution network of rain gauges coming from COSMO dataset and Civil Protection Department  1300 stations Method: 24h/6h averaged cumulated precipitation value over 90 meteo-hydrological basins The aims: Long period verification (seasonal trend) Verification ovest last year ( )

2 Seasonal trends BIAS th 0.2mm/24h

3 Seasonal trends BIAS th 20mm/24h

4 Seasonal trends ETS th 0.2mm/24h

5 Seasonal trends ETS th 20mm/24h

6 Seasonal trends POD th 0.2 mm/24h

7 Seasonal trends POD th 20 mm/24h

8 Seasonal trends FAR th 0.2 mm/24h

9 Seasonal trends FAR th 20 mm/24h

10

11 Verification over last year (200706-200806)
COSMO-7/COSMO-EU Not so strong differences COSMO-7 sligtly better on average

12 Verification over last year (200706-200806)
COSMO-7/COSMO-EU Strong differences during the single season COSMO-EU quite stable overestimation COSMO-7 bias and pod decrease (far reduction)

13 Verification over last year (200706-200806)
COSMO-I7/COSMO-ME Not so strong differences COSMO-ME sligtly better on average

14 Verification over last year (200706-200806)
COSMO-I7/COSMO-ME Strong differences during the single season COSMO-ME quite stable overestimation COSMO-I7 bias and pod decrease

15 Verification over last year (200706-200806)
COSMO-I7/COSMO-I2 COSMO-I2 sligtly better on average

16 Verification over last year (200706-200806)
COSMO-I7/COSMO-I2 COSMO-I2 trend seems to follow COSMO-I7 trend COSMO-I2 worsening: strong positive bias last summer (deep convection on), negative bias this spring (deep convection off)

17 Verification over last year (200706-200806)
COSMO-ME/COSMO-IT No significant differences

18 Verification over last year (200706-200806)
COSMO-ME/COSMO-IT Generally the same trend bias > 1 Sligltly improvement for pod, ets,far

19 Verification over last year (200706-200806)
Diurnal cycle Bias overestimation peak during midday Best value peak for pod, ets, far during afternoon Spin-up problem for all the models especially COSMO-I7 and COSMO-I2

20 Verification over last year (200706-200806)
Diurnal cycle General worsening with forecast time The spin-up seems to disappear except for COSMO-I2 Anomalous behaviour for COSMO-I2 COSMO-7 underestimates

21 Summarizing… Trend over long period: general slight improvement with the exception of COSMO-7 and COSMO-I7 for the last seasons Intercomparison model verification over : COSMO-EU and COSMO-ME quite stable overestimation COSMO-7 bias and pod decrease COSMO-I7 bias and pod decrease COSMO-I2 worsening: strong bias >1 last summer (deep convection on), bias < 1 this spring (deep convection off) Similar performance for COSMO-ME and COSMO-IT 3. Diurnal cycle over : Bias overestimation peak during midday Best values of pod, ets, far during afternoon Spin-up problem for low thresholds General worsening with the forecast time General overestimation with the exception of COSMO-7

22 COSMO-7 COSMO-EU COSMO-I7 BIAS 00/24H COSMO-ME COSMO-IT COSMO-I2
00/24H COSMO-ME COSMO-IT COSMO-I2

23 COSMO-7 COSMO-EU COSMO-I7 ETS 00/24H COSMO-ME COSMO-IT COSMO-I2
00/24H COSMO-ME COSMO-IT COSMO-I2

24

25 Ticino/valtellina friuli toce veneto trentino garfagnana

26

27 COSMO-7 COSMO-EU COSMO-I7 COSMO-ME COSMO-IT COSMO-I2

28 COSMO-7 COSMO-EU COSMO-I7 COSMO-ME COSMO-IT COSMO-I2

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