1. Sampling Distributions of Proportions

2. Toss a penny 20 times and record the number of heads.
The dotplot is a partial graph of the sampling distribution of all sample proportions of sample size 20. If I found all the possible sample proportions – this would be approximately normal!
Toss a penny 20 times and record the number of heads.
Calculate the proportion of heads & mark it on the dot plot on the board.
What shape do you think the dot plot will have?

3. Sampling Distribution
Where x is the number in the sample & n is the sample size
Is the distribution of possible values of a statistic from all possible samples of the same size from the same population
In the case of the pennies, it’s the distribution of all possible sample proportions (p)
We will use:
p for the population proportion
and
p-hat for the sample proportion

4. We are interested in the proportion of females. This is called
Suppose we have a population of six people: Alice, Ben, Charles, Denise, Edward, & Frank
We are interested in the proportion of females. This is called
What is the proportion of females?
Draw samples of two from this population.
How many different samples are possible?
The parameter of interest
1/3
6C2 =15

5. Find the 15 different samples that are possible & find the sample proportion of the number of females in each sample.
Ben & Frank 0
Charles & Denise .5
Charles & Edward 0
Charles & Frank 0
Denise & Edward .5
Denise & Frank .5
Edward & Frank 0
Alice & Ben .5
Alice & Charles .5
Alice & Denise 1
Alice & Edward .5
Alice & Frank .5
Ben & Charles 0
Ben & Denise .5
Ben & Edward 0
How does the mean of the sampling distribution (mp-hat) compare to the population parameter (p)?
mp-hat = p
Find the mean & standard deviation of all p-hats.

6. What do you notice about the means & standard deviations?
Suppose we have a population of six people: Alice, Ben, Charles, Denise, Edward, & Frank
Draw samples of three from this population.
How many different samples are possible?
Find the mean & standard deviation of all p-hats.
What do you notice about the means & standard deviations?
6C3 = 20

7. These are found on the formula chart!
Formulas:
These are found on the formula chart!

8. Correction factor – multiply by
Does the standard deviation of the sampling distribution equal the equation?
NO -
So – in order to calculate the standard deviation of the sampling distribution, we MUST be sure that our sample size is less than 10% of the population!
WHY?
Correction factor – multiply by
We are sampling more than 10% of our population! If we use the correction factor, we will see that we are correct.

9. Assumptions (Rules of Thumb)
Sample size must be less than 10% of the population (independence)
Sample size must be large enough to insure a normal approximation can be used.
np > 10 & n (1 – p) > 10

10. Remember back to binomial distributions
Why does the second assumption insure an approximate normal distribution?
Remember back to binomial distributions
Suppose n = 10 & p = 0.1 (probability of a success), a histogram of this distribution is strongly skewed right!

11. Assumptions (Rules of Thumb)
Sample size must be less than 10% of the population (independence)
Sample size must be large enough to insure a normal approximation can be used.
np > 10 & n (1 – p) > 10

12. Based on past experience, a bank believes that 7% of the people who receive loans will not make payments on time The bank recently approved 200 loans.
What are the mean and standard deviation of the proportion of clients in this group who may not make payments on time?
Are assumptions met?
What is the probability that over 10% of these clients will not make payments on time?
Yes –
np = 200(.07) = 14
n(1 - p) = 200(.93) = 186
Ncdf(.10, 1E99, .07, ) = .0482

13. Suppose one student tossed a coin 200 times and found only 42% heads
Suppose one student tossed a coin 200 times and found only 42% heads. Do you believe that this is likely to happen? Find the probability that a coin would land heads less than 42% of the time.
np = 200(.5) = 100 & n(1-p) = 200(.5) = 100
Since both > 10, I can use a normal curve!
Find m & s using the formulas.
No – since there is approximately a 1% chance of this happening, I do not believe the student did this.

14. Assume that 30% of the students at MHS wear contacts
Assume that 30% of the students at MHS wear contacts. In a sample of 100 students, what is the probability that more than 35% of them wear contacts? !
mp-hat = & sp-hat =
np = 100(.3) = 30 & n(1-p) =100(.7) = 70
Ncdf(.35, 1E99, .3, ) = .1376