1. Global Grains Food & Feed Conference
Global & India Grains Scenario

2. Global Corn Scenario : World still flushed with enough Corn stocks.
31 Mn tns of drop is global corn production is still not huge ?
Supply side situation looks pretty much okay. Leave the numbers to be discussed by the next speakers.
Is there a story in world corn today, seems difficult unless Argentinian weather concerns of dryness pull Soya crop hence corn follows !!!

3. Global Corn - Area, Production & Yields
- 31 MMT
Major decline: US, China, Brazil & Ukraine
Reason: Unfavorable weather

4. Global Corn Stocks - Declining
Global corn end stocks likely to decline by 9.7% y-o-y to 207 MMT lowest in last 3 years, thus supporting the prices

5. How does this impact Indian Corn scenario ?
Indian Rabi crop sowing has been excellent.
North east part was impacted by floods last year and hence ground water levels are good, production expected higher than last year .
Being election year, will government buy corn also at MSP or implement Bhavanter scheme in corn also in Rabi crops.
If yes, we might see some potential to export Corn like soya else prices in Corn are likely to remain subdued.
Jun/July shipments being asked at USD 210 CNF SE Asian countries.

6. India Corn Consumption Trend
Feed Consumption growing at CAGR of 8%
FSI Consumption growing at CAGR of 2%

7. How to fulfill our increasing demand??
India Corn S&D Scenario
2016/17
2017/18 E
2018/19 F
2019/20 F
Supply
27.19
27.00
27.41
26.89
Demand
25.59
26.30
27.74
29.29
Surplus/Deficit
1.60
0.70
-0.34
-2.40
Will India be able to increase our domestic corn supply by increasing yields?
Is adoption of Non GMO seeds will become a compulsion to increase yields?
Will India become Net importer of corn from 2018/19 onwards?

8. Indian Corn Trade Scenario
Since, last 3 years we are seeing a shift in the Indian corn trade scenario

9. Are we heading towards Net Agri Importer?

10. Global Wheat Scenario

11. Global Wheat Scenario :
World has seen an upswing in wheat production across the world, Aus shortfall was well taken care of by huge rise in Russian crop.
World ending stocks grow by 15 Mn tns.Stock to use ratio has also increased.
Black sea countries followed by Europe have emerged as new wheat production hubs for the world this reducing dependence on US and Aus origins.

12. Global Wheat - Area, Production & Yields
6.6 MMT
Increase: RUS & EU

13. Major Wheat Exporters Production – 17/18 vs. 16/17
EU (+6.4 MMT)
151.6 VS MMT LY
RUS (12.5 MMT)
85 VS 72.5 MMT LY
CAN (-1.7 MMT)
30 VS 31.7 MMT LY
UKR (- 0.3 MMT)
26.5 VS 26.8 MMT LY
US (-15.5 MMT)
47.4 VS 62.8 MMT LY
AUS (- 8.9 MMT)
21.5 VS 30.4 MMT LY
ARG (-0.9 MMT)
17.5 VS 18.4 MMT LY
Major Exporters Wheat Production (MMT)
2016/17
2017/18
17/18 vs. 16/17
391.5
363.2
-28.2

14. Global Wheat Trade Scenario
Country
2016/2017
2017/2018
Change
Argentina
13.8
11.9
-1.9
Australia
22.6
16.0
-6.6
Canada
20.2
22.0
1.8 EU
27.3
27.0
-0.3
Kazakhstan
7.4
7.5
0.1
Mexico
1.1
1.4
0.3
Russia
27.8
35.0
7.2
Ukraine
18.1
17.0
-1.1 US
28.7
26.5
-2.2
Others
16.3
16.5
0.2
Total
183.4
180.8
-2.5

15. Global Wheat Stocks - Increasing
+15 MMT
Larger wheat stocks are mostly with nations like China (128 MMT) which exports minuscule quantity
Even India wheat stocks likely to be around 10 MMT which is hardly exportable

16. Indian Wheat Trade Scenario
Indian trade scenario is changing in the recent years – a shift from exporter to importer of wheat

17. Question : How much India will import this year ????