1. Urban development scenarios and theme implementation
Chris Jacobs-Crisioni. June 24, 2013

2. This presentation
Two scenarios of urban development: are we on the right track? How we model the effect of funding for urban regeneration How we model the effect of funding for transport network development How we model the effect of funding for other transport means

3. Policy scenarios
“Compact development” Difference with reference: Europe-wide policies enforcing that urban development may only occur adjacent to existing urban areas Expected: same or less urban development than the reference scenario
“Business as Usual” Difference with reference: Land consumption per capita is larger than reference scenario. Expected: substantial urban development.

4. Like this? (example: Brussels)

5. Like this? (example: Prague)

6. Modelling the effect of urban regeneration funding
Particular areal selection in which urban regeneration has effect Assumed to cause an increase in the speed of housing supply change with a fixed cost of early supply change in a pixel Do this until the funds for urban regeneration are exhausted in a region No effect on attractiveness assumed

7. Network developments
Recorded changes Derived from merged product of 2005, and future transtools network provided by IPTS
Yet unknown changes Those links that are not upgraded, according to the provided transtools data.

8. Recorded changes: not just upgrades

9. Effect of recorded network changes

10. What about yet unknown funded projects?
We assume investments increase effective speeds
Expected effect of transport investments in regions: x% increase in effective speeds

12. Allocating unknown network investments
Local road
Trunk road
Motorway
Sample of EU projects per lane*
Eu 2.1M
Eu 2.5M
Modelled costs per km of road**
Eu 3.0M
Eu 4.2M
Eu 10.0M
* Compiled by presenter
** Local roads assumed to be 70% of the costs of a trunk road (according to CE Delft report)

13. Implemented rules: the right track?
Links with the largest flows are upgraded
Costs of recorded upgrades are taken from the budget
Upgrades to the following speeds
Motorways: 130 km/u
National roads: 100 km/u
Local and regional: 80 km/u
New roads and supposedly upgraded roads not given additional upgrades
Additional: Largest flows x share of foreign transport (not yet implemented)

14. Modelled transport flows to allocate investments
Insert map of flows

15. Current results Roadtype Fundable kilometers Allocated upgrades
Motorway
239 km
149 km
National roads
1823 km
1020 km
Local/regional roads
3258 km
1851 km
Insert map of upgrades. Possible solutions: more refined flow allocation mechanism (to ensure that all roads ‘get’ traffic); upgrading to local zones.

16. Other transport related funding
Cycle tracks and urban transportation: fixed 5% increase in Pi of existing urban areas (increases population densities). Railways: attempt to model addition of railways on total accessibility (but means to weight influence of roads and rails is difficult). Fallback: a fixed increase in attractivity of urban areas that have a station with increased connectivity